Predicted Outcome

[Dann]

San Diego State will be in the Big West, and Boise will return its non-football sports to the WAC (or, at least, was planning to; the WAC should still be able to maintain itself at six beyond the recent defections, but who knows).

so now that the wac is dead im sure that effects some stuff. i bet those schools don't like that setup tho. sdsu is trying to play big boy bball and they are rising quick. also bsu bball has improved a ton the last 2 years and i'm sure there trying to be a player in bball also. if the nnbe stays together and has a west division, they should just play all sports eventually with. i could see a sdsu/bsu/byu//smu/uh/fres/unlv west division all sports in the nbe one day..

 

[ConnHuskBask]

just wondering what league those sports are in?

I believe Boise and SDSU have agreements in place to play in the WAC and Big West. I believe the Big Sky is an option for Boise if the Wac follds.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I believe Boise and SDSU have agreements in place to play in the WAC and Big West. I believe the Big Sky is an option for Boise if the Wac follds.

That is essentially writing both basketball programs off, in addition to all the other sports. They were willing to do that if the Big East hangs together in its current form, but another departure, like Louisville, together with a split blowing up any TV deal, would make them think twice. In fact, if you look at writers from the region, both schools are very much on the fence right now.

So let's say Louisville leaves, which triggers a basketball exodus. Boise and SDSU leave, form a 12 team league:

West: SDSU, Boise, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, CSU

East: New Mexico, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Southern Miss

that is a big league with several high quality football and basketball programs in big cities and manageable travel. The eastern teams would make one California trip every 2 years for hoops.

And Armageddon for UConn. Tell me which two schools get booted to add a trip to Storrs or Piscataway, especially when UConn and Rutgers are still BeggingHarder?

 

[zls44]

West: SDSU, Boise, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, CSU

East: New Mexico, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Southern Miss

By my count, that is 4 teams that will have played together in a conference for a minimum of 5 years. As I understand it, you need 6 to get an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. And no, they would not simply give the WAC bid to the new conference. Great West would take them to court.

Plus, blowing up any conference forfeits it's NCAA credits.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

By my count, that is 4 teams that will have played together in a conference for a minimum of 5 years. As I understand it, you need 6 to get an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. And no, they would not simply give the WAC bid to the new conference. Great West would take them to court.

Plus, blowing up any conference forfeits it's NCAA credits.

The NCAA credits ship has sailed. Boise and SDSU are basically giving up on going to the NCAA tourney as an at-large as is. This is a far better scenario. Even without an autobid, that league would average 3-4 bids a year. The autobid only matters if the league sucks.

 

[metsfan2323]

I think we are completely and utterly screwed. UConn is going to end up in an all sports league with the following:

UConn
UMass
Buffalo
Rutgers
Temple
Delaware
East Carolina
UCF
USF


.

Where are Cincy and Louisville?
SMU / Houston / Memphis would prefer west over east even when east baskeball is better and teams are closer?
Ohio would be invited if Cincy were gone.
Navy?

This is a step up for you. Yesterday you had us playing UNH.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Where are Cincy and Louisville?
SMU / Houston / Memphis would prefer west over east even when east baskeball is better and teams are closer?
Ohio would be invited if Cincy were gone.
Navy?

This is a step up for you. Yesterday you had us playing UNH.

Memphis, USM, Houston, SMU, Cincinnati and New Mexico is a relatively tight division by non- eastern standards. The corollary is also true about travel. Without a Big East basketball or football league, do SMU and Houston really justify the travel for UConn and Rutgers?

The Boise League, with SDSU, NM, UNLV and Memphis, would be a better basketball league than UConn (post Calhoun), Temple and whoever.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Nelson, you've gone off the deep end.

I don't even know where to begin, but you've lost any grasp of reality.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, you've gone off the deep end.

I don't even know where to begin, but you've lost any grasp of reality.

Oh. So we are going to the Big 10? Or ACC? Boise is staying if the league gets raided again? I think you are arguing that Houston or SMU would stay in a league with teams 1500 miles away, and I am saying they wouldn't. That is the fundamental difference between our positions.

 

[Dann]

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

I think we should try panicking. That always seems to work pretty well.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Oh. So we are going to the Big 10? Or ACC? Boise is staying if the league gets raided again? I think you are arguing that Houston or SMU would stay in a league with teams 1500 miles away, and I am saying they wouldn't. That is the fundamental difference between our positions.

Your proposed conference is below. You realize teams in their are actually further away than UConn, Rutgers and Temple?

You're arguing that Houston and SMU are going to willingly align themselves in an all sports conference with Fresno State and Nevada over UConn and Rutgers? UConn and Rutgers are closer to Houston than those schools for christ sake, so don't give me the travel BS.

"West: SDSU, Boise, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, CSU

East: New Mexico, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Southern Miss"

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your proposed conference is below. You realize teams in their are actually further away than UConn, Rutgers and Temple?

You're arguing that Houston and SMU are going to willingly align themselves in an all sports conference with Fresno State and Nevada over UConn and Rutgers? UConn and Rutgers are closer to Houston than those schools for christ sake, so don't give me the travel BS.

"West: SDSU, Boise, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, CSU

East: New Mexico, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Southern Miss"

First of all, San Diego is closer to Dallas than UConn, and Boise and Reno are about the same distance. Secondly, New Mexico, Memphis, Cincinnati and Southern Miss are not further than UConn, and that western conference is happening with them or without them, and that western league has a few teams that have finished the year ranked very highly in recent years, while UConn and Rutgers are UConn and Rutgers. Either way, do SMU and Houston really make that much of a difference?

If Boise forms a western league without UConn and Rutgers, we are screwed. It will become the de facto 6th league. The playoff is going to drive anyone outside the Big 4 to really need a "bell cow". Boise is that bell cow. UConn and Rutgers are not bell cows.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

First of all, San Diego is closer to Dallas than UConn, and Boise and Reno are about the same distance. Secondly, New Mexico, Memphis, Cincinnati and Southern Miss are not further than UConn, and that western conference is happening with them or without them, and that western league has a few teams that have finished the year ranked very highly in recent years, while UConn and Rutgers are UConn and Rutgers. Either way, do SMU and Houston really make that much of a difference?

If Boise forms a western league without UConn and Rutgers, we are screwed. It will become the de facto 6th league. The playoff is going to drive anyone outside the Big 4 to really need a "bell cow". Boise is that bell cow. UConn and Rutgers are not bell cows.

Rutgers and UConn are easily the most valuable properties along with Boise State in this potential scenario.

No TV executive is going to sign a deal with that conference with Rutgers and UConn standing on the sideline.

 

[mavblues]

 

[Sean]

Your selected user name is so, so appropriate.

 

[zls44]

Boise and SDSU are basically giving up on going to the NCAA tourney as an at-large as is.

SPIT TAKE

San Diego State? Really? They don't want to go as an at-large?

 

[willie99]

Kevin macNamarra says Villanova, Georgetown and Notre Dame want no part of a breakup, so how does your new basketball league look with Marquette as the bell cow?

that oughta bring in the big bucks, eh?

 

[willie99]

what kind of mind actually thinks of this stuff?

does this guy kick puppies and run to beat 90 year old ladies to the last seat on the train?

I'm thinking yes

 

[willie99]

now that made me laugh

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My point is that UConn's best realistic outcome, by far, is that the current Big East holds together, and signs a deal with NBC, which will probably require also signing a GoR. Otherwise, we get the New Yankee Conference, because things will really come apart quickly.

Unfortunately, I put the odds of the Big East holding together at less than 50/50. If Notre Dame, Louisville or the hoops schools leave, that will cause Boise and SDSU to leave, and then the conference ship drops straight to the bottom of the ocean pretty fast.

If Boise decides they don't want to be in a league with two schools 2000 miles away like UConn and Rutgers, and we get into a tug of war for teams, Boise is going to kick our ass. A) They are Boise and will have shots at a National Championship in the new playoff system, B) a league will coalesce around Boise almost immediately, which will put a big tug on Houston and SMU to join, and C) Houston, Memphis and SMU know that UConn and Rutgers are still moderately attractive as expansion candidates and will jump at the first chance they get, whereas the new Boise league will be stable.

I think UConn and Rutgers are very attractive to a conference, particularly as a package deal. Unfortunately, no one that matters at the Big 10, ACC, Big 12 or SEC seems to agree with me.

 

[mattp]

do you realize you just said a league will coalesce around Boise? think about that for a minute. if it doesn't sound ridiculous i'd like to buy some of your drugs

 

[metsfan2323]

My point is that UConn's best realistic outcome, by far, is that the current Big East holds together, and signs a deal with NBC, which will probably require also signing a GoR. Otherwise, we get the New Yankee Conference, because things will really come apart quickly.

Unfortunately, I put the odds of the Big East holding together at less than 50/50. If Notre Dame, Louisville or the hoops schools leave, that will cause Boise and SDSU to leave, and then the conference ship drops straight to the bottom of the ocean pretty fast.

If Boise decides they don't want to be in a league with two schools 2000 miles away like UConn and Rutgers, and we get into a tug of war for teams, Boise is going to kick our ass. A) They are Boise and will have shots at a National Championship in the new playoff system, B) a league will coalesce around Boise almost immediately, which will put a big tug on Houston and SMU to join, and C) Houston, Memphis and SMU know that UConn and Rutgers are still moderately attractive as expansion candidates and will jump at the first chance they get, whereas the new Boise league will be stable.

I think UConn and Rutgers are very attractive to a conference, particularly as a package deal. Unfortunately, no one that matters at the Big 10, ACC, Big 12 or SEC seems to agree with me.

I do think it would be wise for Susan to try and lead a movement that would somehow hold everyone together. If something could be signed that makes it painful to leave. The unknown seems much more dangerous to our program than the new Big East does. Unless she has something rock solid up her sleave.

 

[junglehusky]

So if we take the polar opposite of the scenario Nelson postulated, that would probably be UConn winding up the Big Ten happily ever after. I think it's a pretty safe bet the eventual outcome will be somewhere in between the best possible scenario and the worst possible scenario.

Up until the FSU/B12 rumors became more widespread (notice I didn't say credible), nelson's prediction was that that the NNBE with Boise and the gang would stick together and get its payday. At the time I think where I disagreed with him was whether it was in UConn's best interest to pursue other options. Now that some of the smaller pieces are moving (WAC dissolving, CUSA replacing defections) and there are blogger / messageboard rumors/speculation of further B12 raids and Boise second thoughts, Nelson thinks we're boned. I'm not going to say that's impossible, it is one possibility but I would bet on it being a remote one. If anything the NNBE payday scenario with GOR is as likely a scenario as any other, especially if you believe the rumor that Louisville now farther down the B12 list of candidates. I guess the one thing that would enable the doomsday scenario would be if the western teams thought they could band together and get as big of a payday as they would with the NNBE contract, I haven't seen anything that would support that yet.

 

[junglehusky]

So let's say the NNBE does dissolve. Does Nelson think that Swofford, Delaney and Bowlsby all say " UConn, we won't even bother calling them". Who knows, maybe DeFillipo has pictures of Swofford with Colombian hookers in in his safe or whatever - but you think those guys aren't even going to consider UConn? Nothing's guaranteed, maybe we don't get marriage proposals right off the bat but you gotta think we at least get taken out for a nice dinner at an expensive restaurant and some flowers.