Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[RuffRuff]

The idea that everyone is always out to get us kinda gets tiresome fellas.

No one is out to get us - too much of this board thinks that way. Not sure why.

We are right where we need to be. The national view has us behind 4-5 teams in the odds to win, as those 4-5 teams have stellar front courts and that's the theme this year, it's what the top teams have and how they win. Houston is out in front of us because they have Tugler & Cenac.

For Uconn to win, it's going to have to execute and outshoot, which is a lower set of odds than muscling down, winning in the paint, over the course of 6 games. And in this field, they're simply seeing that you need a formidable front court to face off with those teams in the top 4-5 if you are going to win 6 in a row.

 

[FightOnCT]

Not saying I disagree with anything you said, but guard play is typically a bigger factor of tourney success than frontcourt productivity. It’s why I’m not sold on Florida despite being elite — I don’t trust them.

 

[Umami Zen]

No one is out to get us - too much of this board thinks that way. Not sure why.

We are right where we need to be. The national view has us behind 4-5 teams in the odds to win, as those 4-5 teams have stellar front courts and that's the theme this year, it's what the top teams have and how they win. Houston is out in front of us because they have Tugler & Cenac.

For Uconn to win, it's going to have to execute and outshoot, which is a lower set of odds than muscling down, winning in the paint, over the course of 6 games. And in this field, they're simply seeing that you need a formidable front court to face off with those teams in the top 4-5 if you are going to win 6 in a row.

Counterpoint to the "stellar front courts" is team rebounding-transition D to O for some easy buckets-controlling TOs- and getting the right guys to the FT line. Beat the big guys down the floor and or get them in early foul trouble.
Our guards/wings-SFs two way play will be critical.

As they say. It's why they play the games. Roll the ball out and see what happens.

 

[FightOnCT]

It really is that simple and that is what UConn exposed:

• They can't shoot from 3
• They aren't efficient scoring elsewhere on the floor either
• They aren't even good at FTs

They are really good at 1) getting the foul line 2) getting rebounds and 3) forcing turnovers

They need to do all 3 of these things exceptionally well to beat quality teams, which they did in MSG but did them just at an average level in Hartford and that was it.

They miss a lot of shots: if they aren't getting that rebound to then go back up and draw a foul, they are toast. If they aren't forcing live ball turnovers to get good fastbreak looks, they are toast. It is that simple.

It's a poorly constructed team that does not add up to the sum of its parts.

They basically have to create enough extra possessions to outscore opponents. I’m surprised Pitino would create a more talented roster with the exact same issues as last year’s.

 

[RuffRuff]

It really is that simple and that is what UConn exposed:

• They can't shoot from 3
• They aren't efficient scoring elsewhere on the floor either
• They aren't even good at FTs

They are really good at 1) getting the foul line 2) getting rebounds and 3) forcing turnovers

They need to do all 3 of these things exceptionally well to beat quality teams, which they did in MSG but did them just at an average level in Hartford and that was it.

They miss a lot of shots: if they aren't getting that rebound to then go back up and draw a foul, they are toast. If they aren't forcing live ball turnovers to get good fastbreak looks, they are toast. It is that simple.

It's a poorly constructed team that does not add up to the sum of its parts.

On a national level, Zubi is overrated. He's a 6'9" center with a nice motor, doesn't really play above the rim. He'll get his numbers against average front courts. He's essentially a power forward across many of the top teams.

 

[Lafayette]

But the main issue I have with the SEC is at the beginning of the year, almost all were considered Quad 1 team. South Carolina was actually a Quad 1, lost to Butler, got hammered by all the SEC and dropped out of Quad 1 only after it was clear in SEC play they were a dud. So any SEC team that beat up that bottom dweller while in Quad 1 gets a Quad 1 win.

Florida in 8 games played the bottom two teams 3 times. I think Alabama was 17th when Florida got them at home. Same with the other 2 ranked teams in the SEC - they were > 17th ranked.

St. John's could have done the same wit playing Marquette twice, Georgetown once, and play Seton Hall, Villanova and us at home and win and sprinkle in a win vs Butler and Xavier they would not have gotten the press Florida is getting. Remember, the SEC has huge TV deals and ESPN is just a mouthpiece for what the big conferences want to say.

Then Duke is plastered on ESPN for their play vs NC State. Seriously, Seton Hall beat NC State by 10+ but didn't merit a single line of news then.

 

[controlfade]

To be fair:

Was up on Duke with 30 seconds to go at Cameron Indoor (currently 1 in country)
Lost in first game of year on a neutral court to #2 AZ, which was in Vegas (home game)- close game
To us at MSG close (basically home game #4 Uconn)

These were basically three away games. We scheduled almost all of our OOC games at home(ish), no travel. These aren't top 10 teams, they are top 4.

Boogie Fland - McD AA. He hasn't totally panned out, but he's still good and here at the end of sophomore year.

Yes, the SEC is a fat middle league that plays no defense, with no good front courts outside of Florida, but Florida is still very good.

Yes they have couple bad losses, all to tourney teams. We lost to Creighton at home and won by the skin of our teeth against bad teams many times. #perspective

They are damn good. Not perfect, but have a deep, dominant FC with a McD AA PG and adequate BC.



Separately, Nebraska throttled - more 3-4 seed mushiness.

to be fair:

they were not top 4 teams when they were played!
were down double digits in each of those games and yes came back to make the games close but couldnt finish a one.
Arizona was not in the top 10 when they played.
def a more favorable venue for us

we played Kansas at PA, guess that's not traveling

there are plenty of McD AA that have not been good in college, that wasnt the point. If he was our starting PG you and everyone else would be livid. He can not shoot and scores on volume.

all i have said, Florida is very good but this crazy love for them is ridiculous, they have done what they are supposed too but it is not nearly as impressive as some people are trying to make it out to be. I do not doubt that they are a top 10ish team but if they are the 2 seed in our bracket i would be perfectly ok with it.

 

[RuffRuff]

Counterpoint to the "stellar front courts" is team rebounding-transition D to O for some easy buckets-controlling TOs- and getting the right guys to the FT line. Beat the big guys down the floor and or get them in early foul trouble.
Our guards/wings-SFs two way play will be critical.

As they say. It's why they play the games. Roll the ball out and see what happens.

Could be - we obviously want that chance. These teams are winning the old fashioned way. We'll have to counter - would really want to see it as I want to see what Hurley draws up.

 

[JB75]

So the real question is: if we lose a great game to St. John’s in the big east final and Florida wins the SEC title., Do they jump us for the number one spot? I think we seal the number one seed up if we can get to the BE championship. Should have it sealed with one BET victory. We ve been in top 5 all year, had an amazing non conference schedule and beat them outright.

 

[JungleLobo]

On a national level, Zubi is overrated. He's a 6'9" center with a nice motor, doesn't really play above the rim. He'll get his numbers against average front courts. He's essentially a power forward across many of the top teams.

Sounds like how Sanogo was described.

 

[7774]

But the main issue I have with the SEC is at the beginning of the year, almost all were considered Quad 1 team. South Carolina was actually a Quad 1, lost to Butler, got hammered by all the SEC and dropped out of Quad 1 only after it was clear in SEC play they were a dud. So any SEC team that beat up that bottom dweller while in Quad 1 gets a Quad 1 win.

Florida in 8 games played the bottom two teams 3 times. I think Alabama was 17th when Florida got them at home. Same with the other 2 ranked teams in the SEC - they were > 17th ranked.

St. John's could have done the same wit playing Marquette twice, Georgetown once, and play Seton Hall, Villanova and us at home and win and sprinkle in a win vs Butler and Xavier they would not have gotten the press Florida is getting. Remember, the SEC has huge TV deals and ESPN is just a mouthpiece for what the big conferences want to say.

Then Duke is plastered on ESPN for their play vs NC State. Seriously, Seton Hall beat NC State by 10+ but didn't merit a single line of news then.

That is not how it works.

 

[auror]

To be fair, I'm relatively sure the committee took in the results in 2024 when they made us the number one overall seed over Houston and Purdue, since they had both lost in their conference tournaments while we won ours. We were not ranked number one going into conference tournaments, iirc. But that's a pretty small shuffle, probably just shifting the entire regionals around who's in the top left corner, top right, etc.

Saturdays still usually count, and Purdue/Houston lost on Saturday (Purdue early at like 1pm) and UConn won on Sat in 2024.

It's Sundays that really don't count.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Lot of posts for who at the end of the day is in the 4 slot or 5 slot, will eventually play each other AND should beat anyone else that’s assigned to the South.

Already have a chip out of either slot, just go win in Wisconsin, win 3 in NYC and suit up for Philly.

I think it’s a major advantage to be the 1 in this scenario assuming Houston gets put in the South as the 3. Wouldn’t be easy to beat BOTH Houston (road game) then Florida (essentially a road game) in 48 hours.

 

[Enrique]

If we are a 2 seed, do we still have to go to the South Regional?

 

[JungleLobo]

I think it’s a major advantage to be the 1 in this scenario assuming Houston gets put in the South as the 3. Wouldn’t be easy to beat BOTH Houston (road game) then Florida (essentially a road game) in 48 hours.

There’s no way that #7 Houston is the worst 3 seed and gets back to the South.

They had some high quality losses that are going to result in them getting shipped, regardless of getting a 2 or a 3.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

If we are a 2 seed, do we still have to go to the South Regional?

Almost a guarantee if we are the “best 2 seed” on the s curve

 

[auror]

If we are a 2 seed, do we still have to go to the South Regional?

Maybe. Depends if we are the top 2, if duke is the top 1, and how the bracketing breaks with the conferences that have a lot of teams.

 

[Scoe]

The media having influence on giving Florida a 1 seed is wildly annoying.

 

[uconngb]

It sure seems like much ado about nothing if you ask me. Other than the “disrespect” people love to throw around on this board which is hooey, if it’s between us and FL it basically comes down to which color uniform we wear if we both make it to the Elite 8. Other than that, I don’t see any significant difference. Certainly not enough to spend so much time and energy worrying about it.

 

[BFieldHusky]

It sure seems like much ado about nothing if you ask me. Other than the “disrespect” people love to throw around on this board which is hooey, if it’s between us and FL it basically comes down to which color uniform we wear if we both make it to the Elite 8. Other than that, I don’t see any significant difference. Certainly not enough to spend so much time and energy worrying about it.

Big difference between the 3s and 4s this year.

 

[navery12]

It sure seems like much ado about nothing if you ask me. Other than the “disrespect” people love to throw around on this board which is hooey, if it’s between us and FL it basically comes down to which color uniform we wear if we both make it to the Elite 8. Other than that, I don’t see any significant difference. Certainly not enough to spend so much time and energy worrying about it.

Only a uniform color for the Elite 8 game but I'd say it's a noticeable difference the Sweet 16 game. Most of the 3 seeds are also in the conversation for a 2 as well. Either way it's a good opponent but I would much rather be facing the 4/5 seeds here than the 3 seeds

 

[JungleLobo]

Only a uniform color for the Elite 8 game but I'd say it's a noticeable difference the Sweet 16 game. Most of the 3 seeds are also in the conversation for a 2 as well. Either way it's a good opponent but I would much rather be facing the 4/5 seeds here than the 3 seeds

View attachment 117782

A banged up (for the year) Texas Tech or a team that saw UConn already?

I’d take Tech

 

[uconngb]

Big difference between the 3s and 4s this year.

Not really…..that whole group has been losing games left and right lately

Does Purdue scare you more than Kansas??
Nebraska more than Alabama??

There’s a huge drop after the first 8-10 teams

 

[uconngb]

Only a uniform color for the Elite 8 game but I'd say it's a noticeable difference the Sweet 16 game. Most of the 3 seeds are also in the conversation for a 2 as well. Either way it's a good opponent but I would much rather be facing the 4/5 seeds here than the 3 seeds

View attachment 117782

Let’s take this as gospel. I’d be willing to bet at least one and maybe 2 of those 3s don’t last past the first weekend.

 

[navery12]

Let’s take this as gospel. I’d be willing to bet at least one and maybe 2 of those 3s don’t last past the first weekend.

You're probably right, and it's also pretty likely 2-3 of those 4/5 seeds also lose before the first weekend. There's a reason everyone has been talking about the 10-12 teams who have a chance to win a championship this year

 

[Tenspro2002]

The idea that everyone is always out to get us kinda gets tiresome fellas.

"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you."

 

[Lafayette]

oh but the best 3 goes with the best 1. worst 3 to worst 1

 

[BGesus4]

Seeding tiebreaker should be the lower nil budget

 

[FfldCntyFan]

They were favored in the 2014 semis after we beat them in December. We beat 'em again as you may recall.

They were the third (after Nova & Mich St) "may be the best team in the tournament" that we knocked off on the way to that title.

 

[KingAG]

Knicks don’t play until 9. That means I get to hate watch st John’s in peace