Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[businesslawyer]

Oh, you do care. Not so much for the seeding, more the, should we say, righteousness?

You’re allowed to care. Nothing wrong with that. But don’t be surprised if once the Committee is weighing in most people view it as useless as some unknown blogger’s opinion.

The only righteousness I’m looking for is revenge against the Johnnies in 48 hours.

 

[REB1094]

UConn is 10 in NET (3 seed), 11 in Kenpom (3 seed), 9 in Torvik (3 seed), 6 in the AP poll (2 seed), but 4 in WAB (1 seed). Apparently WAB matters the most

I don’t know what’s going to happen. I give up trying to guess. Too many computers!

 

[BFieldHusky]

Seems like a 3 team race for the 1 seed between UConn, Iowa St. and Houston. Outside shot for Purdue.

 

[RuffRuff]

UConn is 10 in NET (3 seed), 11 in Kenpom (3 seed), 9 in Torvik (3 seed), 6 in the AP poll (2 seed), but 4 in WAB (1 seed). Apparently WAB matters the most

I don’t know what’s going to happen. I give up trying to guess. Too many computers!

this one matters a lot. We have a number of very good wins. When its all said and done, may have wins on neutral vs 2 two seeds and one 3 seed on the road.

 

[cwh20]

I've been holding this grudge for a long time, but in 1998 we were 5 or 6 on the s-curve (I'm not sure they released it back then) and they gave us the 2 seed with UNC, who was the No. 1 overall seed. The reason they gave was that UConn was in the east so should be in the east bracket -- geography. And the game was played in, naturally, North Carolina.

I should probably get over this one.

Nope. I’m not over it. Here was the scenario.

UNC was the overall #1 seed without question. The next four could really be put in any order depending on how you wanted to weight the criteria. And then there was a gap between that group of four and the next tier of teams. UConn was given a two seed. No problem with that UNLESS UConn as the clear best 2 seed has to play UNC as the best 1 seed. And that’s what the committee did. They screwed UConn and the insult to injury was having the regional final in NC.

When the committee head came on to talk about the brackets right after the reveal the FIRST thing he started with was that they were “happy they could “reward” UConn” by leaving them in the East. Are you kidding?!? That was no reward. He was just trying to get ahead of any criticism in my opinion.

And that year some first and second round games were in Hartford. UNC was at the Civic Center and taken into OT by UNC Charlotte in the 1/8 game. The crowd was big 49er (I think their star was Diego Guavera or something close to that and he was terrific) fans that day but the Jameson/Vince Carter UNC team won.

 

[businesslawyer]

Nope. I’m not over it. Here was the scenario.

UNC was the overall #1 seed without question. The next four could really be put in any order depending on how you wanted to weight the criteria. And then there was a gap between that group of four and the next tier of teams. UConn was given a two seed. No problem with that UNLESS UConn as the clear best 2 seed has to play UNC as the best 1 seed. And that’s what the committee did. They screwed UConn and the insult to injury was having the regional final in NC.

When the committee head came on to talk about the brackets right after the reveal the FIRST thing he started with was that they were “happy they could “reward” UConn” by leaving them in the East. Are you kidding?!? That was no reward. He was just trying to get ahead of any criticism in my opinion.

And that year some first and second round games were in Hartford. UNC was at the Civic Center and taken into OT by UNC Charlotte in the 1/8 game. The crowd was big 49er (I think their star was Diego Guavera or something close to that and he was terrific) fans that day but the Jameson/Vince Carter UNC team won.

That was over 25 years ago. I’m not justifying what happened, but back then the Committee paid much more attention to geography and lessnto the S curve than they do over a generation later.

 

[FreeDogs]

\

Correct. I find that BECG to be so late in the process, its unlikely to change much. It always feels like they have most of it penciled in by then.

The significant games to be played:

StJ/UConn - Wed
Houston/Kansas - Tonight
Iowa St/AZ - next week
UM/Illinois - this weekend

I'd say if we lost to StJ and any one of Houston/ISU/Illinois wins these games, while also generally winning out, they could be in line to snatch that last 1. Houston loses tonight, I think you can officially put a line through them as a 1 seed given the lack of quality high level wins.

Concur my friend. Houston losing tonight and a win of Wednesday gets us a #1 seed.

I mean, we lost to a 13-13 Creighton team AT HOME and only slipped one spot in the rankings. The #1 seed is ours for the taking.

 

[FreeDogs]

@Scrutineer , did Dan Hurley prove he is worth the money yesterday?

 

[Fan1978]

Concur my friend. Houston losing tonight and a win of Wednesday gets us a #1 seed.

I mean, we lost to a 13-13 Creighton team AT HOME and only slipped one spot in the rankings. The #1 seed is ours for the taking.

If uconn wins to final of big east tournament they are a 1 seed. Can lose in finals

 

[auror]

If uconn wins to final of big east tournament they are a 1 seed. Can lose in finals

There are two caveats to this:

If Illinois beats Michigan at home or Iowa State beats Arizona on the road.

If either of those 2 things happen, and then those teams win their conference tournaments, I think it would be hard to deny them.

 

[KingAG]

There are two caveats to this:

If Illinois beats Michigan at home or Iowa State beats Arizona on the road.

If either of those 2 things happen, and then those teams win their conference tournaments, I think it would be hard to deny them.

If we win out I would think our resume is still better. The committee says they don’t change much based on Conference Tournament Results. I think the 1 seeds for the most part will be determined before conference tourney champs are crowned

 

[RuffRuff]

There are two caveats to this:

If Illinois beats Michigan at home or Iowa State beats Arizona on the road.

If either of those 2 things happen, and then those teams win their conference tournaments, I think it would be hard to deny them.

I'd fully agree. If UConn, ISU and Illinois win out, I think the order of finish for the 1 seed would be:

ISU (AZ on road win, and then likely 2-3 wins against other top 10-15 teams - AZ/Houston/Kansas)
Illinois (would likely mean two wins against Michigan, another win against either Purdue or MSU, likely another tourney team win)
Illinois is currently 4 in the NET & KP
UConn (St John's two wins???)

I just don't think there is a very good chance those teams do.

 

[BFieldHusky]

If we win out I would think our resume is still better. The committee says they don’t change much based on Conference Tournament Results. I think the 1 seeds for the most part will be determined before conference tourney champs are crowned

I agree @KingAG. I think @auror point was if Illinois and/or Iowa St win those games, and then go onto win the Big 10 or Big 12 tournament, they may pass UConn IF UConn loses another game along the way.

If UConn wins out, there is no doubt (based on where the committee had things last Saturday) we are the last 1 seed.

For wiggle room purposes, root for Michigan tonight, and Arizona on Monday to win.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I'd fully agree. If UConn, ISU and Illinois win out, I think the order of finish for the 1 seed would be:

ISU (AZ on road win, and then likely 2-3 wins against other top 10 teams - AZ/Houston)
Illinois (would likely mean two wins against Michigan, another win against either Purdue or MSU, likely another tourney team win)
UConn (St John's two wins???)

I just don't think there is a very good chance those teams do.

Maybe you could make a claim for Iowa St in that scenario. I don't see Illinois passing us unless we lost 1, and they win out. Hard for me to see the committee having Illinois jump us with 2x as many losses as us, and then on top of that, we beat them handily on a neutral court.

The committee showed head to head matters when they seeded Iowa St ahead of Houston 6 days ago.

 

[RuffRuff]

Maybe you could make a claim for Iowa St in that scenario. I don't see Illinois passing us unless we lost 1, and they win out. Hard for me to see the committee having Illinois jump us with 2x as many losses as us, and then on top of that, we beat them handily on a neutral court.

The committee showed head to head matters when they seeded Iowa St ahead of Houston 6 days ago.

Could be right - I'm less convinced with Illinois for that reason, but they would be stacking some serious wins if they did run it along with very favorable metrics. If ISU beats AZ (which I doubt), they likely have a better chance.

 

[aburks41]

If we beat SHU and Marquette, I think we have the 1 seed locked up. The only thing that would give me pause is if we lost on Thursday in the BET, but even if we lost in the semi's or finals, I don't think it changes much

 

[RuffRuff]

If we beat SHU and Marquette, I think we have the 1 seed locked up. The only thing that would give me pause is if we lost on Thursday in the BET, but even if we lost in the semi's or finals, I don't think it changes much

If ISU beats the number 2 team on the road, there will be plenty of push to them being the 1. I just don't think they will.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Last Saturday (before the weekend games) here were the Top 10:

1. Michigan
2. Duke
3. Arizona
4. Iowa St.
5. UConn
6. Houston
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. Kansas

Based on results since then until this morning, I would say:

1. Duke (beat Michigan on a neutral court)
2. Michigan (could be Arizona here)
3. Arizona (could be Michigan)
4. UConn (Two Q1 wins since Sat)
5. Iowa St. (lost on the road to borderline Top 25 BYU)
6. Illinois (lost in OT)
7. Purdue (lost to Michigan St)
8. Florida (2nd hottest team in the country)
9. Houston (lost 2x)
10. Nebraska

I think is a 3-4 team race between UConn, Iowa St and Illinois. I wouldn't completely rule Houston out only because they have a favorable schedule and then the Big 12 tournament, but the lack of big wins means they need to win out and get a lot of help along the way.

 

[BFieldHusky]

If we beat SHU and Marquette, I think we have the 1 seed locked up. The only thing that would give me pause is if we lost on Thursday in the BET, but even if we lost in the semi's or finals, I don't think it changes much

I think we need to get to Friday night to feel comfortable. @KingAG made a great point that we have learned over the recent years. The committee doesn't pay attention to the conference tournaments as much as we think. But losing to a .500 Big East team in the quarterfinals would not be good.

Again, really need Michigan to beat Illinois tonight. But more importantly, need Arizona to beat Iowa St. at home on Monday.

 

[JungleLobo]

I agree @KingAG. I think @auror point was if Illinois and/or Iowa St win those games, and then go onto win the Big 10 or Big 12 tournament, they may pass UConn IF UConn loses another game along the way.

If UConn wins out, there is no doubt (based on where the committee had things last Saturday) we are the last 1 seed.

For wiggle room purposes, root for Michigan tonight, and Arizona on Monday to win.

I thought the committee in recent years have said they are just tweaking based on conference tournaments, as any team can go cold on a night or go on a 72 hour heater

 

[JungleLobo]

If we beat SHU and Marquette, I think we have the 1 seed locked up. The only thing that would give me pause is if we lost on Thursday in the BET, but even if we lost in the semi's or finals, I don't think it changes much

Draw Georgetown and it’s a possibility. A 2 point and a 4 point loss show they are matching up with UConn just fine, no matter the venue.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Draw Georgetown and it’s a possibility. A 2 point and a 4 point loss show they are matching up with UConn just fine, no matter the venue.

Georgetown just lost their best player for the season. A guy who put up 24 at Gampel. I'd be fine with playing them again.

 

[auror]

The committee says they value the conference tournaments. Every year they say it. But the results don't seem to move the needle much, especially the Sunday games, but also the Saturday games at times.

 

[Marat]

The committee says they value the conference tournaments. Every year they say it. But the results don't seem to move the needle much, especially the Sunday games, but also the Saturday games at times.

From what I understand, they make their decisions before the Saturday evening championship games., which to me does not make much sense.

 

[RuffRuff]

From what I understand, they make their decisions before the Saturday evening championship games., which to me does not make much sense.

I think this is somewhat true, and they lay out the hypotheticals in advance.

UM by 2.5.

 

[aburks41]

Draw Georgetown and it’s a possibility. A 2 point and a 4 point loss show they are matching up with UConn just fine, no matter the venue.

KJ Lewis is out for the year. TBH the only team I don't want to face on Thursday is Providence lol. Their offense is dangerous

 

[RuffRuff]

 

[Lafayette]

if we take care of Seton Hall we jump Houston and Iowa St in the polls. Iowa st still has a game at Arizona i think so in basic terms we can get to 30 wins we get a 1 seed.

 

[Fan1978]

There are two caveats to this:

If Illinois beats Michigan at home or Iowa State beats Arizona on the road.

If either of those 2 things happen, and then those teams win their conference tournaments, I think it would be hard to deny them.

Agreed but unlikely

 

[Marat]

If we can get the last #1 seed, we would face the best #2 seed. The region would be the South (in Houston), so should we care if that #2 is in fact the Houston Cougars ? I don't know how it will play out, if Houston or Iowa St or FL or Illinois becomes the best #2 seed, but just personally would not want to be with a major crowd disadvantage.

Or is this thinking too many steps ahead ....