Predicted Outcome

[IthacaMatt]

As I pointed out elsewhere, the ACC schools seem to be sticking together despite the fact that several of them could make much more money in a different league. The Big East was probably going to about match the ACC, and Pitt and Syracuse bolted because...well, just because.

"Much" more? I think it's basically a $3M difference. There is 4 times that distance between the ACC and the existing Big East contract.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Boise, SDSU and the hoops schools are all more than 50% likely to bolt if Louisville leaves. The hoops schools don't need to stick around in a league with UConn and a bunch of schools the hoops schools don't want to be associated with in the first place.

I don't believe the Warchant post, btw. ALL the other Internet chatter is that Clemson can't leave the ACC fast enough and FSU is going to end up leaving too. I don't think the Big 12 will do anything until it has final answers from both Clemson and FSU. If both hold tight, then Louisville and someone else are going to the Big 12, and that "someone else" is likely coming from the Big East.

Who wants Clemson so badly ? I just don't see it. It's freaking Clemson. They are like West Virginia, only much worse, and WVU couldn't get an invite anyplace despite much public begging, until the Big 12 was looking at having its TV contract voided if it didn't get a warm body to fill the line-up.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Can't really see Boise jumping ship. The MWC just can't pay them anywhere near what the BE can. If Boise has anything to do with the rumor they are having second thoughts, it is only in an effort to try and get an all sports invite.

I agree that the the MWC is very unattractive. It comes down to whether Boise is willing to form a new conference or not. They need Houston, SDSU and SMU to come with them to pull it off.

 

[metsfan2323]

They need Houston, SDSU and SMU to come with them to pull it off.

I have been pondering your idea about Memphis, Houston and SMU joining the MWC. I can't see it. Even if Boise, SDSU and Louisville leave, the Big East is still one of the best basketball conferences out there. Each of these schools want to build up their basketball programs and it will be easier to do so in the Big East than the MWC.

The MWC offers mediocre football and lousy basketball
The Big East offers mediocre football and great basketball.

Now if Rutgers and UCONN were to also leave, maybe things change, but at that point we won't care. Just my opinion.

Tell Memphis hoop fans and Larry Brown that Memphis and SMU are moving to the MWC. It won't go over very well.

This can be the new 20 team Big East

UCONN
Rutgers
UMASS
Temple
East Carolina
UCF
USF
SMU
Memphis
Houston
Cincy
Navy
St johns
Nova
Georgetown
Marquette
Notre Dame
DePaul
Providence
Seton Hall

 

[Dann]

i can't argue with that mets, its interesting if sdsu/bsu don't come what will happen. i would rather have army/smiss/uab/temple over umass as #12. i don't think right now is the time for umass to jump. maybe 10 years from now they could be interesting if they can pull off what uconn has done and bc continues to fall. but anyway, i guess no matter what happens, a league with uconn/memphis/cincy/temple from a bball look can still be top 6 in the country and fball is what it is.

with the 12 team fball league you could see something like this for fball

north:
zone 1-uconn/ruty
zone 2-navy/ecu
zone 3-cincy/temple

south:
zone 1-usf/ucf
zone 2-uh/smu
zone 3-memphis/2nd southern school

so your yearly schedule would be play your division plus 1 team rom each zone in the other for 8 games a year. so uconn would play its north division h/a rotate by year plus
year 1- @usf/uh/@memphis
year 2- ucf/@smu/2nd southern school
year 3- usf/@uh/memphis
year 4- @ucf/smu/@ southern school
so each year each team would have 4h and 4a. then you can find your 4 ooc games from there.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn's upside may be that we beg our way into the D1 Patriot League. I think the ACC is getting ripped to shreds this summer.

 

[upstater]

The football schools are asking the hoops schools to take one for the team by letting detritus like SMU and UCF on board, and now the whole reason to do so, to save football, may be becoming a moot point with Boise gone. Throw Louisville's departure into the mix, and the Big East is circling the drain. The hoops schools will abandon this ship soon enough. Game. Set. Match. ESPN has won.

I doubt this. The bball schools can go their own way whenever UConn and Louisville leave. This is not a permanent partnership between them and Boise. As well, Boise and the like would probably want to leave themselves if the old BE fball schools leave.

 

[RS9999X]

Louisville wants out. The catholics schools are unhappy. But I'm not yet convinced they would actually bolt if Louisville leaves and UConn stays. Who has any sway among that group? V illanova and Georgetown.

St John's, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette are considered NCAA tourney kinds of schools in good markets. They aren't stupid. If you saw the recent A-10 contract these teams need each other and a good affiliation,

The worst case is Louisville and UConn leaving. That leaves the 8 Catholics looking at 8 BE football schools: Rutgers, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU, Cincy, Memphis and Temple. Still a decent basketball league with SMU and Houston looking interesting.

Anyway you cut it Cincy, Memphis, Temple, St John's, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette is good basketball.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think we are completely and utterly screwed. UConn is going to end up in an all sports league with the following:

UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Rutgers
Temple
Delaware
East Carolina
UCF
USF


Basketball schools split, league comes unraveled quickly. Boise and SDSU, with no home for non-football sports, but with an opening to be the #5 league after the ACC has become the D1 Patriot League, join with Houston, SMU and Memphis, raid the MWC and CUSA again. Pick your 5-7 teams (USM, Tulsa, New Mexico, CSU, Nevada, whoever). Get a decent deal with NBC. Don't see much value traveling all the way to the east coast, so they don't invite the Florida or northeast schools.

UConn needs to cut costs, no opportunity for a major conference invite, wants regional conference with manageable travel. 50/50 that UCF and USF reach the same conclusion, try to join CUSA after USM and Tulsa or whoever join the Boise conference. In that case, replace UCF and USF with two CAA upgrades (UNH, James Madison).

Between UConn, Temple and UMass, the league is a 2 bid league to the NCAA most years, about the 8th or 9th best hoops league after the Big 4, nACC, Boise Conference, Catholic League and A10, and MVC, and maybe the 7th best football league after the Big 4, nACC and Boise Conference.

On the plus side, we can drive to a lot of the away games.

THAT is our future.

BegHarder.

It makes me ill that something that looks like this actually may be the outcome, swapping Rutgers for Tulane.

Houston, SMU, SDSU and Boise fans are in revolt over Tulane and ECU. To the MWC and CUSA schools that left those leagues, it sure looks like the Big East is taking the worst CUSA programs and rebuilding the league those schools they wanted to leave. The new schools just bailing on the whole mess, adding the top MWC schools, and starting their own league is not out of the question. I think they will hang around long enough to see the TV deal.

By the way, I am fairly confident that a GOR will be required by NBC.