Predicted Outcome

[Marty Jackson]

Nelson, did someone forgot to take their happy pill?
Best outcome for Uconn is in the NBE?

There are so many possibilities that I guarantee whatever does happen isn't mentioned in any of the postings...

However, if the BE does stay intact and we add another decent school out west, I am okay with that. There is some real potential in this league to compete:
- Boise has been a top 10 program. That will help
- Houston is in huge FB friendly market. They are on a big upswing that could be faster than Louisville's rise
- Louisville is a wildcard... if they stay, they are a program on the rise
- UCF/USF are in FB hotbeds and already beat the other FL schools. A rivalry there would be huge
- Memphis has been down, but at some point they will get their act together. Could be another Louisville if they decide to compete in FB...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So let's say the NNBE does dissolve. Does Nelson think that Swofford, Delaney and Bowlsby all say " UConn, we won't even bother calling them". Who knows, maybe DeFillipo has pictures of Swofford with Colombian hookers in in his safe or whatever - but you think those guys aren't even going to consider UConn? Nothing's guaranteed, maybe we don't get marriage proposals right off the bat but you gotta think we at least get taken out for a nice dinner at an expensive restaurant and some flowers.

Do you think that Herbst hasn't already asked everyone, more than once? If anyone was going to add us, they would have already added us. And do you think they would add UConn because they feel sorry for us? Has that ever happened in expansion? Did the Big East feel sorry for CUSA when we grabbed Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Marquette and Depaul 9 years ago? This is law of the jungle time. Kill or be killed.

They only reason anyone will add UConn is if they have to. Why would any league pay $15MM+ per year per school because they feel sorry for us? If the ACC thinks UConn and Rutgers are going to sink down to a Yankee conference on par with CUSA, they will happily let us go. It would be possible to rise out of that situation, but it would be hard.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

do you realize you just said a league will coalesce around Boise? think about that for a minute. if it doesn't sound ridiculous i'd like to buy some of your drugs

I haven't seen a position from you, just unclever chirping from the cheap seats. Can I put you down for "UConn is going to the Big 10"?

p.s. Asking someone if they are on drugs is no longer clever. Just old and cliched.

 

[junglehusky]

Do you think that Herbst hasn't already asked everyone, more than once? If anyone was going to add us, they would have already added us. And do you think they would add UConn because they feel sorry for us? Has that ever happened in expansion? Did the Big East feel sorry for CUSA when we grabbed Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, Marquette and Depaul 9 years ago? This is law of the jungle time. Kill or be killed.

Yes I think Herbst has been working the phones since the fall. No, I don't think that just because we haven't been invited yet means the door is closed forever. No, I don't think they will add UConn out of pity. No, I don't think anyone has ever been added for that reason, and although perhaps Northwestern and Vandy might have qualified for that scenario they were probably added and maintained as members in their respective leagues for historical and political reasons (i.e., their presidents maintaining relationships with their peers at other schools). No, we did not add Louisville, etc. because we felt sorry. We added them because they were raising their academic and athletic profiles and it was beneficial to all parties involved.

If armageddon goes down I think we can make a reasonable case to another conference, whether that would be the ACC minus FSU (you think they'll sit tight after losing that program?) or some emerging hybrid of old BE teams and NNBE teams after both conferences blow up. Heck we can make a good case to the B12 if they want to expand east. You would have us go home, lock ourselves in our room, wear black clothes and listen to the Smiths while eating a tub of Ben and Jerry's.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Can anyone remember the last conference commissioner to be fired? Karl Benson had his league split in two, lost every good team he had despite being arguably competitive with the MWC on the field, then 10 years later the WAC dissolved, and he still not just left on his own, but got another job. Tom Hansen ran the Pac 10 for 26 years while their TV revenues were a fraction of where they should have been. For Marinatto to get fired, the house is not just on fire, it has already burned down.

Something really serious has already happened that we do not know about.

Edit: Weiberg was effectively fired by the Big 12, and that league had to lose 1/3 of its members for that to happen.

 

[Jax Husky]

nelson, you have become pretty insufferable with your doom and gloom predictions. Why do you have so much self loathing going on?

 

[Dann]

Can anyone remember the last conference commissioner to be fired? Karl Benson had his league split in two, lost every good team he had despite being arguably competitive with the MWC on the field, then 10 years later the WAC dissolved, and he still not just left on his own, but got another job. Tom Hansen ran the Pac 10 for 26 years while their TV revenues were a fraction of where they should have been. For Marinatto to get fired, the house is not just on fire, it has already burned down.

Something really serious has already happened that we do not know about.

Edit: Weiberg was effectively fired by the Big 12, and that league had to lose 1/3 of its members for that to happen.

while i'm more make crazy new confs up for fun and stuff and your more doom i do somewhat agree with this. for him to get fired means something is up. and i find it interesting that we just said the usual were a be team blah blah. i feel something big is going to drop. i think teams are moving and i think a split will happen. i have no clue whta happens to uconn but i'm on the edge of my seat every day wondering. i think that some fball schools on the move was the last draw for the bball schools. getting rid of marinate was there first step towards a split. wehter they add form thr a10 or somewhat merge i think getting rid of marinate for them was a way to get a commish for there bball league that they liked and saw as a good fit.

the b12 has to add 2 schools asap to get a csg. they need that so they bump there numbers another 2-3 mil right away. adding 2 to 4 more for 16 is more of specualtion. in order to leave the acc for 2013, the deadline is in june or july i think. if we get to august and nothing is done yet by the b12, then something is extremely fishy and up. if no acc schoos, move at all then its nbe teams that will be moving and then its a guesing game of lville/byu and who else. scary times are ahead, i hope we make out well somehow.

 

[mattp]

I haven't seen a position from you, just unclever chirping from the cheap seats. Can I put you down for "UConn is going to the Big 10"?

p.s. Asking someone if they are on drugs is no longer clever. Just old and cliched.

is it as old and cliched as you predicting the end of UConn athletics? FTR I don't think FSU and Clemson will move to the B12 (i have yet to hear a compelling reason they'd leave), i think ND will stay independent forever, and i think we'll be in the NNBE for 4-5 years until being invited to the B1G.

reasons i think we'll get a B1G invite:
1. highly rated public school in the northeast, which will expand their footprint basically into all of new england and new york.
2. bball- B1G bball never has been that great, despite having great programs like MISt and Indiana, and i think we'd help them establish themselves as a premier bball league
3. women's bball-B1G cares more about "throwaway" sports than most, and we're pretty much a monopoly in wbball, so we'd basically deliver that entire sport
4. FB -we're competitive, but not so good as to be seen as threatening to the established top dogs. B12 aside (who did it for survival reasons) nobody brought in teams that will really challenge the top dogs and i think that's by design.
5. hockey - this is obviously still up in the air, but hopefully we'll have a relatively developed D1 hockey program in case the B1G wants to add hockey as has been speculated

reasons the ACC won't want us:
pretty much the inverse of everything above. we'll threaten all of their traditional powers in bball and fball and they won't want that. we don't expand their footprint, so we won't really add TV $. the ACC would probably like to starve UConn out of relevance so Cuse and BC can feast on our market and so they won't have to compete with us against recruits.

BTW, cliche or not, there's no way a sober mind would ever think that a conference will coalesce around Boise State.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

nelson, you have become pretty insufferable with your doom and gloom predictions. Why do you have so much self loathing going on?

Predicting a pair of 3's is a losing hand in seven card stud is not pessimism. It is recognition of reality.

 

[junglehusky]

Predicting a pair of 3's is a losing hand in seven card stud is not pessimism. It is recognition of reality.

We don't have the best hand at the table, but we're not trying to win the whole pot, we just want to stay in the game, which realistically is possible.

 

[Jax Husky]

Predicting a pair of 3's is a losing hand in seven card stud is not pessimism. It is recognition of reality.

We'll just have to disagree that UConn is holding a pair of 3s though.

 

[The Funster]

nelson should change his user name to eeyore

 

[IthacaMatt]

I say ND decides to start their own league. It soothes the egos from South Bend and keeps ND in the drivers seat.

ND/BCU/UConn/Rutgers/PennSt/MD/Pitt/Cuse/Lville/Temple/Clemson/FSU

Sign contract with NBC and all games are broadcast on the Irish Network. All schools keep T3 rights and cede T1 and T2 to the Big N League. Each school receives 25-30M per year

If you're going to spin fantasy, I would suggest that if ND gets to make their own league, they would want USC and a couple Big 10 schools. No desire for Clemson, FSU or Temple.

 

[UCFBfan]

Can anyone remember the last conference commissioner to be fired? Karl Benson had his league split in two, lost every good team he had despite being arguably competitive with the MWC on the field, then 10 years later the WAC dissolved, and he still not just left on his own, but got another job. Tom Hansen ran the Pac 10 for 26 years while their TV revenues were a fraction of where they should have been. For Marinatto to get fired, the house is not just on fire, it has already burned down.

Something really serious has already happened that we do not know about.

Edit: Weiberg was effectively fired by the Big 12, and that league had to lose 1/3 of its members for that to happen.

I don't know if you mistyped the person from the Big 12 but Dan Beebe was fired/forced out of the Big 12. That conference was almost dead until the Pac-12 basically said no to Oklahoma and Texas. However, now look at where they are at. They got a new commish, got WVU and TCU and OU and UT aren't threatening to leave. They got a mega TV deal and look pretty solid for years to come. They'll probably nab Louisville, thus making the Big East worthless anymore and possibly grab Cincy or BYU. Now, not saying the NBE is a great scenario for UConn and I don't have many positive thoughts going forward, I have to say tat you are beyond off the deep end with your doom and gloom! I think Louisville can be written off but we'll still be in a decent spot for the time being. Maybe we'll get a new commish who will be football friendly and able to wield this conference to some kind of prominence. It'll be tough because of the bball/fball make up and the fact that no solid FB program is going to leave it's power conference for the NBE. But I can't see Boise going anywhere since they'll be making loads more in the NBE than in the MWC, no matter what the new TV deal is. So there's hope....no need to slice your wrists.....

 

[ConnHuskBask]

If Boise decides they don't want to be in a league with two schools 2000 miles away like UConn and Rutgers, and we get into a tug of war for teams, Boise is going to kick our ass. A) They are Boise and will have shots at a National Championship in the new playoff system, B) a league will coalesce around Boise almost immediately, which will put a big tug on Houston and SMU to join, and C) Houston, Memphis and SMU know that UConn and Rutgers are still moderately attractive as expansion candidates and will jump at the first chance they get, whereas the new Boise league will be stable.

Boise State is in it for football only. They'll have to go to either Connecticut or NJ once a year at most.

BE Football right now is a league "coalesced" around Boise State. All of the remaining best non-AQ teams are in the Big East. The Big East is already the "best of the rest" conference. You are suggesting that this league breaks up, essentially reforms, but leaves out UConn and Rutgers - the two best remaining brands remaining.

No league is going to take Southern Miss or New Mexico in lieu of UConn and Rutgers. It's just not happening.

The fact that you continue to belabor that point and suggest we will be in a league with Delaware is just intellectually dishonest.

 

[mavblues]

This thread:

 

[whaler11]

Predicting a pair of 3's is a losing hand in seven card stud is not pessimism. It is recognition of reality.

Yet you argued the opposite for years? Why do you hate UConn? Why do you hate the Big East?

 

[whaler11]

I can't wait for the premier of THEY ARE BOISE.

A glorified junior college in Idaho is going to call all the shots. Gold Nelson Gold.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I can't wait for the premier of THEY ARE BOISE.

A glorified junior college in Idaho is going to call all the shots. Gold Nelson Gold.

Actually, Boise is calling the shots. And western papers are carrying lots of leaks about them potentially bailing on the Big East. But enlighten me, who is calling the shots according to you?

Anyway, it seems the events of the day, including the Katz story and Boise's need for a home, are carrying us closer to my Armageddon. There is one life raft, and that is dependent on Clemson and FSU, and no more than 4 schools, leaving the ACC. That is our only realistic hope right now, because if they don't leave, the Big East is going to get curb stomped by the Big 12, and UConn will be playing in the Yankee Conference.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yet you argued the opposite for years? Why do you hate UConn? Why do you hate the Big East?

Because UConn had a pretty good situation for years. And if the leadership had shown a bit more forethought in terms of holding together the membership, all the schools would be on their way to a big pile of money. Alas, Pitt and Syracuse blew their wad for a few extra dollars, and everything unraveled pretty quickly thereafter.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Boise State is in it for football only. They'll have to go to either Connecticut or NJ once a year at most.

BE Football right now is a league "coalesced" around Boise State. All of the remaining best non-AQ teams are in the Big East. The Big East is already the "best of the rest" conference. You are suggesting that this league breaks up, essentially reforms, but leaves out UConn and Rutgers - the two best remaining brands remaining.

No league is going to take Southern Miss or New Mexico in lieu of UConn and Rutgers. It's just not happening.

The fact that you continue to belabor that point and suggest we will be in a league with Delaware is just intellectually dishonest.

A cross country league works for football. It does not work for basketball. Some have posited that Rutgers and UConn could hang on as members of a Big East basketball league while playing in a football league across the country. Possible, but I have a hard time seeing the hoops schools putting up with that. I think that once they leave, they are gone for good.

So then everyone left gets to make a choice. Align with UConn and Rutgers who will bail out at the first opportunity, or with Boise and the western schools who are never going to be candidates for the Pac 12. I think SMU and Houston align with Boise. Does it really matter at that point? I also believe that Herbst will look to control travel costs for the non-football sports in that situation, which means a regional league.

With three major state schools in UMass, Rutgers and UConn, plus Temple and whoever, maybe that league can swing a $8-10MM/year TV deal on the strength of the Boston to Philly corridor is someone from the league can emerge as competitive.

 

[Dann]

A cross country league works for football. It does not work for basketball. Some have posited that Rutgers and UConn could hang on as members of a Big East basketball league while playing in a football league across the country. Possible, but I have a hard time seeing the hoops schools putting up with that. I think that once they leave, they are gone for good.

So then everyone left gets to make a choice. Align with UConn and Rutgers who will bail out at the first opportunity, or with Boise and the western schools who are never going to be candidates for the Pac 12. I think SMU and Houston align with Boise. Does it really matter at that point? I also believe that Herbst will look to control travel costs for the non-football sports in that situation, which means a regional league.

With three major state schools in UMass, Rutgers and UConn, plus Temple and whoever, maybe that league can swing a $8-10MM/year TV deal on the strength of the Boston to Philly corridor is someone from the league can emerge as competitive.

so the yankee league in your head in 2015 is:
uconn/ruty/temple/navy/army/ecu/umass/buff/del???

 

[nelsonmuntz]

so the yankee league in your head in 2015 is:
uconn/ruty/temple/navy/army/ecu/umass/buff/del???

Army and Navy may stay independent, but overall, sure.

 

[whaler11]

Because UConn had a pretty good situation for years. And if the leadership had shown a bit more forethought in terms of holding together the membership, all the schools would be on their way to a big pile of money. Alas, Pitt and Syracuse blew their wad for a few extra dollars, and everything unraveled pretty quickly thereafter.

There was always going to be more money for the top schools elsewhere. They were always going to chase it. Blame Pitt and Syracuse if you like, but if UConn had the opportunity and passed I'd be in Storrs with a torch and pitchfork.

 

[whaler11]

so the yankee league in your head in 2015 is:
uconn/ruty/temple/navy/army/ecu/umass/buff/del???

What you think of his nonsense is what the rest of us think of your nonsense. Just keep that in mind.