Playoff Race

[Dooley]

I agree that 1-loss Baylor is better than undefeated FSU. I just don't think the committee will have the ballz to leave out an undefeated defending champion, regardless of how pedestrian they have looked against a very mediocre schedule. The ACC Championship Game will likely give them Duke again and while that in itself isn't anywhere as nearly as impressive as any other championship game matchup, it should be enough to keep their place somewhere in the top 4...no matter how much I don't like it.

Ironically, if the B12 had a Championship Game (back to this again), that might have really helped Baylor or TCU leapfrog an undefeated FSU team. Baylor finishes with only 1 game that would move the needle in their direction (last game at home vs Kansas State). Their next 2 weeks aren't going to do them any favors: OSU and Texas Tech. For that matter, TCU also doesn't have any needle moving games left on its schedule (at Texas and home vs Iowa State). But if either of those teams had 1 more game against a Top 20 type of opponent in a CCG, it might have helped their cause. The round robin format will probably crush the B12's chances at getting a playoff participant this year.

 

[Jerry1714]

FSU will get in if they win out but they're not in my top 4. Maybe the Gators play hard for Muschamp on his way out.

1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. Miss St.
4. Baylor

Followed by TCU, FSU and OSU. Nobody else in contention.

If the right chips fall into place Ole Miss has a chance still.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

If the right chips fall into place Ole Miss has a chance still.

I assume you mean Auburn beating Bama and Ole Miss winning the Egg Bowl and the SEC championship game coupled with another 1 loss team going down. I think there is less than a 1% chance of all those things coming together.

 

[Jerry1714]

I assume you mean Auburn beating Bama and Ole Miss winning the Egg Bowl and the SEC championship game coupled with another 1 loss team going down. I think there is less than a 1% chance of all those things coming together.

Correct.

Ole Miss beating Miss St is not a reach, Auburn beating Bama at this point probably is, but as we saw last year, anything can happen.

Wisky beating OSU or UCLA beating Oregon is certainly not out of the question.

 

[SubbaBub]

Zero chance a non divisional SEC champ (MSU) trumps a one loss Pac12 and B12 champ if Bama and FSU.

The 4 team playoff would have the lifespan of a fruit fly if they did.

May not even trump OSU if it's just Bama or FSU.

today it's Bama, Oregon, FSU, Baylor/TCU.

Baylor gets the spot if they both win out. Then it's Miss St/OSU. OSU will need a big performance in the CCG if they want to lock themselves in as 1st alternate should FSU or Oregon stumble.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A lot will ride on Thanksgiving weekend when there are 4 ACC/SEC matchups. If the SEC wins 3 of them, I think the boost in the computer rankings and over prestige will carry a 1 loss Miss State team to a playoff berth. If the SEC wins 1, which I think is a lot more likely, Miss. State is finished as a candidate for the playoffs.

 

[Vowelguy]

Fairly safe to toss the 2 loss teams out at least for now.

Georgia is the one 2-loss team with an outside shot.
If play in, and win the SEC championship, they might be the SEC representative. I mean, it'd be tough to take Bama after they just lost, and hard to take Miss St b/c Bama played in the championship game and Miss St didnt.

Plus committee has said that being conference champion matters.

 

[Vowelguy]

A lot will ride on Thanksgiving weekend when there are 4 ACC/SEC matchups. If the SEC wins 3 of them, I think the boost in the computer rankings and over prestige will carry a 1 loss Miss State team to a playoff berth. If the SEC wins 1, which I think is a lot more likely, Miss. State is finished as a candidate for the playoffs.

The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.

 

[Jerry1714]

Georgia is the one 2-loss team with an outside shot.
If play in, and win the SEC championship, they might be the SEC representative. I mean, it'd be tough to take Bama after they just lost, and hard to take Miss St b/c Bama played in the championship game and Miss St didnt.

Plus committee has said that being conference champion matters.

Ole Miss is the team with the chance. Beat Miss State and Auburn beat Bama, they go to SEC championship game. Win it and I beat they are in.

 

[whaler11]

The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.

Clemson has no right being in the rankings... but Tech might beat FSU.

 

[whaler11]

Ole Miss does have the best shot of the two loss teams.

I think people are missing that Georgia needs Missouri to lose....

 

[whaler11]

A lot will ride on Thanksgiving weekend when there are 4 ACC/SEC matchups. If the SEC wins 3 of them, I think the boost in the computer rankings and over prestige will carry a 1 loss Miss State team to a playoff berth. If the SEC wins 1, which I think is a lot more likely, Miss. State is finished as a candidate for the playoffs.

Clemson is pretty bad. I can see the ACC getting 2... 3 is a stretch.

 

[Vowelguy]

Ole Miss is the team with the chance. Beat Miss State and Auburn beat Bama, they go to SEC championship game. Win it and I beat they are in.

True. Confirms that not all 2 loss teams are out, yet.

 

[Jerry1714]

The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.

When is it not weak?

Uga is 12-1 versus Gtech since 2000.
South Carolina has won the last 5 against Clemson, this year will be 6 probably. None were close.
Even Florida won 7 of the last 10 against FSU.

The SEC has been dominating.

 

[whaler11]

Ohio State is helped by Wisconsin's resurgence. That is now a pretty good win where before it didn't look like the Big 10 championship game would give much of a boost.

 

[Vowelguy]

Ole Miss does have the best shot of the two loss teams.

I think people are missing that Georgia needs Missouri to lose....

I did say "IF Georgia plays in the SEC CG..."

 

[whaler11]

True. Confirms that not all 2 loss teams are out, yet.

I was throwing them out for the sake of the conversation not saying they were all dead in the water.

 

[whaler11]

I did say "IF Georgia plays in the SEC CG..."

I didn't directly quote you for that reason. I was talking in general.

 

[Vowelguy]

When is it not weak?

Ha. True. But they usually manage 2 top 20 teams. They don't even have that this year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Clemson is pretty bad. I can see the ACC getting 2... 3 is a stretch.

Scoreboard. And Arkansas lost to Missouri for a little flavor. While the committee does not disclose their own computer rankings, it is safe to assume that he SEC is finished as the #1 conference in any computer ranking, and will be closer to 3 than to 1 unless Florida unexpectedly pulls off the upset.

I think it will be hard for the SEC to argue it is deserves to get a Mississippi State team into the playoffs over TCU when Mississippi State didn't play anyone in their non-conference, and there is not a lot of objective evidence that the SEC is a better league than any other.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC is deceptively weak this year. GA beats Tech easily. Clemson is overrated.

ACC 4, SEC 0

 

[whaler11]

While I don't usually buy into conspiracy theories about referees.

If there was ever a game a conference needed a team to win it's Alabama over Auburn tonight.

 

[Vowelguy]

ACC 4, SEC 0

Yes that surprised me.

But let's see ...
- #3 Fla St (top ACC) barely beats unranked Florida (8th best SEC) ,
- #23 Louisville barely beats a not-even-bowl-eligible Kentucky,
- the 2nd-best ACC team GaTech gets a miracle FG to top the 4th-or-5th best SEC team in Georgia,
- the 3rd-best ACC team beats the 11th-best SEC team.

Certainly better than I expected, but not exactly evidence of greatness.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes that surprised me.

But let's see ...
- #3 Fla St (top ACC) barely beats unranked Florida (8th best SEC) ,
- #23 Louisville barely beats a not-even-bowl-eligible Kentucky,
- the 2nd-best ACC team GaTech gets a miracle FG to top the 4th-or-5th best SEC team in Georgia,
- the 3rd-best ACC team beats the 11th-best SEC team.

Certainly better than I expected, but not exactly evidence of greatness.

By no means do I think the ACC is great. I think today's results told us a lot more about the SEC than they told us about the ACC

 

[Vowelguy]

By no means do I think the ACC is great. I think today's results told us a lot more about the SEC than they told us about the ACC

Yeah it told us that the bottom half of the SEC is not quite as good as the top quarter of the ACC.