Predicted Outcome

[nelsonmuntz]

I think we are completely and utterly screwed. UConn is going to end up in an all sports league with the following:

UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Rutgers
Temple
Delaware
East Carolina
UCF
USF


Basketball schools split, league comes unraveled quickly. Boise and SDSU, with no home for non-football sports, but with an opening to be the #5 league after the ACC has become the D1 Patriot League, join with Houston, SMU and Memphis, raid the MWC and CUSA again. Pick your 5-7 teams (USM, Tulsa, New Mexico, CSU, Nevada, whoever). Get a decent deal with NBC. Don't see much value traveling all the way to the east coast, so they don't invite the Florida or northeast schools.

UConn needs to cut costs, no opportunity for a major conference invite, wants regional conference with manageable travel. 50/50 that UCF and USF reach the same conclusion, try to join CUSA after USM and Tulsa or whoever join the Boise conference. In that case, replace UCF and USF with two CAA upgrades (UNH, James Madison).

Between UConn, Temple and UMass, the league is a 2 bid league to the NCAA most years, about the 8th or 9th best hoops league after the Big 4, nACC, Boise Conference, Catholic League and A10, and MVC, and maybe the 7th best football league after the Big 4, nACC and Boise Conference.

On the plus side, we can drive to a lot of the away games.

THAT is our future.

BegHarder.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Are you always this optimistic?

 

[The Funster]

Your mission is start a new board for that league and hang out there until the league is formed and the rest of us show up, OK?

 

[TRest]

I could see this happening, maybe a 10% chance. It depends if the ACC get raided and how many schools leave. I can't fathom how a half-ass athletic program like Pitt skates while we get left behind, but being a has-been in major college football has some benefits. I really hope a story doesn't come out years from now that UConn was approached by the ACC but couldn't make a quick committment, do to a leadership vaccuum at the time.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your mission is start a new board for that league and hang out there until the league is formed and the rest of us show up, OK?

Let me know when the Big 10 invitation arrives.

 

[CTMike]

I think we are completely and utterly screwed. UConn is going to end up in an all sports league with the following:

UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Rutgers
Temple
Delaware
East Carolina
UCF
USF


Basketball schools split, league comes unraveled quickly. Boise and SDSU, with no home for non-football sports, but with an opening to be the #5 league after the ACC has become the D1 Patriot League, join with Houston, SMU and Memphis, raid the MWC and CUSA again. Pick your 5-7 teams (USM, Tulsa, New Mexico, CSU, Nevada, whoever). Get a decent deal with NBC. Don't see much value traveling all the way to the east coast, so they don't invite the Florida or northeast schools.

UConn needs to cut costs, no opportunity for a major conference invite, wants regional conference with manageable travel. 50/50 that UCF and USF reach the same conclusion, try to join CUSA after USM and Tulsa or whoever join the Boise conference. In that case, replace UCF and USF with two CAA upgrades (UNH, James Madison).

Between UConn, Temple and UMass, the league is a 2 bid league to the NCAA most years, about the 8th or 9th best hoops league after the Big 4, nACC, Boise Conference, Catholic League and A10, and MVC, and maybe the 7th best football league after the Big 4, nACC and Boise Conference.

On the plus side, we can drive to a lot of the away games.

THAT is our future.

BegHarder.

While I realize that there is little in UConn's direct control, this will happen over Herbst and Manuel's dead bodies.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I could see this happening, maybe a 10% chance. It depends if the ACC get raided and how many schools leave. I can't fathom how a half-ass athletic program like Pitt skates while we get left behind, but being a has-been in major college football has some benefits. I really hope a story doesn't come out years from now that UConn was approached by the ACC but couldn't make a quick committment, do to a leadership vaccuum at the time.

I thought the Big 12 was toast a year ago, but now, they are where they are.

The Baylor board is saying that the Big 12 will add 4, all from the ACC, while Luck has told people that WVU will have a regional rival in the Big 12. If Louisville is off the table, Pitt could be a very logical choice, with maybe FSU, Miami, Clemson, and Pitt to the Big 12. The Big 12 looked hard at Pitt once already.

 

[freescooter]

nelson,

I'm just curious, but where are these basketball schools leaving for? To become the next A-10?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

While I realize that there is little in UConn's direct control, this will happen over Herbst and Manuel's dead bodies.

The only way my scenario, or some approximation, does NOT happen is if for some reason the Big 12 stays at 10 or just adds FSU and Clemson and then holds tight.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Lmao. Just yesterday you suggested Vandy and Northwestern leave the two most profitable leagues in America to team up with Rice and Tulane with a couple hoops only teams.

The above suggestion is just as absurd.

I can't even tell if you're messing with us and just trying to rile people up at this point, oif you have some serious depression issues.

Look if the hoops schools leave it will suck, but I still fail to see how a C-USA Hybrid gets more tv money, than a BE with the best of C-USA and Mtn West.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

nelson,

I'm just curious, but where are these basketball schools leaving for? To become the next A-10?

Ask Blaudschon or Marinatto. It seems like the hoops schools are close to pulling the plug on the Big East. Villanova and friends could raid the A10 in a heartbeat if they wanted to.

 

[freescooter]

Ask Blaudschon or Marinatto. It seems like the hoops schools are close to pulling the plug on the Big East. Villanova and friends could raid the A10 in a heartbeat if they wanted to.

Kevin macNamarra says Villanova, Georgetown and Notre Dame want no part of a breakup, so how does your new basketball league look with Marquette as the bell cow?

 

[The Funster]

I say ND decides to start their own league. It soothes the egos from South Bend and keeps ND in the drivers seat.

ND/BCU/UConn/Rutgers/PennSt/MD/Pitt/Cuse/Lville/Temple/Clemson/FSU

Sign contract with NBC and all games are broadcast on the Irish Network. All schools keep T3 rights and cede T1 and T2 to the Big N League. Each school receives 25-30M per year

 

[noeynox]

After reading that, my only solace is knowing that a lot of your predictions have been way off the mark. I do agree with you on one thing though, people wishing for the demise if the big east didn't really get that such a scenario could be potentially lethal for UConn athletics.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lmao. Just yesterday you suggested Vandy and Northwestern leave the two most profitable leagues in America to team up with Rice and Tulane with a couple hoops only teams.

The above suggestion is just as absurd.

I can't even tell if you're messing with us and just trying to rile people up at this point, oif you have some serious depression issues.

Look if the hoops schools leave it will suck, but I still fail to see how a C-USA Hybrid gets more tv money, than a BE with the best of C-USA and Mtn West.

Because Boise and SDSU decide that they can get similar money by staying in the west, adding the best of CUSA and the MWC, and forming their own league without the remote outpost in the northeast. You can make a cross country football conference work, but basketball becomes a nightmare.

Tulane and Rice were the most insignificant part of that scenario. If that is your only complaint with it, I will assume we are in agreement.

If you don't like the outcome above, give me a realistic alternative.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

After reading that, my only solace is knowing that a lot of your predictions have been way off the mark. I do agree with you on one thing though, people wishing for the demise if the big east didn't really get that such a scenario could be potentially lethal for UConn athletics.

The most way off the mark I have been about this was when I didn't believe the Syracuse/Pitt rumors because I couldn't figure out why anyone would invite those two instead of Rutgers and UConn. I think this whole board was in the same boat on that.

The Big 12 thing with the ACC has legs of its own. It may not happen, but it is no longer just a theory.

 

[huskypantz]

The only way this scenario occurs is if Louisville and Cincy go to the B12 alone, BE splits and no other team changes conferences. The B12 do not want UL and Cincy as their last 2. They want ND, then FSU, then Clemson, then (insert a few other ACC schools), then UL. UL and Cincy are not going to the B12 together unless it's part of a 4 or 6 team realignment. If the BE splits, do you think the Domers stick with one of the two conferences, or do they move on? I think they have to find a way to move on, and they will and can shop themselves around. Which means another spot with another conference (although maybe not football if they can get away with it).

Not - gunna - happen.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The only way this scenario occurs is if Louisville and Cincy go to the B12 alone, BE splits and no other team changes conferences. The B12 do not want UL and Cincy as their last 2. They want ND, then FSU, then Clemson, then (insert a few other ACC schools), then UL. UL and Cincy are not going to the B12 together unless it's part of a 4 or 6 team realignment. If the BE splits, do you think the Domers stick with one of the two conferences, or do they move on? I think they have to find a way to move on, and they will and can shop themselves around. Which means another spot with another conference (although maybe not football if they can get away with it).

Not - gunna - happen.

I assumed that Cincinnati and/or Louisville head west with Boise and the rest. If you were those schools, would you stay east with UConn, Rutgers and Temple, or go west with Boise? If both Louisville and Cincinnati are still available, maybe UConn holds onto them. If Louisville is gone, I think Cincinnati follows Memphis and Houston west with Boise.

It is pretty safe to assume that Boise and SDSU stay west if the Big East unravels anymore.

 

[Dann]

nelson i think this is a little to doomsdayish. i can't see it getting that bad.

if the b12 does its things then the acc leftovers are hung out like us. so buff and umass types aren't to worry about. we would then get stuck in a crapy fball conf with duke and wakes and bc. that would be ok for bball but thats not the point.

worst case:
uconn/bc/cuse/temple/duke/wake/navy/army/usf/ucf/ecu/memphis or del

 

[Carl Spackler]

nelson, I think you need to step away from the ledge, lay off the pipe, put down the bottle....whatever cliche you want to use.....and that's coming from me.

The simple fact is that in 2012, with the current configuration of the Big EAst, in the intercollegiate landscape that is moving in a radical direction away from the status quo in college football, there is nothing productive to be gained by any institution currently in, or coming into the Big east - by separation of the big east conference along basketball and football lines, and that includes Notre Dame. There's a ton to be gained - by all involved, by remaining together.

On the other hand - there's a TON to be gained by the only broadcasting company with negotiating rights for the entire fall sports season of 2012, by a fracture of the big east conference.

Who's side you on?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Because Boise and SDSU decide that they can get similar money by staying in the west, adding the best of CUSA and the MWC, and forming their own league without the remote outpost in the northeast. You can make a cross country football conference work, but basketball becomes a nightmare.

Tulane and Rice were the most insignificant part of that scenario. If that is your only complaint with it, I will assume we are in agreement.

If you don't like the outcome above, give me a realistic alternative.

Boise and San Diego State already have homes for their non-football sports. That's not an issue.

If you really think Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico etc. Has a chance of getting anywhere near the same value as UConn, Rutgers, Louisville, etc. You are insane.

Also, in the same post suggesting travel will be an issue for teams, you suggest Cincy ans Ville leave to go play teams in California - in all sports. Once again, insane.

And no - my biggest issue about your proposed academic conf. Was you suggesting Northwestern leaving the Big10 and to a lesser extent Vandy leaving the SEC.

 

[Dann]

Boise and San Diego State already have homes for their non-football sports. That's not an issue.
.

just wondering what league those sports are in?

 

[kingdobbs]

just wondering what league those sports are in?

San Diego State will be in the Big West, and Boise will return its non-football sports to the WAC (or, at least, was planning to; the WAC should still be able to maintain itself at six beyond the recent defections, but who knows).

 

[mattp]

The only way my scenario, or some approximation, does NOT happen is if for some reason the Big 12 stays at 10 or just adds FSU and Clemson and then holds tight.

since your last big prediction i can recall was 2-10 the year we went to the Fiesta Bowl, i want to thank you for helping me sleep easy