Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[upstater]

I guess Miami OH is the best team in the country? They're just winning after all.

I think he said UConn beat these teams ranked ahead of us.

 

[upstater]

CBS is a stacked region. Easily the most challenging.

5-8 right now on the 2 line is a moving target. Lots can still happen there. I feel like the first 5 seeds are rock solid, lots of play in the next ten teams.

The 1 seed that gets Gonzaga as a 4 seed is happy.

 

[caw]

They do - I hate Duke as a matchup. They can switch all over and have some long defenders that are agile. Then they can bully us with Boozer.

Duke all comes down to Ngongba and if he can stay out of foul trouble. With him in their double bigs are a handful, where Tarris/Reibe have to stay on Ngongba and that leaves Karaban to defend Boozer, which is not ideal from a physicality standpoint. Less worried if Ngongba gets into foul trouble (as he is want to do) and they have Brown and Boozer in the game. They are better defensively bc Brown is a heck of a help defender, but I feel they would have to defend Tarris with Boozer at that point and Brown's big advantage gets pulled from the paint as he chases Karaban.

The POA defense by Sarr is impressive and they have height/length but I wouldn't call their other guards/wings particularly great defenders.

Realistically the top three teams all have matchup concerns for UConn because they all play double bigs who are big and physical and (Cadeau aside) have height/length everywhere on the court. All three have three solid bigs to keep that size on the court at all times.

Boozer, Johnson/Lendeborg, Peat/Awaka are the guys Karaban/Stewart will have to be able to defend if it comes down to a FF - NC and things go chalk.

 

[auror]

I don’t hate us matching up with Dook. Dook is good but highly reliant on Boozer (similar to how Purdue was so reliant in Edey). In situations like that Hurley has shown time and again that he can game plan to limit the damage. If we play out A game I’m not really worried about any of these teams.

The rest of the guys on Duke are 5x more talented than 2024 Purdue's guys, and they play much better defense. Edey was a force and an incredible scorer, but Boozer is also a much better playmaker for others, so it would not be as easy gameplan to shut everyone else down. He's a point forward.

 

[KingAG]

The rest of the guys on Duke are 5x more talented than 2024 Purdue's guys, and they play much better defense. Edey was a force and an incredible scorer, but Boozer is also a much better playmaker for others, so it would not be as easy gameplan to shut everyone else down. He's a point forward.

Hope we get to see it! I think it’d be a great game. UConn/Duke. Hurley/Scheyer. NC? Theatre

 

[KingAG]

Duke all comes down to Ngongba and if he can stay out of foul trouble. With him in their double bigs are a handful, where Tarris/Reibe have to stay on Ngongba and that leaves Karaban to defend Boozer, which is not ideal from a physicality standpoint. Less worried if Ngongba gets into foul trouble (as he is want to do) and they have Brown and Boozer in the game. They are better defensively bc Brown is a heck of a help defender, but I feel they would have to defend Tarris with Boozer at that point and Brown's big advantage gets pulled from the paint as he chases Karaban.

The POA defense by Sarr is impressive and they have height/length but I wouldn't call their other guards/wings particularly great defenders.

Realistically the top three teams all have matchup concerns for UConn because they all play double bigs who are big and physical and (Cadeau aside) have height/length everywhere on the court. All three have three solid bigs to keep that size on the court at all times.

Boozer, Johnson/Lendeborg, Peat/Awaka are the guys Karaban/Stewart will have to be able to defend if it comes down to a FF - NC and things go chalk.

Their switch ability is what worries me. That tends to stall our offense out.

That’d have to be a big Taris and Silas game. We’re gonna have to score some 1:1 buckets

 

[superjohn]

They do - I hate Duke as a matchup. They can switch all over and have some long defenders that are agile. Then they can bully us with Boozer.

You hate UConn against Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas etc.

 

[Leebo]

I think he said UConn beat these teams ranked ahead of us.

Woah, woah, this is getting too complicated. Miami OH makes it simple. Zero losses. Winning tells it all. 🙃

 

[KingAG]

You hate UConn against Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas etc.

Yea my 2-3 teams aren’t enough apparently. I should fear the entire top 25

 

[FightOnCT]

The fact that our only true competition is Florida means that we have a good grasp on the 1 seed. Committee has shown to not look deeply into conference tourneys.

Florida looks the part but their resume is severely lacking relative to the other 1 seeds. We’re in control of our own destiny at this point, and I’m honestly not scared of any one team, they’re all strong and assuming we make it, we’ll eventually face someone.

 

[UConNick]

I just did another bracket projection, and I think that, barring anything really unforeseen, us and Florida as the 1 and 2 in the South is very likely. The last two weeks have been big in separating them from the other major candidates in that area (Houston, Iowa St). Still some games left, of course, but we should be mentally prepared for seeing the Gators on Selection Sunday and the probable rematch in the Elite Eight.

This is how I have the top sixteen breaking down, pod sites included (s-curve no. in parens):

E: 1. Duke - Greenville (1), 2. Iowa St - St. Louis (8), 3. Nebraska - Oklahoma City (9), 4. Kansas - Tampa (15)

MW: 1. Michigan - Buffalo (2), 2. Houston - Oklahoma City (6), 3. Purdue - Buffalo (10), 4. Virginia - Portland (16)

W: 1. Arizona - San Diego (3), 2. Illinois - St. Louis (7), 3. Alabama - Greenville (12), 4. Gonzaga - Portland (13)

S: 1. UConn - Philly (4), 2. Florida - Tampa (5), 3. Michigan St - Philly (11), 4. Texas Tech - San Diego (14)

Some interesting tidbits:

• I have our 8-9 game as Clemson and Georgia. None of the teams in the 8-9 area really scare me, but some certainly have higher ceilings than others, including perhaps Clemson, recent lull excepted.
  • While we're on it, I have our 16 as UMBC. Yikes, purely because of vibes.
• Saint Louis, if they fall to the 7 line (as I have them), could very possibly land in St. Louis for their pod. I have them in the Illinois pod, but neither the Illini nor Iowa St would be thrilled. I wonder if the committee would actually do it.
• The top sixteen feel pretty locked in. Just as there seems to be some separation between the 3s and 4s, there seems to be a lot of separation between the 4s and 5s (I have 17. Arkansas, 18. Vanderbilt, 19. St. John's, 20. Tennessee) - maybe if one of those SEC teams goes on a run or St. John's gets us in the BE final?
• The bubble freaking sucks. My last four in are Ohio St, Auburn, New Mexico, and TCU. First four out: Virginia Tech, SDSU, Indiana, and VCU. Do we really need a 76-team tourney?

 

[Scrutineer]

@Scrutineer , did Dan Hurley prove he is worth the money yesterday

What are you talking about?

 

[RuffRuff]

Duke all comes down to Ngongba and if he can stay out of foul trouble. With him in their double bigs are a handful, where Tarris/Reibe have to stay on Ngongba and that leaves Karaban to defend Boozer, which is not ideal from a physicality standpoint. Less worried if Ngongba gets into foul trouble (as he is want to do) and they have Brown and Boozer in the game. They are better defensively bc Brown is a heck of a help defender, but I feel they would have to defend Tarris with Boozer at that point and Brown's big advantage gets pulled from the paint as he chases Karaban.

The POA defense by Sarr is impressive and they have height/length but I wouldn't call their other guards/wings particularly great defenders.

Realistically the top three teams all have matchup concerns for UConn because they all play double bigs who are big and physical and (Cadeau aside) have height/length everywhere on the court. All three have three solid bigs to keep that size on the court at all times.

Boozer, Johnson/Lendeborg, Peat/Awaka are the guys Karaban/Stewart will have to be able to defend if it comes down to a FF - NC and things go chalk.

Maliq Brown is a stud defender. They could throw him on a Mullins. Good view. Wish others could break it down without simply saying, they don’t worry me with no substance to the take. At this stage it’s all about matchups, so tell me how we matchup not just what stinks about the team.

 

[ToolzieFan]

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Maliq Brown is a stud defender. They could throw him on a Mullins. Good view. Wish others could break it down without simply saying, they don’t worry me with no substance to the take. At this stage it’s all about matchups, so tell me how we matchup not just what stinks about the team.

Assuming that we won't be the fourth two seed, I really need you to explain to me how the matchup, if and when we face Duke would be different if it happens with both schools as seeds than it would be with us as a two seed.

If we do end up as the two seed in Duke's bracket, the only matchup difference would be a two day preparation for the game instead of possibly six or seven days, which could be argued as an advantage to us as our offensive system is difficult to prepare for.

I still believe you are spending far too much time worrying about something that may not even happen. I know you're fully convinced that tournaments from here on in will run fully chalk. I have my doubts, based entirely on many decades of watching this. A minimum of two or three higher seeds will get bumped each of the first two days (round of 64) of the tournament, then there will.be upsets each additional round. I doubt if there will be more than one or two instances over the next ten tournaments where all four one seeds make it to the final four.

I will again say that for this tournament, for the first three games we will be the better seed, should be the better team, and if we get knocked off in one of those games it will be entirely on us, not whether we had a one or a two next two our name.

After that (regional finals, final four), whoever we face will be good enough to have made it that far, and there will be a very good chance that a couple of the top eight seeds wouldn't have gotten there.

From the elite eight forward, all you can do is take your chances against whoever is left, and from that point you're either good enough to do it or you aren't.

 

[KingAG]

Maliq Brown is a stud defender. They could throw him on a Mullins. Good view. Wish others could break it down without simply saying, they don’t worry me with no substance to the take. At this stage it’s all about matchups, so tell me how we matchup not just what stinks about the team.

Their switch ability is what worries me. That tends to stall our offense out.

That’d have to be a big Taris and Silas game. We’re gonna have to score some 1:1 buckets

Strawman Alert!!!!!!!!! Lmfao

 

[Stinger92860]

Just thinking ahead in doomed mode, if we get to the BE finals I think we are the 4th 1 seed regardless of the outcome. If we win the BE tournament and someone ahead of us loses before their finals we have a chance to move up a slot.

 

[Stinger92860]

Their switch ability is what worries me. That tends to stall our offense out.

Is switch ability > twitch ability?

 

[CTBasketball]

Duke all comes down to Ngongba and if he can stay out of foul trouble. With him in their double bigs are a handful, where Tarris/Reibe have to stay on Ngongba and that leaves Karaban to defend Boozer, which is not ideal from a physicality standpoint. Less worried if Ngongba gets into foul trouble (as he is want to do) and they have Brown and Boozer in the game. They are better defensively bc Brown is a heck of a help defender, but I feel they would have to defend Tarris with Boozer at that point and Brown's big advantage gets pulled from the paint as he chases Karaban.

The POA defense by Sarr is impressive and they have height/length but I wouldn't call their other guards/wings particularly great defenders.

Realistically the top three teams all have matchup concerns for UConn because they all play double bigs who are big and physical and (Cadeau aside) have height/length everywhere on the court. All three have three solid bigs to keep that size on the court at all times.

Boozer, Johnson/Lendeborg, Peat/Awaka are the guys Karaban/Stewart will have to be able to defend if it comes down to a FF - NC and things go chalk.

I can’t imagine us beating a team that has Boozer, Lendeborg, Peat, Awaka, Hough, Johnson, AND maybe Tugler.

 

[uconngb]

You hate UConn against Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas etc.

He hates UConn.......you could have just stopped there

 

[HuskyHawk]

Assuming that we won't be the fourth two seed, I really need you to explain to me how the matchup, if and when we face Duke would be different if it happens with both schools as seeds than it would be with us as a two seed.

If we do end up as the two seed in Duke's bracket, the only matchup difference would be a two day preparation for the game instead of possibly six or seven days, which could be argued as an advantage to us as our offensive system is difficult to prepare for.

I still believe you are spending far too much time worrying about something that may not even happen. I know you're fully convinced that tournaments from here on in will run fully chalk. I have my doubts, based entirely on many decades of watching this. A minimum of two or three higher seeds will get bumped each of the first two days (round of 64) of the tournament, then there will.be upsets each additional round. I doubt if there will be more than one or two instances over the next ten tournaments where all four one seeds make it to the final four.

I will again say that for this tournament, for the first three games we will be the better seed, should be the better team, and if we get knocked off in one of those games it will be entirely on us, not whether we had a one or a two next two our name.

After that (regional finals, final four), whoever we face will be good enough to have made it that far, and there will be a very good chance that a couple of the top eight seeds wouldn't have gotten there.

From the elite eight forward, all you can do is take your chances against whoever is left, and from that point you're either good enough to do it or you aren't.

Which is why worrying about it is pointless (here we are on page 19). Who's healthy? Who's hot? What are the matchups? There are specific teams that aren't great for us and there are teams that we would be very bad for them. But some of those better seeded teams will be gone anyway, like when Arkansas knocked off Kansas a few years back.

Once you're in the second weekend, expect a tough game.

 

[RuffRuff]

I don’t hate us matching up with Dook. Dook is good but highly reliant on Boozer (similar to how Purdue was so reliant in Edey). In situations like that Hurley has shown time and again that he can game plan to limit the damage. If we play out A game I’m not really worried about any of these teams.

We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer. This Duke team has far better talent outside of Boozer than that Purdue team had outside of Edey. If you want to see the talent that Purdue had outside of Edey, you can see them now landsliding 2 years later. Duke has at least two first round draft picks alongside Boozer, potentially 3.

They are a tough matchup - but like one poster said, not really worth worrying about for now.

 

[Tenspro2002]

All we have to do is is beat Marquette and we’re going to be the 4th #1 seed. But I agree with FCF — small differences in placement really doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be #4 than #20 but 4 v 5 in the nation doesn’t make a huge difference. It means your sweet sixteen game is against #13 rather than #12. And, given conference and geographic considerations, the #4 overall could get 12 rather than 13 anyway,

Actually I interpret the geographic considerations the other way. I think as #4 overall, having to shuffle around conference foes, etc., makes it more likely we face #15 (a lesser 4 seed) instead of #13, not #12 (a 3 seed they'd have to demote).

 

[Tenspro2002]

Some agendas are going to be laid bare pretty quickly. Unless Iowa State beats Arizona tonight, we should only need 2 more wins to lock up the last #1 seed.

Yes, Florida looks impressive (and isn't counted on that list, but they started much farther back and we beat them head to head).

 

[Samoo]

We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer. This Duke team has far better talent outside of Boozer than that Purdue team had outside of Edey. If you want to see the talent that Purdue had outside of Edey, you can see them now landsliding 2 years later. Duke has at least two first round draft picks alongside Boozer, potentially 3.

They are a tough matchup - but like one poster said, not really worth worrying about for now.

Michigan
Arizona
Duke