Prediction Time

[chrissaran]

UConn 75-60.

 

[Kevin G]

Duke gave SC trouble in Cameron. UCONN blasted Duke at home. Therefore, UCONN crushes SC....80-52!

But, I'll be more realistic. SC's height and athleticism is a bit too much to ignore. I say UCONN 68 USC 60. UCONN pulls away thanks to the amp'd up crowd at Gampel.

 

[cferraro04]

I originally predicted 83 - 74 and I see no reason to veer from that prediction. Here is my original post in case some folks didn't see it.



It is hard to compare So. Carolina to UConn on a player by player basis because Dawn has 10 players playing double digits minutes and Geno has 9 players getting double digit minutes... Let's face it...Dawn has Wilson, Coates and Cuevas coming off the bench and everyone knows that both Coates and Wilson should be starting. South Carolina is a different team with both of them on the floor. However, it is always interesting to look at the game from a potential player by player match-up.

South Carolina

5'9" Jr. (G) - Tiffany Mitchell (27.7 min) - 15.3 points / game
6'5" Fr. (G/F) - A'ja Wilson (21.4 min) - 13.6 points / game
6'4" So. (C) - Alaina Coates (20.5 min) - 11.1 points / game
6'0" Sr. (F) - Aleighsa Welch (24.9 min) - 9.6 points / game
6'4" Sr. (C) - Elem Ibiam (17.6 min) - 7.1 points / game
5'6" Fr. (G) - Bianca Cuevas (14.3 min) - 5.4 points / game
6'0" Jr. (G/F) - Asia Dozier (16.7 min) - 4.5 points / game
5'11" Jr. (G) - Tina Roy (15.6 min) - 4.5 points / game
5'8" Jr. (G) - Khadijah Sessions (21.2 min) - 3.8 points / game
6'4" - F (F) - Jatarie White (10.8 min) - 3/6 points / game

70.8 poins

UConn

6'4" Jr. (F) - Breanna Stewart (27.9 min) - 16.9 points / game
5'11" Sr. (F) - Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (28.1 min) - 14.7 points / game
6'2" So. (F) - Morgan Tuck (25.3 min) - 14.4 points / game
6'0" Fr (G) - Kia Nurse (24.5 min) - 11.9 points / game
5'7" Jr. (G) - Moriah Jefferson (26.6 min) - 11.7 points / game
5'11" Fr. (G) - Gabby Williams (16.4 min) - 8.2 points / game
5'8" So. (G) - Saniya Chong (20.3 min) - 5.8 points / game
6'3" Sr. (C) - Kiah Stokes (20.7 min) - 5.4 points / game
6.0 Fr. (G) - Courtney Ekmark (14.2 min) - 2.2 points / game

90.4 points

We know that both Geno and Dawn will shorten their bench during tight games and that key players will play more minutes so, the keys will be: 1. Which key players on each team steps up and has a good day? 2. Which players will have a bad scoring day? 3. Which players will get into foul trouble and when in the game does that occur?

Dawn's team is big with 4 players 6'4" or bigger. Geno's team at this point in the season is farther along offensively than Dawn's. Both teams have great team defense...UConn is number 2 while South Carolina is number 8. Dawn's team is not that good from the FT line .673...that is the good news, however, the bad news is...they get to the line more (282 - 419) than UConn does (227 - 230). UConn is a better three point shooting team with numerous players who can shoot the three: Stewart, Lewis, Tuck, Nurse, Jefferson, Chong - (163-397 or .411). South Carolina has the three in their arsenal but they have less people who shoot them and they make them less frequently: Mitchell, Roy and Dozier - (99 - 280 or .354).

Match-ups

Tiffany Mitchell vs Kia Nurse - Kia will have her hands full with Tiffany. Tiffany is a versatile guard who can handle, shoot the three, pull up for the mid-range jumper and she can defend. It can be argued that Tiffany is Dawn's best all around player. Tiffany has three years experience at the college level but we have seen that Kia plays beyond her years. I think Kia does a decent job defending Tiffany but at the end of the day I think the ADVANTAGE lies with Tiffany.

Khadijah Sessions vs Moriah Jefferson - Moriah is playing other worldly now and Dawn will have to play Moriah by committee...I think we will see Khadijah, Bianca Cuevas and Asia Dozier all taking a crack at containing Moriah. Moriah will be disruptive on the defensive end and I think Moriah will control tempo and keep her turnovers low giving the ADVANTAGE to Moriah

Aleighsa Welch vs Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis - Aleighsa is Dawn's spark-plug and I look for her to be all over KML...draped on her like a wet blanket...as Dawn tries to "cut off the head". How successful will UConn be setting screens to free KML and how successful will KML be in creating her own shot. I say this match-up will be somewhat EVEN unless KML can find a way to get her shots...if she does then ADVANTAGE will shift towards UConn

A'ja Wilson vs Breanna Stewart - this should be an interesting match-up. It could result in either one of them getting into foul trouble. Breanna because of A'ja's size and mobility and A'ja because of Breanna's size and mobility. Breanna has more experience at this level and that should count for something but we have seen Breanna pick up unnecessary fouls. We will need her on the floor and out of foul trouble. Breanna will need to play both inside and outside...bring A'ja outside with her to free up the middle for others to rebound. Given Breanna's experience, her ability to score and the absolute nightmare she presents to opposing teams I think she has a great game. I would say ADVANTAGE goes to Breanna with A'ja being the one who ends up in foul trouble.

Alaina Coates vs Tuck - Now this will be an great match-up. Both players are very mobile in the post. While Tuck has a plethora of post moves and is more polished Coates is an absolute beast with strength, size and soft hands inside. I think we have a similar situation here as we have in the previous match-up either on of these players could end up in foul trouble. We are thinner at the post than So. Carolina is but with Stokes coming in to spell either Stewart or Tuck should they get in foul trouble what we lose in scoring power we make up for in defense. Stokes ability to rebound and block shots may be more on demand in this game and we must remember that Stokes seems to deliver when she is needed. But, back to the Coates vs Tuck match-up...I'm going to call this one SLIGHT ADVANTAGE Tuck.

Bench - South Carolina has a very deep bench and Geno will not go that deep into his bench. With Gabby and Saniya getting limited minutes and the rest of the crew possibly not playing at all...I give the ADVANTAGE to South Carolina.

Coaching - I think Staley is a great coach, I just think Geno and staff are better. The entire WCBB world seems to be in a hurry to crown Staley as Geno's successor as the premier women's basketball coach but I think those notions are premature. I give the coaching ADVANTAGE to UConn.

Intangibles - Home court, crowd, etc... ADVANTAGE UConn

UConn by 9: 83 - 74

 

[scrooster]

Bump ... for the record. Don't change your prediction. Take it like a man once this one is over.

 

[scrooster]

I've made my prediction but ESPN must know something. On ESPN 2 program guide they have SC record 22-1. GO UCONN

Link or it didn't happen.

 

[j66kicker]

Some of you may disagree, but all this mention of the line gives the game more swag.

Stage fright overcomes SC. That and the fear of the snow. I see it as 84-59..Tuck and Stewart give Geno a "take that". And Geno eases off the pedal as respect to DS. If it was Tenn we'd hit 100.

But just cover the 13 point spread ok? My kids need new shoes

Line back up to 14-1/2. One hour til GO TIME!!

 

[watanabe]

Dawn Staley's #1 USC Carolina Gamecocks ... the Lady-Gs 67, Geno's #2 UConn Huskies 63.

SCAR defense is better than y'all realize, plus our long range bombers get hot tonight, force y'all to come out and that leaves the bigs inside open for some easy 2s. We run the court very well and we've got too much depth for y'all to handle all night ... eventually your girls will fatigue.

Now, the key to this game for SCAR is to shoot minimum 75% from the charity strike.

I'd like to see y'all's bigs in foul trouble early - that would be good. We're going to try to pound the ball down low but I fully expect the refs up there to let'em bang on our girls so we're not counting on this thing to be called evenly. We'll see though. I could be wrong.

Not surprised to see y'all favored by double-digits given the history of teams failing up there. You've got a heckuvan intimidating place to play-in. We're supposed to be bringing a big crowd. A planeload, a busload, plus a bunch of people coming up from the NYC area. We sold all 200 of our tickets we were allotted.

Y'all gonna still be around on this forum after this game???

 

[BigBird]

Bad karma... 77-70, them.

 

[BigBird]

Bad karma... 77-70, them.

Somebody hacked my account, because I would never have posted something so entirely stupid as this. I mean, I don't even know what "karma" means. Nope, not my work.

The dog ate my homework.

 

[triaddukefan]

guess i was right

 

[hoophuskee]

guess i was right

Yes you were. I love that spot - I've used it before - great pickup!!!!!!!!!

 

[Unconnscious]

UConn 82 SC 57

As much as ESPN and the rest of the WCB world has hyped this game, it simply won't come close to being a game, at least in the end. There are just too many factors going against SC that will allow them to keep this one close.

1. Stage fright - Huge game played before a boisterous home crowd and in front of a national television audience. Second nature for the Huskies...Gamecocks will be blinded by the bright lights and never see that train coming.

2. Intimidation - Simply put, all teams not named Notre Dame and Stanford are intimidated at the thought of playing the "Mighty Huskies".

3. Lack of high level competition - South Carolina played a weak OOC schedule and doesn't really face much competition in the SEC, which features lousy offensive / scrappy defensive-minded teams. But make no doubt, SC will be facing a defense tonight like none other they have ever faced.

The only saving grace for South Carolina is that they have a very competent coach and some very highly skilled talent. With that being said, the I can see SC keeping it close for a while, but once UConn gets going on their first run, it's going to be lights out after that. It's not that Geno has any hate for Dawn and SC, but I fully expect him to keep the foot on the pedal tonight in an attempt to demoralize SC in the event there is a second meeting this season.

Not back so much to toot my horn, although I did correctly predict the exact final margin of victory, and I did forecast a close game initially that would be over after UConn's first run. However, I really wanted to give the Dawn Staley and the SC team some kudos. I didn't see a team blinded by the light or intimidated. I saw a team that came out firing, running and gunning and taking it to the Huskies. However, we have heard this song before...the script of this game was very similar to that of the ND game. The Huskies took the opponents best shot and was surprisingly knocked off-balance momentarily; but quickly regained their composure and with a collective, quiet, confident, grin, said "Ok then, let's get it on"!

Again, props to SC...they proved they are deserving of a high ranking and that they are a team to be reckoned with come March. But in the end, SC simply does not have the overall player talent and coaching skills to match the Huskies. Continuously, UConn utilized it's offensive genius to get create high quality shots, and props to the players for executing them...to shoot 55% against such a high regarded defense is AMAZING! And the Huskies held SC to under 40% shooting...GREAT JOB!

While one question was answered loud and clear last night (UConn is definitely the #1 team in the land), another one looms...who is the 2nd best team? I am really looking forward to a potential Final Four matchup between ND and SC. I think these two teams comprise the second tier. After that, I think there is a slight drop off in the overall quality of teams.

 

[Beemer]

I honestly thought SC would give UConn a real game.

Sometimes it is good to be wrong

 

[j66kicker]

Not back so much to toot my horn, although I did correctly predict the exact final margin of victory, and I did forecast a close game initially that would be over after UConn's first run.

While one question was answered loud and clear last night (UConn is definitely the #1 team in the land), another one looms...who is the 2nd best team? I am really looking forward to a potential Final Four matchup between ND and SC. I think these two teams comprise the second tier. After that, I think there is a slight drop off in the overall quality of teams.

Agree.

And congrats on your prediction (toot toot!)