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Playoff Race

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A lot will ride on Thanksgiving weekend when there are 4 ACC/SEC matchups. If the SEC wins 3 of them, I think the boost in the computer rankings and over prestige will carry a 1 loss Miss State team to a playoff berth. If the SEC wins 1, which I think is a lot more likely, Miss. State is finished as a candidate for the playoffs.
 
whaler11 said:
Fairly safe to toss the 2 loss teams out at least for now.
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Georgia is the one 2-loss team with an outside shot.
If play in, and win the SEC championship, they might be the SEC representative. I mean, it'd be tough to take Bama after they just lost, and hard to take Miss St b/c Bama played in the championship game and Miss St didnt.

Plus committee has said that being conference champion matters.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
A lot will ride on Thanksgiving weekend when there are 4 ACC/SEC matchups. If the SEC wins 3 of them, I think the boost in the computer rankings and over prestige will carry a 1 loss Miss State team to a playoff berth. If the SEC wins 1, which I think is a lot more likely, Miss. State is finished as a candidate for the playoffs.
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The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.
 
vowelguy said:
Georgia is the one 2-loss team with an outside shot.
If play in, and win the SEC championship, they might be the SEC representative. I mean, it'd be tough to take Bama after they just lost, and hard to take Miss St b/c Bama played in the championship game and Miss St didnt.

Plus committee has said that being conference champion matters.
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Ole Miss is the team with the chance. Beat Miss State and Auburn beat Bama, they go to SEC championship game. Win it and I beat they are in.
 
vowelguy said:
The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.
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Clemson has no right being in the rankings... but Tech might beat FSU.
 
Ole Miss does have the best shot of the two loss teams.

I think people are missing that Georgia needs Missouri to lose....
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
A lot will ride on Thanksgiving weekend when there are 4 ACC/SEC matchups. If the SEC wins 3 of them, I think the boost in the computer rankings and over prestige will carry a 1 loss Miss State team to a playoff berth. If the SEC wins 1, which I think is a lot more likely, Miss. State is finished as a candidate for the playoffs.
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Clemson is pretty bad. I can see the ACC getting 2... 3 is a stretch.
 
Jerry1714 said:
Ole Miss is the team with the chance. Beat Miss State and Auburn beat Bama, they go to SEC championship game. Win it and I beat they are in.
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True. Confirms that not all 2 loss teams are out, yet.
 
vowelguy said:
The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.
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When is it not weak?

Uga is 12-1 versus Gtech since 2000.
South Carolina has won the last 5 against Clemson, this year will be 6 probably. None were close.
Even Florida won 7 of the last 10 against FSU.

The SEC has been dominating.
 
Ohio State is helped by Wisconsin's resurgence. That is now a pretty good win where before it didn't look like the Big 10 championship game would give much of a boost.
 
whaler11 said:
Ole Miss does have the best shot of the two loss teams.

I think people are missing that Georgia needs Missouri to lose....
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I did say "IF Georgia plays in the SEC CG..."
 
vowelguy said:
True. Confirms that not all 2 loss teams are out, yet.
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I was throwing them out for the sake of the conversation not saying they were all dead in the water.
 
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whaler11 said:
Clemson is pretty bad. I can see the ACC getting 2... 3 is a stretch.
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Scoreboard. And Arkansas lost to Missouri for a little flavor. While the committee does not disclose their own computer rankings, it is safe to assume that he SEC is finished as the #1 conference in any computer ranking, and will be closer to 3 than to 1 unless Florida unexpectedly pulls off the upset.

I think it will be hard for the SEC to argue it is deserves to get a Mississippi State team into the playoffs over TCU when Mississippi State didn't play anyone in their non-conference, and there is not a lot of objective evidence that the SEC is a better league than any other.
 
While I don't usually buy into conspiracy theories about referees.

If there was ever a game a conference needed a team to win it's Alabama over Auburn tonight.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
ACC 4, SEC 0
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Yes that surprised me.

But let's see ...
- #3 Fla St (top ACC) barely beats unranked Florida (8th best SEC) ,
- #23 Louisville barely beats a not-even-bowl-eligible Kentucky,
- the 2nd-best ACC team GaTech gets a miracle FG to top the 4th-or-5th best SEC team in Georgia,
- the 3rd-best ACC team beats the 11th-best SEC team.

Certainly better than I expected, but not exactly evidence of greatness.
 
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vowelguy said:
Yes that surprised me.

But let's see ...
- #3 Fla St (top ACC) barely beats unranked Florida (8th best SEC) ,
- #23 Louisville barely beats a not-even-bowl-eligible Kentucky,
- the 2nd-best ACC team GaTech gets a miracle FG to top the 4th-or-5th best SEC team in Georgia,
- the 3rd-best ACC team beats the 11th-best SEC team.

Certainly better than I expected, but not exactly evidence of greatness.
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By no means do I think the ACC is great. I think today's results told us a lot more about the SEC than they told us about the ACC
 
nelsonmuntz said:
By no means do I think the ACC is great. I think today's results told us a lot more about the SEC than they told us about the ACC
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Yeah it told us that the bottom half of the SEC is not quite as good as the top quarter of the ACC.
 
The SEC has 1 really high quality OOC win, Auburn over Kansas State, and 2 other good OOC wins in LSU over Wisconsin and Georgia over Clemson. The SEC has a losing record against other majors, and its East champ lost to Indiana. This league is overhyped.
 
I don't know how anyone can actually watch these games and not see that the SEC passes the eye test. It is far and away the best conference.

I still don't understand how TCU is ahead of Baylor. The pundits are ripping their 2 point win yesterday while seemingly ignoring TCU's games against Kansas and WVU. And oh by the way they actually played each other and Baylor won. Somehow in this alternate universe that doesn't matter.
 
if ohio st doesn't win the 10 champ, i would have no problem with both tcu and oregon in the play off
 
Jimmy Serrano said:
I don't know how anyone can actually watch these games and not see that the SEC passes the eye test. It is far and away the best conference.

I still don't understand how TCU is ahead of Baylor. The pundits are ripping their 2 point win yesterday while seemingly ignoring TCU's games against Kansas and WVU. And oh by the way they actually played each other and Baylor won. Somehow in this alternate universe that doesn't matter.
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TCU lost a close one at Baylor
Baylor lost by 2 touchdowns at West Virginia

Who has the better loss?
 
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If everyone wins out: Bama, Oregon, FSU, OSU - Baylor, TCU next
If Bama loses: Oregon, FSU, OSU, BAY - TCU next
If Ore/FSU lose: Bama, Ore/FSU, OSU, BAY - TCU next
If OSU loses: Bama, Oregon, FSU, BAY - TCU next
If Baylor loses TCU takes their spot in all of the above scenarios.
If two of Bama, FSU, Oregon, OSU lose: Remaining two plus BAY, TCU - Arizona, Missouri.

That should about cover it. The committee will reward OSU for a potential win over Wisc. this week. If they lose, that takes care of everything and the B12 moves up.
 
Ohio st is not guaranteed in. They don't need to just win ; their new QB must play well.
 
vowelguy said:
Yeah it told us that the bottom half of the SEC is not quite as good as the top quarter of the ACC.
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Actually since all four ACC wins came over teams from the SEC East it just confirms how far down that division is at the moment.
 
tOSU lost their QB, which will knock them down.

I think TCU is a little ahead of Baylor because of better loss and win over Minnesota.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
tOSU lost their QB, which will knock them down. I think TCU is a little ahead of Baylor because of better loss and win over Minnesota.
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Only in a crazy world does a team win with its 3rd QB and get penalized for it.
 
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