Predicted Outcome

[metsfan2323]

I think we are completely and utterly screwed. UConn is going to end up in an all sports league with the following:

UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Rutgers
Temple
Delaware
East Carolina
UCF
USF


.

Where are Cincy and Louisville?
SMU / Houston / Memphis would prefer west over east even when east baskeball is better and teams are closer?
Ohio would be invited if Cincy were gone.
Navy?

This is a step up for you. Yesterday you had us playing UNH.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Where are Cincy and Louisville?
SMU / Houston / Memphis would prefer west over east even when east baskeball is better and teams are closer?
Ohio would be invited if Cincy were gone.
Navy?

This is a step up for you. Yesterday you had us playing UNH.

Memphis, USM, Houston, SMU, Cincinnati and New Mexico is a relatively tight division by non- eastern standards. The corollary is also true about travel. Without a Big East basketball or football league, do SMU and Houston really justify the travel for UConn and Rutgers?

The Boise League, with SDSU, NM, UNLV and Memphis, would be a better basketball league than UConn (post Calhoun), Temple and whoever.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Nelson, you've gone off the deep end.

I don't even know where to begin, but you've lost any grasp of reality.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, you've gone off the deep end.

I don't even know where to begin, but you've lost any grasp of reality.

Oh. So we are going to the Big 10? Or ACC? Boise is staying if the league gets raided again? I think you are arguing that Houston or SMU would stay in a league with teams 1500 miles away, and I am saying they wouldn't. That is the fundamental difference between our positions.

 

[Dann]

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

I think we should try panicking. That always seems to work pretty well.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Oh. So we are going to the Big 10? Or ACC? Boise is staying if the league gets raided again? I think you are arguing that Houston or SMU would stay in a league with teams 1500 miles away, and I am saying they wouldn't. That is the fundamental difference between our positions.

Your proposed conference is below. You realize teams in their are actually further away than UConn, Rutgers and Temple?

You're arguing that Houston and SMU are going to willingly align themselves in an all sports conference with Fresno State and Nevada over UConn and Rutgers? UConn and Rutgers are closer to Houston than those schools for christ sake, so don't give me the travel BS.

"West: SDSU, Boise, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, CSU

East: New Mexico, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Southern Miss"

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your proposed conference is below. You realize teams in their are actually further away than UConn, Rutgers and Temple?

You're arguing that Houston and SMU are going to willingly align themselves in an all sports conference with Fresno State and Nevada over UConn and Rutgers? UConn and Rutgers are closer to Houston than those schools for christ sake, so don't give me the travel BS.

"West: SDSU, Boise, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, CSU

East: New Mexico, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Southern Miss"

First of all, San Diego is closer to Dallas than UConn, and Boise and Reno are about the same distance. Secondly, New Mexico, Memphis, Cincinnati and Southern Miss are not further than UConn, and that western conference is happening with them or without them, and that western league has a few teams that have finished the year ranked very highly in recent years, while UConn and Rutgers are UConn and Rutgers. Either way, do SMU and Houston really make that much of a difference?

If Boise forms a western league without UConn and Rutgers, we are screwed. It will become the de facto 6th league. The playoff is going to drive anyone outside the Big 4 to really need a "bell cow". Boise is that bell cow. UConn and Rutgers are not bell cows.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

First of all, San Diego is closer to Dallas than UConn, and Boise and Reno are about the same distance. Secondly, New Mexico, Memphis, Cincinnati and Southern Miss are not further than UConn, and that western conference is happening with them or without them, and that western league has a few teams that have finished the year ranked very highly in recent years, while UConn and Rutgers are UConn and Rutgers. Either way, do SMU and Houston really make that much of a difference?

If Boise forms a western league without UConn and Rutgers, we are screwed. It will become the de facto 6th league. The playoff is going to drive anyone outside the Big 4 to really need a "bell cow". Boise is that bell cow. UConn and Rutgers are not bell cows.

Rutgers and UConn are easily the most valuable properties along with Boise State in this potential scenario.

No TV executive is going to sign a deal with that conference with Rutgers and UConn standing on the sideline.

 

[mavblues]

Not to be mean but UConn has as much a chance of making that 4 team playoff as PC does of winning the current BE conference.

 

[Sean]

Your selected user name is so, so appropriate.

 

[zls44]

Boise and SDSU are basically giving up on going to the NCAA tourney as an at-large as is.

SPIT TAKE

San Diego State? Really? They don't want to go as an at-large?

 

[willie99]

Kevin macNamarra says Villanova, Georgetown and Notre Dame want no part of a breakup, so how does your new basketball league look with Marquette as the bell cow?

that oughta bring in the big bucks, eh?

 

[willie99]

what kind of mind actually thinks of this stuff?

does this guy kick puppies and run to beat 90 year old ladies to the last seat on the train?

I'm thinking yes

 

[willie99]

now that made me laugh

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My point is that UConn's best realistic outcome, by far, is that the current Big East holds together, and signs a deal with NBC, which will probably require also signing a GoR. Otherwise, we get the New Yankee Conference, because things will really come apart quickly.

Unfortunately, I put the odds of the Big East holding together at less than 50/50. If Notre Dame, Louisville or the hoops schools leave, that will cause Boise and SDSU to leave, and then the conference ship drops straight to the bottom of the ocean pretty fast.

If Boise decides they don't want to be in a league with two schools 2000 miles away like UConn and Rutgers, and we get into a tug of war for teams, Boise is going to kick our ass. A) They are Boise and will have shots at a National Championship in the new playoff system, B) a league will coalesce around Boise almost immediately, which will put a big tug on Houston and SMU to join, and C) Houston, Memphis and SMU know that UConn and Rutgers are still moderately attractive as expansion candidates and will jump at the first chance they get, whereas the new Boise league will be stable.

I think UConn and Rutgers are very attractive to a conference, particularly as a package deal. Unfortunately, no one that matters at the Big 10, ACC, Big 12 or SEC seems to agree with me.

 

[mattp]

do you realize you just said a league will coalesce around Boise? think about that for a minute. if it doesn't sound ridiculous i'd like to buy some of your drugs

 

[metsfan2323]

My point is that UConn's best realistic outcome, by far, is that the current Big East holds together, and signs a deal with NBC, which will probably require also signing a GoR. Otherwise, we get the New Yankee Conference, because things will really come apart quickly.

Unfortunately, I put the odds of the Big East holding together at less than 50/50. If Notre Dame, Louisville or the hoops schools leave, that will cause Boise and SDSU to leave, and then the conference ship drops straight to the bottom of the ocean pretty fast.

If Boise decides they don't want to be in a league with two schools 2000 miles away like UConn and Rutgers, and we get into a tug of war for teams, Boise is going to kick our ass. A) They are Boise and will have shots at a National Championship in the new playoff system, B) a league will coalesce around Boise almost immediately, which will put a big tug on Houston and SMU to join, and C) Houston, Memphis and SMU know that UConn and Rutgers are still moderately attractive as expansion candidates and will jump at the first chance they get, whereas the new Boise league will be stable.

I think UConn and Rutgers are very attractive to a conference, particularly as a package deal. Unfortunately, no one that matters at the Big 10, ACC, Big 12 or SEC seems to agree with me.

I do think it would be wise for Susan to try and lead a movement that would somehow hold everyone together. If something could be signed that makes it painful to leave. The unknown seems much more dangerous to our program than the new Big East does. Unless she has something rock solid up her sleave.

 

[junglehusky]

So if we take the polar opposite of the scenario Nelson postulated, that would probably be UConn winding up the Big Ten happily ever after. I think it's a pretty safe bet the eventual outcome will be somewhere in between the best possible scenario and the worst possible scenario.

Up until the FSU/B12 rumors became more widespread (notice I didn't say credible), nelson's prediction was that that the NNBE with Boise and the gang would stick together and get its payday. At the time I think where I disagreed with him was whether it was in UConn's best interest to pursue other options. Now that some of the smaller pieces are moving (WAC dissolving, CUSA replacing defections) and there are blogger / messageboard rumors/speculation of further B12 raids and Boise second thoughts, Nelson thinks we're boned. I'm not going to say that's impossible, it is one possibility but I would bet on it being a remote one. If anything the NNBE payday scenario with GOR is as likely a scenario as any other, especially if you believe the rumor that Louisville now farther down the B12 list of candidates. I guess the one thing that would enable the doomsday scenario would be if the western teams thought they could band together and get as big of a payday as they would with the NNBE contract, I haven't seen anything that would support that yet.

 

[junglehusky]

So let's say the NNBE does dissolve. Does Nelson think that Swofford, Delaney and Bowlsby all say " UConn, we won't even bother calling them". Who knows, maybe DeFillipo has pictures of Swofford with Colombian hookers in in his safe or whatever - but you think those guys aren't even going to consider UConn? Nothing's guaranteed, maybe we don't get marriage proposals right off the bat but you gotta think we at least get taken out for a nice dinner at an expensive restaurant and some flowers.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Nelson, did someone forgot to take their happy pill?
Best outcome for Uconn is in the NBE?

There are so many possibilities that I guarantee whatever does happen isn't mentioned in any of the postings...

However, if the BE does stay intact and we add another decent school out west, I am okay with that. There is some real potential in this league to compete:
- Boise has been a top 10 program. That will help
- Houston is in huge FB friendly market. They are on a big upswing that could be faster than Louisville's rise
- Louisville is a wildcard... if they stay, they are a program on the rise
- UCF/USF are in FB hotbeds and already beat the other FL schools. A rivalry there would be huge
- Memphis has been down, but at some point they will get their act together. Could be another Louisville if they decide to compete in FB...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So let's say the NNBE does dissolve. Does Nelson think that Swofford, Delaney and Bowlsby all say " UConn, we won't even bother calling them". Who knows, maybe DeFillipo has pictures of Swofford with Colombian hookers in in his safe or whatever - but you think those guys aren't even going to consider UConn? Nothing's guaranteed, maybe we don't get marriage proposals right off the bat but you gotta think we at least get taken out for a nice dinner at an expensive restaurant and some flowers.

Do you think that Herbst hasn't already asked everyone, more than once? If anyone was going to add us, they would have already added us. And do you think they would add UConn because they feel sorry for us? Has that ever happened in expansion? Did the Big East feel sorry for CUSA when we grabbed Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Marquette and Depaul 9 years ago? This is law of the jungle time. Kill or be killed.

They only reason anyone will add UConn is if they have to. Why would any league pay $15MM+ per year per school because they feel sorry for us? If the ACC thinks UConn and Rutgers are going to sink down to a Yankee conference on par with CUSA, they will happily let us go. It would be possible to rise out of that situation, but it would be hard.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

do you realize you just said a league will coalesce around Boise? think about that for a minute. if it doesn't sound ridiculous i'd like to buy some of your drugs

I haven't seen a position from you, just unclever chirping from the cheap seats. Can I put you down for "UConn is going to the Big 10"?

p.s. Asking someone if they are on drugs is no longer clever. Just old and cliched.

 

[junglehusky]

Do you think that Herbst hasn't already asked everyone, more than once? If anyone was going to add us, they would have already added us. And do you think they would add UConn because they feel sorry for us? Has that ever happened in expansion? Did the Big East feel sorry for CUSA when we grabbed Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Marquette and Depaul 9 years ago? This is law of the jungle time. Kill or be killed.

Yes I think Herbst has been working the phones since the fall. No, I don't think that just because we haven't been invited yet means the door is closed forever. No, I don't think they will add UConn out of pity. No, I don't think anyone has ever been added for that reason, and although perhaps Northwestern and Vandy might have qualified for that scenario they were probably added and maintained as members in their respective leagues for historical and political reasons (i.e., their presidents maintaining relationships with their peers at other schools). No, we did not add Louisville, etc. because we felt sorry. We added them because they were raising their academic and athletic profiles and it was beneficial to all parties involved.

If armageddon goes down I think we can make a reasonable case to another conference, whether that would be the ACC minus FSU (you think they'll sit tight after losing that program?) or some emerging hybrid of old BE teams and NNBE teams after both conferences blow up. Heck we can make a good case to the B12 if they want to expand east. You would have us go home, lock ourselves in our room, wear black clothes and listen to the Smiths while eating a tub of Ben and Jerry's.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Can anyone remember the last conference commissioner to be fired? Karl Benson had his league split in two, lost every good team he had despite being arguably competitive with the MWC on the field, then 10 years later the WAC dissolved, and he still not just left on his own, but got another job. Tom Hansen ran the Pac 10 for 26 years while their TV revenues were a fraction of where they should have been. For Marinatto to get fired, the house is not just on fire, it has already burned down.

Something really serious has already happened that we do not know about.

Edit: Weiberg was effectively fired by the Big 12, and that league had to lose 1/3 of its members for that to happen.

 

[Jax Husky]

nelson, you have become pretty insufferable with your doom and gloom predictions. Why do you have so much self loathing going on?

 

[Dann]

Can anyone remember the last conference commissioner to be fired? Karl Benson had his league split in two, lost every good team he had despite being arguably competitive with the MWC on the field, then 10 years later the WAC dissolved, and he still not just left on his own, but got another job. Tom Hansen ran the Pac 10 for 26 years while their TV revenues were a fraction of where they should have been. For Marinatto to get fired, the house is not just on fire, it has already burned down.

Something really serious has already happened that we do not know about.

Edit: Weiberg was effectively fired by the Big 12, and that league had to lose 1/3 of its members for that to happen.

while i'm more make crazy new confs up for fun and stuff and your more doom i do somewhat agree with this. for him to get fired means something is up. and i find it interesting that we just said the usual were a be team blah blah. i feel something big is going to drop. i think teams are moving and i think a split will happen. i have no clue whta happens to uconn but i'm on the edge of my seat every day wondering. i think that some fball schools on the move was the last draw for the bball schools. getting rid of marinate was there first step towards a split. wehter they add form thr a10 or somewhat merge i think getting rid of marinate for them was a way to get a commish for there bball league that they liked and saw as a good fit.

the b12 has to add 2 schools asap to get a csg. they need that so they bump there numbers another 2-3 mil right away. adding 2 to 4 more for 16 is more of specualtion. in order to leave the acc for 2013, the deadline is in june or july i think. if we get to august and nothing is done yet by the b12, then something is extremely fishy and up. if no acc schoos, move at all then its nbe teams that will be moving and then its a guesing game of lville/byu and who else. scary times are ahead, i hope we make out well somehow.

 

[mattp]

I haven't seen a position from you, just unclever chirping from the cheap seats. Can I put you down for "UConn is going to the Big 10"?

p.s. Asking someone if they are on drugs is no longer clever. Just old and cliched.

is it as old and cliched as you predicting the end of UConn athletics? FTR I don't think FSU and Clemson will move to the B12 (i have yet to hear a compelling reason they'd leave), i think ND will stay independent forever, and i think we'll be in the NNBE for 4-5 years until being invited to the B1G.

reasons i think we'll get a B1G invite:
1. highly rated public school in the northeast, which will expand their footprint basically into all of new england and new york.
2. bball- B1G bball never has been that great, despite having great programs like MISt and Indiana, and i think we'd help them establish themselves as a premier bball league
3. women's bball-B1G cares more about "throwaway" sports than most, and we're pretty much a monopoly in wbball, so we'd basically deliver that entire sport
4. FB -we're competitive, but not so good as to be seen as threatening to the established top dogs. B12 aside (who did it for survival reasons) nobody brought in teams that will really challenge the top dogs and i think that's by design.
5. hockey - this is obviously still up in the air, but hopefully we'll have a relatively developed D1 hockey program in case the B1G wants to add hockey as has been speculated

reasons the ACC won't want us:
pretty much the inverse of everything above. we'll threaten all of their traditional powers in bball and fball and they won't want that. we don't expand their footprint, so we won't really add TV $. the ACC would probably like to starve UConn out of relevance so Cuse and BC can feast on our market and so they won't have to compete with us against recruits.

BTW, cliche or not, there's no way a sober mind would ever think that a conference will coalesce around Boise State.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

nelson, you have become pretty insufferable with your doom and gloom predictions. Why do you have so much self loathing going on?

Predicting a pair of 3's is a losing hand in seven card stud is not pessimism. It is recognition of reality.

 

[junglehusky]

Predicting a pair of 3's is a losing hand in seven card stud is not pessimism. It is recognition of reality.

We don't have the best hand at the table, but we're not trying to win the whole pot, we just want to stay in the game, which realistically is possible.