Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[RuffRuff]

Duke all comes down to Ngongba and if he can stay out of foul trouble. With him in their double bigs are a handful, where Tarris/Reibe have to stay on Ngongba and that leaves Karaban to defend Boozer, which is not ideal from a physicality standpoint. Less worried if Ngongba gets into foul trouble (as he is want to do) and they have Brown and Boozer in the game. They are better defensively bc Brown is a heck of a help defender, but I feel they would have to defend Tarris with Boozer at that point and Brown's big advantage gets pulled from the paint as he chases Karaban.

The POA defense by Sarr is impressive and they have height/length but I wouldn't call their other guards/wings particularly great defenders.

Realistically the top three teams all have matchup concerns for UConn because they all play double bigs who are big and physical and (Cadeau aside) have height/length everywhere on the court. All three have three solid bigs to keep that size on the court at all times.

Boozer, Johnson/Lendeborg, Peat/Awaka are the guys Karaban/Stewart will have to be able to defend if it comes down to a FF - NC and things go chalk.

Size is in this year, that is for sure. 4s and 5s, and in some cases big 3s (Florida & UM), seems to be the new trend. It's hard to argue with because you can physically dominate. The top teams are winning in the paint/boards.

Michigan
Arizona
Duke

All three are very good - just looking ahead. Shall we break down Auburn? When you're heading into the prize fight, it's kind of natural to look at the best in the ring.

He hates UConn.......you could have just stopped there

Love UConn - I would apply that word to you though.

 

[Peacefrog]

Just thinking ahead in doomed mode, if we get to the BE finals I think we are the 4th 1 seed regardless of the outcome. If we win the BE tournament and someone ahead of us loses before their finals we have a chance to move up a slot.

That would surprise me. That would put whichever team loses at three losses, equal to us but still with a stronger resume. And in Arizona's case, a head-to-head win. We're pretty locked into the #4 or #5 overall seed in my opinion.

 

[RuffRuff]

That would surprise me. That would put whichever team loses at three losses, equal to us but still with a stronger resume. And in Arizona's case, a head-to-head win. We're pretty locked into the #4 or #5 overall seed in my opinion.

At this point, likely a shoe in that we are going to be either the 1 or the 2 in the South. How much that matters, who knows. In a case like this, it would be the difference of playing a Purdue or a Texas Tech in the S16.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Bracket matrix has UConn predominantly as the last 1 seed.

 

[Inyatkin]

"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you

 

[tzznandrew]

"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you

Edey averaged 24-12 and won every conceivable POY award.

Boozer is very good. He is not senior year Zach Edey.

I'm not convinced UConn beats Duke if they meet up, but I think if UConn actually shows up there's a very good chance. When this team plays to potential—and other than the first St. John's game they do against every good team—they can beat anyone. And they have key players (and a coach) who have won titles. Karaban has two. That experience matters, and only Florida has that.

 

[BFieldHusky]

"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you

I think half is under selling it lol.

 

[Tenspro2002]

At this point, likely a shoe in that we are going to be either the 1 or the 2 in the South. How much that matters, who knows. In a case like this, it would be the difference of playing a Purdue or a Texas Tech in the S16.

Voila. We're #4 overall. And instead of facing #13 overall, we get #14, while #5 Florida gets #10.

In this version, being on the #1 line makes a full seed line difference in the quality of our opponent, which matters when there's a decent drop off after #11 or so overall.

 

[RuffRuff]

"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you

I absolutely don't think we are done for - it's conversational. I think Hurley is a good enough coach to devise something that could counter, simply stating it would be a real challenge as they have a physical advantage.

Duke has kept 9 of their las 13 opponents in the 50's. No one is cracking out of the 60's. They defend. Defense travels. Probably premature.

 

[uconngb]

Michigan
Arizona
Duke

Everyone but Uconn and yet he posts 85 times a day on this board

 

[uconngb]

I think half is under selling it lol.

By about half

 

[cwh20]

My general thoughts on the NCAA committee. You’ll find that I’m a cynic.
1 - they always congratulate themselves first on doing a great job on a tough assignment. I admit it can be tough but I don’t trust them to be fully honest. A team under consideration has their rep step out of the room. Please! They can see when their team was given the benefit of the doubt when they return and they are going to know who to thank. Oh. we (Dook & UNC) get to play in NC again this year. Gee, thanks guys. Also, and I don’t know, how often are the committee members turned over?
2 - there are so many criteria that they can emphasize favoring one team over another. There will always be at least one item that backs up their position. Then don’t talk about the criteria that conflicts with those choices. Every year it’s a moving target on what they looked at most. That’s because they decide what can justify their decisions while bracketing.
3 - I liked the last 10 game record emphasis which they got rid of. The games in February and the conference tourneys are going to be more telling than early season games. Everything counts but the last games are a better indicator of a team’s potential.

Back to the committee’s job:
4 - they don’t have time to rebracket based on Sunday results. The BE had a Sunday final in the early years. There’s no way they can take that result into account unless the two finalist were really even going in and they can give the better pre determined slot to the winner. So, not their fault but it’s something I don’t like.
5 - have a big picture overseer pop in to check out the progress every now and then to take a quick look and see problems. I’m sure the committee can get lost in the weeds. Prime example of screwing up was having BYU playing on Sunday if they advanced. That’s a BIG blunder that can’t happen. And mistakes like that are pointed out immediately by the media getting their first glimpse. So have a big picture guy look at it before they reveal.

Here’s hoping for #7! Go UConn!!

 

[kobebeanbryant]

"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you

At the risk of continuing this hypothetical argument…

Karaban has well documented struggles defensively against big/athletic 4s.

Hoping if we play Duke/UM we get more creative with matchups and Karaban doesn’t spend significant time matched up on Boozer/Yaxel. That is not likely to go well.

 

[navery12]

At the risk of continuing this hypothetical argument…

Karaban has well documented struggles defensively against big/athletic 4s.

Hoping if we play Duke/UM we get more creative with matchups and Karaban doesn’t spend significant time matched up on Boozer/Yaxel. That is not likely to go well.

We know he's not coming off the floor, so who do you propose we put on Boozer if it's not Karaban? Yaxel is the 3 so it wouldn't be Karaban anyway

 

[RuffRuff]

We know he's not coming off the floor, so who do you propose we put on Boozer if it's not Karaban? Yaxel is the 3 so it wouldn't be Karaban anyway

Karaban - Johnson, Yaxel - Mullins.

Again, nothing to overthink now. Against any of these bigger teams, our spacing and movement would be huge on offense, Tarris holding down the paint would be massive on defense.

 

[RuffRuff]

Edey averaged 24-12 and won every conceivable POY award.

Boozer is very good. He is not senior year Zach Edey.

I'm not convinced UConn beats Duke if they meet up, but I think if UConn actually shows up there's a very good chance. When this team plays to potential—and other than the first St. John's game they do against every good team—they can beat anyone. And they have key players (and a coach) who have won titles. Karaban has two. That experience matters, and only Florida has that.

Boozer ain't Edey, but he has a higher Evan Maya rating than Edey 2024. Maya's # isn't the gold standard, but it's something. And it's not to say Boozer is better than Edey but the kid is really good. He does a lot more than Edey, just not as dominant on the interior obviously. He's shooting over 40% from three. Boozer may have one, if not, the highest rating of all time on his site since began in 2010.

Boozer - 14.5
Edey - 14.3
Flagg - 13

 

[connVA]

Kimani, Luke, and Danny have watched plenty of tape on both Duke and Michigan and I’m guessing they’ve already started formulating ideas that they’ll solidify if and when we have to deal with either. They cooked up “Edey Island” and they’ll have something tasty ready for these guys too.

 

[uconn_jack]

If UConn and Duke meet, it would probably be a defense of AK playing Boozer straight up expecting he will get his and try to shut everyone else down to the extent possible. Not that AK can't do an ok job defensively on him, but not sure switching around defenders or double teaming him would be the best option.

 

[Lafayette]

Meanwhile we are now 4th ranked properly only teams with same wins and one less loss ahead of us.

Ironically Florida is next and above teams with more wins and less losses is a head scratcher as all Florida did was beat 3 nominally ranked teams at home and then beat up on bottom dweller SC and Miss St for 3 of those recent wins. They didn't play a top 10 team or even top 15. More "SEC is great nonsense"

 

[Lafayette]

If UConn and Duke meet, it would probably be a defense of AK playing Boozer straight up expecting he will get his and try to shut everyone else down to the extent possible. Not that AK can't do an ok job defensively on him, but not sure switching around defenders or double teaming him would be the best option.

I think we'd run a Purdue defense - let Boozer score but no one else.

 

[Trudy Gay]

If ISU wins at Arizona tonight, do they steal the last 1 seed? At least for now?

 

[RuffRuff]

If ISU wins at Arizona tonight, do they steal the last 1 seed? At least for now?

No way, not after getting smoked at home by TT. Would need some serious winning and us some serious losing, to get in front of us, then Florida. I've seen them on the 3 line.

They're not that good - not a contender.

 

[controlfade]

Meanwhile we are now 4th ranked properly only teams with same wins and one less loss ahead of us.

Ironically Florida is next and above teams with more wins and less losses is a head scratcher as all Florida did was beat 3 nominally ranked teams at home and then beat up on bottom dweller SC and Miss St for 3 of those recent wins. They didn't play a top 10 team or even top 15. More "SEC is great nonsense"

i know the SEC is the 2nd rated conference but outside of Florida all the other teams seem to be about the equivalent of Villanova at the best. Vandy, Bama, Tenn, UK they all are flawed and far from great.

 

[auror]

If ISU wins at Arizona tonight, do they steal the last 1 seed? At least for now?

Only if they won by 30. And probably not even then.

 

[tzznandrew]

Ironically Florida is next and above teams with more wins and less losses is a head scratcher as all Florida did was beat 3 nominally ranked teams at home and then beat up on bottom dweller SC and Miss St for 3 of those recent wins. They didn't play a top 10 team or even top 15. More "SEC is great nonsense"

It's not just about wins and losses, otherwise Miami (OH) should be #1.

Florida hasn't lost since January. Their predictive metrics are significantly better than ours. They'll also win the SEC outright. Doesn't have to be "SEC is great nonsense," the SEC is down relative to last year but much better than the Big East.

UConn should have the final #1 seed barring a crazy catastrophe (which would need to include a loss at Marquette) because of their strong wins, WAB, etc. But Florida is playing like they belong in that top trio of teams right now.