Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 12 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

Do you know the tickets aren’t already sold? If so, is your theory that it’s about the NCAA wanting to reward scalpers?
Geographic preference = having more of your fans at the game. If you disagree take it up with auror he explained how the committee balances the s curve with geographic preference.
 
Do you know the tickets aren’t already sold? If so, is your theory that it’s about the NCAA wanting to reward scalpers?
The schools get ticket packages to sell, and it's less likely they will sell them all if people have to travel several thousand miles away. And just in general, you WILL have more fans there if the game is closer, whether it is secondary or primary ticket sales. So obviously schools prefer that. It also keeps travel costs down, which because it is a championship event the NCAA pays for, so that is a big incentive on the NCAA's side.
 
The committee says they value the conference tournaments. Every year they say it. But the results don't seem to move the needle much, especially the Sunday games, but also the Saturday games at times.
I think it's the pressure of time for the Sunday games. If the teams in the conference tournament finals would have made it in as an at large then the result of the conference game probably doesn't their seeding or tournament location all that much. But if you have some teams that were not close to being at large teams win their conference tournaments-that's probably when the committee says "or f.. uu...cc...k" we got some adjustments to make.
 
Last Saturday (before the weekend games) here were the Top 10:

1. Michigan
2. Duke
3. Arizona
4. Iowa St.
5. UConn
6. Houston
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. Kansas

Based on results since then until this morning, I would say:

1. Duke (beat Michigan on a neutral court)
2. Michigan (could be Arizona here)
3. Arizona (could be Michigan)
4. UConn (Two Q1 wins since Sat)
5. Iowa St. (lost on the road to borderline Top 25 BYU)
6. Illinois (lost in OT)
7. Purdue (lost to Michigan St)
8. Florida (2nd hottest team in the country)
9. Houston (lost 2x)
10. Nebraska

I think is a 3-4 team race between UConn, Iowa St and Illinois. I wouldn't completely rule Houston out only because they have a favorable schedule and then the Big 12 tournament, but the lack of big wins means they need to win out and get a lot of help along the way.
That’s based on a poll….which means nothing. Focus on WAB.
 
You are correct that you don't get any WAB for beating a D2 team, but the subsequent logic is a bit off. The 25 wins for an expected bubble team is coming from their 28-0 record and them having a WAB of 3 (so an average bubble team would be expected to be 25-3). So if you then exclude those 3 D2 games you'd also have to adjust the expected wins down as well. So they'd be 25-0 and a bubble team would be 22-3
Thank you for clarifying. Makes a lot more sense thinking about it as their WAB is 3 instead of looking at it from a standpoint of expected wins against their schedule. I think had it been phrased that way in the post I read I may not have even posed the question (not saying it wasn't phrased that way somewhere earlier in the thread, but the specific post I was responding to.)

I like WAB overall, but every metric has flaws and I guess this specific example kind of exposes one of the flaws with WAB. They've played only 1 game against Q2, so it's saying a team on the cut line with this schedule would be expected to be 1-0 against Q2 with 3 losses against Q3, or 0-1 against Q2 with 2 losses against Q3. Whereas we all know a team with 0-1 Q2 wins and multiple losses in Q3 would never be seriously considered for an at large. The cumulative aspect of stacking together those Q3 and Q4 wins seems to inflate their WAB a bit.
 
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These guys are goofballs. Where did you find this? We can't get you to read basic articles, but you find this stuff. Bizarre. Anyway...

Again, I think Illinois would need to win out for this even to be a discussion.

If you are Dan Hurley, what is the point of scheduling tough matchups in November/December, on NEUTRAL courts, if the results aren't going to matter? UConn beating Illinois by 13 points should be a factor in this.
Obvious this is from last Saturday
 
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Florida cannot mathematically catch up in WAB which is the only team I consider a legit threat to supplant UConn as the final 1 seed
I think Uconn would have to lose at Marquette and early in the BET and Florida run it to jump us at this point. I think Uconn is 90% inked into the 1 after today. Crazy stuff would have to happen to lose it. Nice day.
 
Lunardi gives Houston back home court in the 3 hole? Isn’t that like the 12 position?

Ouch.
If UConn is 1 in the South will get toughest 2 seed in theory. So if Houston is the 3 in South they would have to face the toughest 2 before playing UConn (if make Elite 8). The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 will be tough games for everyone this year regardless...hope we get there, should be fun.
 
Florida cannot mathematically catch up in WAB which is the only team I consider a legit threat to supplant UConn as the final 1 seed
Including the conference tournaments they definitely can. You lose WAB for losses don't forget. We could finish down at 7.5 or so and they can add 1.4 in the regular season and like 2.0 in the tournament. So would go from 6.6 to 10 or so. Well above us.

#1 seed selection is based on a mix of predictive and resume metrics. If they even get close in WAB/resumes and have far superior predictive metrics, they could still get it. Though of course the head to head tiebreaker may reign supreme if it's close.

But #1 seed in the South seems preettty likely at this point barring UConn losing the next 2.
 
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If UConn is 1 in the South will get toughest 2 seed in theory. So if Houston is the 3 in South they would have to face the toughest 2 before playing UConn (if make Elite 8). The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 will be tough games for everyone this year regardless...hope we get there, should be fun.
It never works that way
 
With all the movement (losses from ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue) this past week, UF could easily be the top 2 seed but are a ways from UConn still.
 
With all the movement (losses from ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue) this past week, UF could easily be the top 2 seed but are a ways from UConn still.
UConn would have to lose next 2 and Florida win out. They may move to the #5, which could put them in our bracket - no ideal. Easily the two seed I'd least like to see.

Gonna be a fight now for the 2 lines between Florida, ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue.
 
UConn would have to lose next 2 and Florida win out. They may move to the #5, which could put them in our bracket - no ideal. Easily the two seed I'd least like to see.

Gonna be a fight now for the 2 lines between Florida, ISU, Houston, Illinois and Purdue.

Florida/Illinois would be tied for my least wanted to play because UConn already played them. Illinois has a higher ceiling and is a crap shoot in many ways with their ability to shoot but Florida the higher floor. Houston/ISU would be like playing SJU/SH again in many ways but at a higher level. Purdue would be ideal IMO but I would bet they are in Dukes region if they are a two seed.
 
Including the conference tournaments they definitely can. You lose WAB for losses don't forget. We could finish down at 7.5 or so and they can add 1.4 in the regular season and like 2.0 in the tournament. So would go from 6.6 to 10 or so. Well above us.

#1 seed selection is based on a mix of predictive and resume metrics. If they even get close in WAB/resumes and have far superior predictive metrics, they could still get it. Though of course the head to head tiebreaker may reign supreme if it's close.

But #1 seed in the South seems preettty likely at this point barring UConn losing the next 2.
The conference tourneys don’t factor into the bracket these days since the committee is lazy
 
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I think at this point, a win @Marquette next week wraps up the 1. I would feel a little more comfortable winning our 1st BET game just to be safe, but I think a win next week puts us almost in lock category.
 
I think at this point, a win @Marquette next week wraps up the 1. I would feel a little more comfortable winning our 1st BET game just to be safe, but I think a win next week puts us almost in lock category.
Iowa State losing today gives us the inside track, and I think the only thing that would jeopardize it is then running the table and us losing to anyone other than Nova or St. John's.
 
We should all be rooting for Arizona Monday night. If they beat Iowa St at home, Iowa St. will have 6 losses.
I think ISU did themselves in today - doubt winning at AZ gives them any edge to coming back as a 1 seed at this point. TT handled them. They'd have to beat AZ and win multiple big games in the B12 tourney - and they're just honestly not that good.
 
Modern day metrics may be worse than ever. Once again showing how they're a self fulfilling prophecy

We beat IL, they have 7 losses, they play in the almighty B10 that hasn't won a tittle since 2000. "The body of work y'know," and Purdue couldn't even compete in 2024. They're still ahead of us

We beat FL, they have 6 losses, they play in the almighty SEC. Who is good in the SEC again? They all lose a lot. Walter Clayton Jr is not walking through the door. Their 2025 title might be the most fortuitous of all time. Along with VA in 2019. They're ahead of us

Houston just lost three straight, including to a team we beat in their house, they're still ahead of us

Purdue and ISU are ahead of us too, please

WINNING matters people, no matter what that math tries to tell you
 
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