CTBasketball
Former Owner of the Pizza Thread
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Gun to my head if I had to pick a metric nerd to align with, give me the bullet.
Race for 1 Seed (2/5)
- Thread starter BFieldHusky
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Inyatkin
Stairway to Seven
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Daily post limits would do wonders around here
FfldCntyFan
Texas: Property of UConn Men's Basketball program
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I get that many here are placing quite a bit of importance on what seed we end up with for the tournament, but I believe we have other concerns, which will carry quite a bit of weight towards where we will end up once this season is over while our seeding will play a very small role.
We took a nice step forward yesterday, but we need to continue doing so, at increasing levels if this season is going to end as we want it to. If we do this, we can make a deep run as either a one or two seed, regardless of which region we end up in. If we don't, we can be a one seed anywhere and still be ripe to get picked off in the sweet sixteen or earlier.
We won't drop to so low of a seed that the path would be too demanding if we can fix what needs to be fixed. If we can't fix what needs to be fixed, no seeding would get us where we want to end up.
We took a nice step forward yesterday, but we need to continue doing so, at increasing levels if this season is going to end as we want it to. If we do this, we can make a deep run as either a one or two seed, regardless of which region we end up in. If we don't, we can be a one seed anywhere and still be ripe to get picked off in the sweet sixteen or earlier.
We won't drop to so low of a seed that the path would be too demanding if we can fix what needs to be fixed. If we can't fix what needs to be fixed, no seeding would get us where we want to end up.
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Based on yesterday's bracket reveal and then the results of yesterday, this is my reasonable guess where things stand purely from a numbers perspective:
1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. UConn
5. Iowa St.
6. Houston
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. Nebraska
11. Gonzaga
12. Kansas
13. Texas Tech
14. Michigan St
15. Virginia
16. Alabama
1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. UConn
5. Iowa St.
6. Houston
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. Nebraska
11. Gonzaga
12. Kansas
13. Texas Tech
14. Michigan St
15. Virginia
16. Alabama
I think one of the points he may have been making (and if not it's a point I will make) is that I don't believe Iowa State was listed as a 1 before the reveal on Saturday, which means the site was underrating their profile, and they are unlikely to actually be the last 2 seed as listed on the site.
no he doesn't.
It's a predictive rating in contrast to the committee, which rewards resumes with things like quad wins, and WAB.
While the committee has access to KP and Torvik, they have traditionally relied far more heavily on the quality of a teams wins than the slew of predictive metrics.
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I tend to like the metric of top 3 wins. It tells you what a team’s ceiling is, with some element of recency weighted.
Let’s see how that impacts Wisconsin this year. Wins @UM, @Illinois and MSU. I bet it bumps them a couple likes above the metrics.
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One fewer Q1 win, because we won a Q1 game yesterday in addition to the 2 games shifting down to Q2
Q1A matters as much or more than Q1 when talking about the top couple seedlines
Except the committee chair said they were hit by the unexpected loss by UConn and working quick, they based their 1 seed on a simple head to head result with Houston that just conveniently happened. In which case they wouldn't have needed to be seeded a 1 by torvik beforehand.
That does set a precedent I guess which would work in our favor if we collide with Illinois
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Exactly
We need to turn that 2nd half into 2 straight halves against Johnnie’s.
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Mr. Wonderful
Whistleblower
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Yes please.
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Right now our 3 best wins are Illinois, Florida, and Kansas, with the first 2 on a neutral court, and the 3rd at Kansas.
Iowa St's 3 best wins are at Purdue, Kansas at home (split with them) and Houston at home. I'd give a UConn a slight edge but it's very close.
Houston's 3 best wins are Arkansas (neutral), Texas Tech (split with them) and at BYU. Advantage UConn.
You can say everything is predictive unless you are in the room Captain Obvious.
Otherwise, it is a model also based on resumes that rewards what you just said! Both as of right now, and another that he says is predictive.
When they have a tight margin and need to make a close decision, then they go to something like best wins, or head to head, both of which they mentioned yesterday. Or, that all gets thrown out the window based on conference configurations and/or locations.
Nah, that's not what happened lol. They didn't say they were working quick. They had 2 full days until the reveal lol.
You can watch the interview, at no point does he say they were working quick. He did mention head to head as one of the factors, but he makes it clear to distinguish that it was only one of the factors.
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Quad wins are explicitly not predictive.
No. Stop fabricating. He clearly said it was that head to head result. Obviously the other factors are what put them in the potential position in the first place.
He doesn't have to say they were working quick stop reaching. He said they had to go back and scrub and landed on the head to head result. Very clearly. Do you think they stayed locked in a room for 2 full days for a reveal?
You are wrong and take the L which you are never able to do.
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BGesus4
Running everywhere
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Wait are you saying you don’t think they discussed how they would pick between two teams until two days ago???
I knew we didn’t know how to process any bad news but now good news too?
Are you saying they discussed if UConn lost to Creighton before it happened? I want you to be clear on this.
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We also beat BYU at full strength and Iowa St lost to them.
BGesus4
Running everywhere
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Nope. Nobody is saying that. Their job is to compare teams and rank them. They are comparing resumes as of Saturday and they’ve had the methods they were going to use to do that for a long time. They’re not freaking out over the last game played, as some may be susceptible to.
You were the one who said they were working quick lol. I'm not fabricating anything, but you made up the working quick part.
My point is they were not working quick. They evaluated the entire portfolios and put Iowa State ahead of Houston... and UConn, the latter of which was not due to head to head. Head to head likely came into play with Houston, but both the chair with Norlander and GIll in his on air interview mentioned Iowa State having better wins than Houston as well.
Torvik's model did not have Iowa State ahead then or now. So when we examine what Torvik has now for Iowa State, we need to keep in mind that the committee was valuing Iowa State's resume more highly than the model evaluates their metrics as a sum of the parts.
I do think the committee would have UConn clearly above Iowa State now, though.
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UConn has ISU. They do have AZ on the road left and are not winning. TT at home. This all rides on StJ. We win out we’ll have the 1.
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You were hanging your hat on an expression, and what would be the definition of quickly in this case anyway?. Were they supposed to wait?
I still don't understand your insistence that his tourneycast with Iowa St was off. They were a solid 2 seed right there with Houston. UConn loses, Iowa St had just beaten Houston, they move up. What you are saying is the Torvik model should have forecast Creighton beating UConn.
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This one from CBS Sports also.
Bracketology: Duke surges to No. 1 overall seed in NCAA Tournament projection, UConn returns to top line
The No. 1 seed picture changed following a big Saturday of college basketball action
www.cbssports.com
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You happy I read it? This looks right, with what I would say UConn at 55/45 over ISU for the last seed. I'm sure if they could somehow pull off winning at Zona, they'd jump us even if we beat StJ. They've stunk on the road, so I doubt it happens.
My feelings on who are the best teams, least appetizing matchups on the two line:
1) Illinois - they've lost some OT games recently, but I still think the most talented team and toughest matchup. Wagler could give Duke problems. I know Duke slaughtered them last year, but they have size and guards.
2) Houston - team is missing something defensively (doesn't turn the opponent over anymore), but really talented 1-5
3) Iowa St - general lack of talent
4) Purdue - no athleticism
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Gotta beat St. John’s twice to win out. St. John’s is not a #17 team now. They are playing like they were ranked in pre season.
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Nice job. Looks good. I just don't understand how you pontificate about everything without reading up on the things we're discussing. Don't take this the wrong way, but I've come to the conclusion that you have ADHD. You exhibit many of the traits on here. That would explain why you're the way you are. So I will give you a pass in the future. You can get drugs for the condition if you don't have a prescription already.
bendm
Utterly Impossible
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Did you create this? That’s what I was hoping for but @auror said ISU would be in the Midwest and Houston would be south based on geographic preference among teams on the same seed line. Not sure if you bothered to read that back and forth…
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