Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 10 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

king conn said:
Except the committee chair said they were hit by the unexpected loss by UConn and working quick, they based their 1 seed on a simple head to head result with Houston that just conveniently happened. In which case they wouldn't have needed to be seeded a 1 by torvik beforehand.

That does set a precedent I guess which would work in our favor if we collide with Illinois
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Nah, that's not what happened lol. They didn't say they were working quick. They had 2 full days until the reveal lol.

You can watch the interview, at no point does he say they were working quick. He did mention head to head as one of the factors, but he makes it clear to distinguish that it was only one of the factors.
 
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auror said:
Nah, that's not what happened lol. They didn't say they were working quick. They had 2 full days until the reveal lol.

You can watch the interview, at no point does he say they were working quick. He did mention head to head as one of the factors, but he makes it clear to distinguish that it was only one of the factors.
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No. Stop fabricating. He clearly said it was that head to head result. Obviously the other factors are what put them in the potential position in the first place.

He doesn't have to say they were working quick stop reaching. He said they had to go back and scrub and landed on the head to head result. Very clearly. Do you think they stayed locked in a room for 2 full days for a reveal?

You are wrong and take the L which you are never able to do.
 
king conn said:
No. Stop fabricating. He clearly said it was that head to head result. Obviously the other factors are what put them in the potential position in the first place.

He doesn't have to say they were working quick stop reaching. He said they had to go back and scrub and landed on the head to head result. Very clearly. Do you think they stayed locked in a room for 2 full days for a reveal?

You are wrong and take the L which you are never able to do.
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Wait are you saying you don’t think they discussed how they would pick between two teams until two days ago???

I knew we didn’t know how to process any bad news but now good news too?
 
BGesus4 said:
Wait are you saying you don’t think they discussed how they would pick between two teams until two days ago???

I knew we didn’t know how to process any bad news but now good news too?
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Are you saying they discussed if UConn lost to Creighton before it happened? I want you to be clear on this.
 
BFieldHusky said:
Right now our 3 best wins are Illinois, Florida, and Kansas, with the first 2 on a neutral court, and the 3rd at Kansas.

Iowa St's 3 best wins are at Purdue, Kansas at home (split with them) and Houston at home. I'd give a UConn a slight edge but it's very close.

Houston's 3 best wins are Arkansas (neutral), Texas Tech (split with them) and at BYU. Advantage UConn.
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We also beat BYU at full strength and Iowa St lost to them.
 
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king conn said:
Are you saying they discussed if UConn lost to Creighton before it happened? I want you to be clear on this.
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Nope. Nobody is saying that. Their job is to compare teams and rank them. They are comparing resumes as of Saturday and they’ve had the methods they were going to use to do that for a long time. They’re not freaking out over the last game played, as some may be susceptible to.
 
king conn said:
No. Stop fabricating. He clearly said it was that head to head result. Obviously the other factors are what put them in the potential position in the first place.

He doesn't have to say they were working quick stop reaching. He said they had to go back and scrub and landed on the head to head result. Very clearly. Do you think they stayed locked in a room for 2 full days for a reveal?
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You were the one who said they were working quick lol. I'm not fabricating anything, but you made up the working quick part.
king conn said:
Except the committee chair said they were hit by the unexpected loss by UConn and working quick, they based their 1 seed on a simple head to head result with Houston that just conveniently happened.
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My point is they were not working quick. They evaluated the entire portfolios and put Iowa State ahead of Houston... and UConn, the latter of which was not due to head to head. Head to head likely came into play with Houston, but both the chair with Norlander and GIll in his on air interview mentioned Iowa State having better wins than Houston as well.

Torvik's model did not have Iowa State ahead then or now. So when we examine what Torvik has now for Iowa State, we need to keep in mind that the committee was valuing Iowa State's resume more highly than the model evaluates their metrics as a sum of the parts.

I do think the committee would have UConn clearly above Iowa State now, though.
 
auror said:
You were the one who said they were working quick lol. I'm not fabricating anything, but you made up the working quick part.

My point is they were not working quick. They evaluated the entire portfolios and put Iowa State ahead of Houston... and UConn, the latter of which was not due to head to head. Head to head likely came into play with Houston, but both the chair with Norlander and GIll in his on air interview mentioned Iowa State having better wins than Houston as well.

Torvik's model did not have Iowa State ahead then or now. So when we examine what Torvik has now for Iowa State, we need to keep in mind that the committee was valuing Iowa State's resume more highly than the model evaluates their metrics as a sum of the parts.

I do think the committee would have UConn clearly above Iowa State now, though.
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UConn has ISU. They do have AZ on the road left and are not winning. TT at home. This all rides on StJ. We win out we’ll have the 1.
 
auror said:
You were the one who said they were working quick lol. I'm not fabricating anything, but you made up the working quick part.

My point is they were not working quick. They evaluated the entire portfolios and put Iowa State ahead of Houston... and UConn, the latter of which was not due to head to head. Head to head likely came into play with Houston, but both the chair with Norlander and GIll in his on air interview mentioned Iowa State having better wins than Houston as well.

Torvik's model did not have Iowa State ahead then or now. So when we examine what Torvik has now for Iowa State, we need to keep in mind that the committee was valuing Iowa State's resume more highly than the model evaluates their metrics as a sum of the parts.

I do think the committee would have UConn clearly above Iowa State now, though.
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You were hanging your hat on an expression, and what would be the definition of quickly in this case anyway?. Were they supposed to wait?

I still don't understand your insistence that his tourneycast with Iowa St was off. They were a solid 2 seed right there with Houston. UConn loses, Iowa St had just beaten Houston, they move up. What you are saying is the Torvik model should have forecast Creighton beating UConn.
 
Screenshot 2026-02-22 at 2.34.09 PM.png

You happy I read it? This looks right, with what I would say UConn at 55/45 over ISU for the last seed. I'm sure if they could somehow pull off winning at Zona, they'd jump us even if we beat StJ. They've stunk on the road, so I doubt it happens.

My feelings on who are the best teams, least appetizing matchups on the two line:

1) Illinois - they've lost some OT games recently, but I still think the most talented team and toughest matchup. Wagler could give Duke problems. I know Duke slaughtered them last year, but they have size and guards.
2) Houston - team is missing something defensively (doesn't turn the opponent over anymore), but really talented 1-5
3) Iowa St - general lack of talent
4) Purdue - no athleticism
 
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RuffRuff said:
UConn has ISU. They do have AZ on the road left and are not winning. TT at home. This all rides on StJ. We win out we’ll have the 1.
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Gotta beat St. John’s twice to win out. St. John’s is not a #17 team now. They are playing like they were ranked in pre season.
 
RuffRuff said:
View attachment 117317
You happy I read it? This looks right, with what I would say UConn at 55/45 over ISU for the last seed. I'm sure if they could somehow pull off winning at Zona, they'd jump us even if we beat StJ. They've stunk on the road, so I doubt it happens.

My feelings on who are the best teams, least appetizing matchups on the two line:

1) Illinois - they've lost some OT games recently, but I still think the most talented team and toughest matchup. Wagler could give Duke problems. I know Duke slaughtered them last year, but they have size and guards.
2) Houston - team is missing something defensively (doesn't turn the opponent over anymore), but really talented 1-5
3) Iowa St - general lack of talent
4) Purdue - no athleticism
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Nice job. Looks good. I just don't understand how you pontificate about everything without reading up on the things we're discussing. Don't take this the wrong way, but I've come to the conclusion that you have ADHD. You exhibit many of the traits on here. That would explain why you're the way you are. So I will give you a pass in the future. You can get drugs for the condition if you don't have a prescription already.
 
RuffRuff said:
View attachment 117317
You happy I read it? This looks right, with what I would say UConn at 55/45 over ISU for the last seed. I'm sure if they could somehow pull off winning at Zona, they'd jump us even if we beat StJ. They've stunk on the road, so I doubt it happens.

My feelings on who are the best teams, least appetizing matchups on the two line:

1) Illinois - they've lost some OT games recently, but I still think the most talented team and toughest matchup. Wagler could give Duke problems. I know Duke slaughtered them last year, but they have size and guards.
2) Houston - team is missing something defensively (doesn't turn the opponent over anymore), but really talented 1-5
3) Iowa St - general lack of talent
4) Purdue - no athleticism
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Did you create this? That’s what I was hoping for but @auror said ISU would be in the Midwest and Houston would be south based on geographic preference among teams on the same seed line. Not sure if you bothered to read that back and forth…
 
jibsey said:
Gotta beat St. John’s twice to win out. St. John’s is not a #17 team now. They are playing like they were ranked in pre season.
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Beat st johns Wednesday and make final iit to big east tournament final might be enough to get the last one seed. Big 12 and big 10 tough path and more loses to come. Florida likeky to move to 2 the 2 line as they dominate the sec.
 
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From the NCAA website they say these are the metrics they use to evaluate teams:
As of Friday I think:
BPI 11
Kenpom 13
KPI 6
NET 10
SOR 4
Torvik 9
WAB 4

As of today:
BPI 11
Kenpom 11 (O 23/D 12)
KPI 4
NET 10
SOR 4
Torvik 9
WAB 4
 
For reference here is STJ.
BPI 15
Kenpom 22 (O 45/D 15)
KPI 16
NET 23
SOR 19
Torvik 19
WAB 21
 
jibsey said:
Gotta beat St. John’s twice to win out. St. John’s is not a #17 team now. They are playing like they were ranked in pre season.
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They'll have the seeds largely configured before Saturday night at the BET.

If UConn makes it to that Saturday night without losing, they'll be "pencilled" into the first four.

Iowa St or Houston would need to win the B12 tourney, which will be quite a task since Arizona, BYU and Kansas will have their say (not to mention the B12 teams who will be desperate to win the tourney), and UConn would need to lose to St. John's.
 
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I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
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ISU lost at BYU
AZ beat Houston in Houston
UCLA beat Illinois (not that Illinois really had a shot)

If either ISU or Houston won, they'd have be really well positioned to hold onto the 1 with a quality win.
 
CardiacAndre7 said:
I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
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After the Creighton loss and before the Nova win the actual committee said we were #5 on the S-curve, so we were right on the fringe and the team directly in front of us lost yesterday along with a good win for us
 
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CardiacAndre7 said:
I guess I must be confused as to how all this works. Don’t take this as disrespect for our team, but I assumed after the Creighton loss we were pretty far out from a 1 seed. Did the Nova win really put us firmly back in the mix just like that, or is it more that the rest of those in that conversation have lost as well?
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If you were confused, it was because you read the Boneyard too much. The loss moved us back to being the #5 team in the country in the Committee’s view. There is no interpretation of the English language that makes that “pretty far out” from a one seed with 2.5 weeks left in the regular season and then the conference tournaments. I think we need more than one loss for the 1 through 3 teams for us to catch any of them. But we could easily drop in and out of the 4 slot with Houston and ISU.
 
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