Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 15 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

With all the movement (losses from ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue) this past week, UF could easily be the top 2 seed but are a ways from UConn still.
 
caw said:
With all the movement (losses from ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue) this past week, UF could easily be the top 2 seed but are a ways from UConn still.
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UConn would have to lose next 2 and Florida win out. They may move to the #5, which could put them in our bracket - no ideal. Easily the two seed I'd least like to see.

Gonna be a fight now for the 2 lines between Florida, ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue.
 
RuffRuff said:
UConn would have to lose next 2 and Florida win out. They may move to the #5, which could put them in our bracket - no ideal. Easily the two seed I'd least like to see.

Gonna be a fight now for the 2 lines between Florida, ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue.
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Florida/Illinois would be tied for my least wanted to play because UConn already played them. Illinois has a higher ceiling and is a crap shoot in many ways with their ability to shoot but Florida the higher floor. Houston/ISU would be like playing SJU/SH again in many ways but at a higher level. Purdue would be ideal IMO but I would bet they are in Dukes region if they are a two seed.
 
auror said:
Including the conference tournaments they definitely can. You lose WAB for losses don't forget. We could finish down at 7.5 or so and they can add 1.4 in the regular season and like 2.0 in the tournament. So would go from 6.6 to 10 or so. Well above us.

#1 seed selection is based on a mix of predictive and resume metrics. If they even get close in WAB/resumes and have far superior predictive metrics, they could still get it. Though of course the head to head tiebreaker may reign supreme if it's close.

But #1 seed in the South seems preettty likely at this point barring UConn losing the next 2.
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The conference tourneys don’t factor into the bracket these days since the committee is lazy
 
I think at this point, a win @Marquette next week wraps up the 1. I would feel a little more comfortable winning our 1st BET game just to be safe, but I think a win next week puts us almost in lock category.
 
BFieldHusky said:
I think at this point, a win @Marquette next week wraps up the 1. I would feel a little more comfortable winning our 1st BET game just to be safe, but I think a win next week puts us almost in lock category.
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Iowa State losing today gives us the inside track, and I think the only thing that would jeopardize it is then running the table and us losing to anyone other than Nova or St. John's.
 
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BFieldHusky said:
We should all be rooting for Arizona Monday night. If they beat Iowa St at home, Iowa St. will have 6 losses.
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I think ISU did themselves in today - doubt winning at AZ gives them any edge to coming back as a 1 seed at this point. TT handled them. They'd have to beat AZ and win multiple big games in the B12 tourney - and they're just honestly not that good.
 
Modern day metrics may be worse than ever. Once again showing how they're a self fulfilling prophecy

We beat IL, they have 7 losses, they play in the almighty B10 that hasn't won a tittle since 2000. "The body of work y'know," and Purdue couldn't even compete in 2024. They're still ahead of us

We beat FL, they have 6 losses, they play in the almighty SEC. Who is good in the SEC again? They all lose a lot. Walter Clayton Jr is not walking through the door. Their 2025 title might be the most fortuitous of all time. Along with VA in 2019. They're ahead of us

Houston just lost three straight, including to a team we beat in their house, they're still ahead of us

Purdue and ISU are ahead of us too, please

WINNING matters people, no matter what that math tries to tell you
 
willie99 said:
Modern day metrics may be worse than ever. Once again showing how they're a self fulfilling prophecy

We beat IL, they have 7 losses, they play in the almighty B10 that hasn't won a tittle since 2000. "The body of work y'know," and Purdue couldn't even compete in 2024. They're still ahead of us

We beat FL, they have 6 losses, they play in the almighty SEC. Who is good in the SEC again? They all lose a lot. Walter Clayton Jr is not walking through the door. Their 2025 title might be the most fortuitous of all time. Along with VA in 2019. They're ahead of us

Houston just lost three straight, including to a team we beat in their house, they're still ahead of us

Purdue and ISU are ahead of us too, please

WINNING matters people, no matter what that math tries to tell you
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What an original opinion that definitely hasn’t been posted 1000 times by other idiots. Maybe we’d look better in the predictive metrics if we hadn’t played a bunch of games at a level that had even a large percentage of this board questioning how good we are. We’re also ranked way above all those teams in WAB which, and you’re not going to believe this, also counts as math.
 
willie99 said:
Modern day metrics may be worse than ever. Once again showing how they're a self fulfilling prophecy

We beat IL, they have 7 losses, they play in the almighty B10 that hasn't won a tittle since 2000. "The body of work y'know," and Purdue couldn't even compete in 2024. They're still ahead of us

We beat FL, they have 6 losses, they play in the almighty SEC. Who is good in the SEC again? They all lose a lot. Walter Clayton Jr is not walking through the door. Their 2025 title might be the most fortuitous of all time. Along with VA in 2019. They're ahead of us

Houston just lost three straight, including to a team we beat in their house, they're still ahead of us

Purdue and ISU are ahead of us too, please

WINNING matters people, no matter what that math tries to tell you
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This post could be satire.
 
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The race for the final 1 seed this year reminds me of 2009. Pretty much the entire sports media was crying that Memphis deserved the final 1 seed over UConn. UConn gets the 1 then gets to the final four. Memphis didn’t even get to the elite 8.
 
I just showed why metrics and metrics alone are satire. Not everybody can appreciate the nuances of the truth, they need simple solutions to guide them.
 
willie99 said:
I just showed why metrics and metrics alone are satire. Not everybody can appreciate the nuances of the truth, they need simple solutions to guide them.
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I guess Miami OH is the best team in the country? They're just winning after all.
 
UConnTrumbull said:
The race for the final 1 seed this year reminds me of 2009. Pretty much the entire sports media was crying that Memphis deserved the final 1 seed over UConn. UConn gets the 1 then gets to the final four. Memphis didn’t even get to the elite 8.
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For me, it's as recent as 2024. They argued Purdue was the number one team in the country, based on metrics, based on the "body of work". They played in the almighty B10 dontchaknow. They lost in the conference championship game, so I think we became the number one overall seed (what a shame)

But Purdue never competed with us in the title game, blowout city. So much for that body of work and the almighty B10

We destroyed three mighty B10 teams in that tournament. Despite the fact that we were blown out by Creighton and the Big East teams gave us better games than any OOC team that year
 
Seems the battle for the final 1 seed may be down to UConn and Florida. I love the way Florida plays, especially their front line, but their guards leave something be desired in big games. That said, they are absolutely in contention for the Final Four and are a menace to play again. I think the final 1 seed may come down to UConn and Florida. Yes, the SEC is a better league than the Big East, but the SEC is not nearly the league it was last year or even close to the Big 10 or Big 12 this year. Florida has some nice league wins and certainly is pounding teams, but they don't have any great non-conference wins. UConn's non-conference wins are tremendous, UConn has last 2 Big East games and may end up finishing 18-2 in the league (I don't care what people think of the Big East, that's a tremendous job in a league with a lot of mediocre teams but no god awful teams), and most importantly to all the Jamal Mashburns, Bruce Pearls, and Seth Greenbergs, UConn beat Florida head to head this year. If that doesn't put UConn over the top for the 1 seed, then why are we playing the games.
 
Graham Doeren Bracketology
@GrahamDoeren


3-loss UConn's five most valuable WAB wins: Florida (N), Illinois (N), at Kansas, at Villanova, BYU (N)
6-loss Florida's: at Vandy, at Texas A&M, at UGA, at Texas, at Oklahoma
Much stronger top wins and half as many losses for UConn.

This pretty much sums it up. Again, if you want to give Florida the 1 seed go ahead, they are a great team, but stop playing the games then.
 
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duke zone and mich significantly better resumes than everyone else ; uconn other #1 and florida the 2 in UConn region … can’t see that changing no matter what ….the rest of the 2s and 3s totally unpredictable and open .
 
Would love to get the 1 seed, but if we don’t get the 1 in the South Region, wouldn’t we then just drop to the 2 in the same region? At that point, does it really matter? We are going to potentially face a top 4 seed and/or a team that is playing its best basketball of the season in the Sweet 16 regardless. Also, we are not going to have a home court/regional advantage in that region anyways.
 
UCLJ0211 said:
Would love to get the 1 seed, but if we don’t get the 1 in the South Region, wouldn’t we then just drop to the 2 in the same region? At that point, does it really matter? We are going to potentially face a top 4 seed and/or a team that is playing its best basketball of the season in the Sweet 16 regardless. Also, we are not going to have a home court/regional advantage in that region anyways.
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Yeah the narrative changed drastically when Duke beat Michigan and they have the clear path to the #1 overall. I don’t think we will drop below the “best 2 seed” unless we lose to Marquette and then on the Thursday of the BET. In other words, we’re not gonna be in the East.
 
UConnTrumbull said:
Yeah the narrative changed drastically when Duke beat Michigan and they have the clear path to the #1 overall. I don’t think we will drop below the “best 2 seed” unless we lose to Marquette and then on the Thursday of the BET. In other words, we’re not gonna be in the East.
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2 in the East w/Duke vs 1 in the South w/Florida is an interesting argument. Let's not forget Florida played Duke down to the wire in Cameron this year.

W/Duke - Scheyer hasn't seen us, isn't as a good a coach as Golden. Gets us a favorable geo.

W/Florida - we're not surprising Golden at this point, would be a revenge game, and it's out in Houston/no man's land.
 
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sdglast said:
Seems the battle for the final 1 seed may be down to UConn and Florida. I love the way Florida plays, especially their front line, but their guards leave something be desired in big games. That said, they are absolutely in contention for the Final Four and are a menace to play again. I think the final 1 seed may come down to UConn and Florida. Yes, the SEC is a better league than the Big East, but the SEC is not nearly the league it was last year or even close to the Big 10 or Big 12 this year. Florida has some nice league wins and certainly is pounding teams, but they don't have any great non-conference wins. UConn's non-conference wins are tremendous, UConn has last 2 Big East games and may end up finishing 18-2 in the league (I don't care what people think of the Big East, that's a tremendous job in a league with a lot of mediocre teams but no god awful teams), and most importantly to all the Jamal Mashburns, Bruce Pearls, and Seth Greenbergs, UConn beat Florida head to head this year. If that doesn't put UConn over the top for the 1 seed, then why are we playing the games.
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It’s for the South, so slots 4 & 5 on S-curve. Marginal opponent difference in each round. The 1 vs. the 2 is the same, marginal.
 
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