Playoff Race

[whaler11]

Fairly safe to toss the 2 loss teams out at least for now.

12 teams with 0 or 1 loss.

Toss out Duke, Colorado State and Marshall. Too far behind in poll.

Leaves 9 real candidates:

5 to me are locks if they win out they are in:
Miss St, Alabama, FSU, Oregon, TCU

Arizona State if they win out I'd say they are going to get in.

Ohio State and Nebraska are in trouble. Nebraska has almost no shot of being 12-1 anyway but even if they pulled it off they look screwed.

Baylor is at least 95% out unless TCU loses.

If you are a fan of anyone besides Florida State - FSU @ Miami might be your last shot at salvation. Unless someone finally just puts Winston in jail.

Your max number of p5 1 loss teams or better is 8by my calc:
Miss St, Alabama, Baylor, TCU, FSU, Duke, Pac12, Big 10.

I think if you get 7 teams with one loss or better you get: Bama, Miss St, Pac 12 winner, TCU.

 

[Jerry1714]

With Baylor being the conference champ if both them and TCU win out I think their percentage is better then 95%. Still think TCU has the edge, but it would not shock me if TCU got leap frogged based on the head to head result.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I'd put ASU in the lock column because they'd have to go through Oregon in the Pac12 title game. But man their one loss they got drilled.

To me it's gonna be interesting if Bama runs the table to see if the committee will keep a 1 loss Miss State team out of the playoff. The Big 12 winner may be the one left out in that situation.

I'm warming up to the idea of keeping it at 4. The whole month of November is filled with playoff games. Bama/Miss St this coming weekend. ASU/ND, MSU/OSU, KSU/TCU. It's added so many more meaningful games to the regular season.

 

[Drew]

Wouldn't quite count the Skers out yet. Beat Miami in Lincoln and Miami has been playing extremely well lately, as evidenced by the narrow line in their game vs FSU this weekend. If Nebraska wins out their resume is as follows:

Quality Wins:

Miami (Fl)
@ Wisconsin
Minnesota (fringe top 25 especially if they beat Ohio State this weekend)
Ohio State (B1G Championship)

Lone loss: @Mich St by 5

would've loved it if LSU could've knocked off Bama Saturday. Still don't think Bama gets in and I don't think that they're all that great. Beating Auburn and Miss State would to me be a stretch at this point for that ball club. I'm a huge SEC football fan but if you actually watch the product on the field

The Baylor/TCU debate is interesting too. Baylor beat TCU but everyone is touting that TCU has a better resume than Baylor. Could we see both of them sneak into the playoff if they both finish 11-1?

Arizona St/Oregon winner is in if they have 1 loss when it's all said and done
Miss State looks like they're most likely heading into the playoff
Florida State is in for now but if they lose to Miami or Duke things could change
Then this spot is any of the following teams: TCU/Baylor/Bama/Ohio State/Nebraska/Duke

 

[whaler11]

Nebraska is just going to need help. If the teams ahead of them win out they aren't going to leapfrog enough to get to the top 4.

They are like 1 in 20 to win their last 4 games anyway.

 

[whaler11]

With Baylor being the conference champ if both them and TCU win out I think their percentage is better then 95%. Still think TCU has the edge, but it would not shock me if TCU got leap frogged based on the head to head result.

I don't diasagree that the ranking is a bit puzzling right now, but I don't see where Baylor can do enough to change their mind.

I can't see them both getting in unless you see absolute mayhem. You'd need the Pac 12 and Big 10 schools all to have 2 losses just to start building a scenario.

 

[SubbaBub]

Sec champ
P12 champ
B12 champ
FSU if undefeated.

Next up is 12-1 OSU

Easy year for the committee.

 

[Jerry1714]

I don't diasagree that the ranking is a bit puzzling right now, but I don't see where Baylor can do enough to change their mind.

I can't see them both getting in unless you see absolute mayhem. You'd need the Pac 12 and Big 10 schools all to have 2 losses just to start building a scenario.

I think Baylor comes in at 7 this week, and if they blow out K State and OK State, I think they are right there in the discussion. Since two teams above them will have to lose at least once (Bama/Miss St and ASU/Oregon)

For what it is worth, Jerry Palm has them in at #4 in his projections (they are based on what he thinks happens at the end of the year)

 

[whaler11]

I think Baylor comes in at 7 this week, and if they blow out K State and OK State, I think they are right there in the discussion. Since two teams above them will have to lose at least once (Bama/Miss St and ASU/Oregon)

For what it is worth, Jerry Palm has them in at #4 in his projections (they are based on what he thinks happens at the end of the year)

He has them ahead of TCU?

Just seems to me if the head to head mattered it would already be reflected. Instead they were 6 spots behind at one point.

 

[Jerry1714]

He has them ahead of TCU?

Just seems to me if the head to head mattered it would already be reflected. Instead they were 6 spots behind at one point.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

 

[whaler11]

Oklahoma State has lost their last three 124-33. Not sure why anyone would value a win over them at this point?

 

[Srqhusky]

I would think a Big 12 team would have to be real dominant to get in not having to survive a CCG. I can only magine the melee surrounding such an ordeal

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If Alabama beats Mississippi State and both win out, then I think Tcu gets in by a hair, but it would be close. Ohio State and their loss to vtech needs a lot of help. Oregon or ASU get in if they win out.

The beginning poll ranking does not matter, but I think Duke's schedule is too light anyway.

It gets messy is Mississippi State loses twice and Bama loses again.

 

[whaler11]

It gets messy is Mississippi State loses twice and Bama loses again.

That would be the perfect Boneyard fade. Baylor and TCU in the playoffs would make for high comedy.

Seriously at some point people have to realize the lack of a CCG is not an issue for the Big 12. It might be an issue for a team in a given year but it's not going to hold the conference back.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Unlike in college basketball, most of college football does not have "committee ready" schedules, so the committee will be very subjective in the first couple of years. In basketball, teams play enough quality non-conference opponents that, together with their conference schedules, makes the selection committees job pretty easy. Whether it is Jerry Palm, Joe Lunardi or nelsonmuntz, no one who is bothering to do a mock selection gets more than 1 or 2 wrong out of 36 at-large bids. In football, top schools like Baylor and Mississippi State didn't play anyone in the non-conference, so the committee does not have much to work with in evaluating different teams.

The conferences have indicated that they believe that the committee will look at overall conference non-conference performance when assessing which conference records are the most impressive for the top teams in each conference, as evidenced by the Big 10's decision to no longer play FCS teams and the SEC's requirement that going forward every SEC team will have at least one OOC game against a P5.

Why does that matter now? Because the SEC still has 4 major non-conference games, and the SEC is definitely losing 2 of them and could lose all 4. Louisville is beating Kentucky and FSU is beating Florida. South Carolina has a shot at Clemson, albeit not a good one, and Georgia will be favored against Georgia Tech but won't be an overwhelming favorite. If the SEC goes 1-3 or 0-4 in those games, the league's overall record against the P5 will drop to 6-5 or 5-6. Since Mississippi State will not have a marquee OOC win, if they lose to Alabama, their chances of an at-large drop significantly at year end even if they beat Ole Miss.

The SEC West is now basing their dominance on 3 wins: LSU over Wisconsin, Auburn over Kansas State, and Alabama over WVU, and the WVU win is looking more and more "meh". Auburn vs. Georgia this weekend is basically the last major non-division game the SEC West plays. And the last thing the SEC wants is a Missouri team that lost to Indiana playing in the SEC Title game, and they control their own destiny. These teams aren't being picked by a popularity contest anymore. They have to win it on the field, and Alabama and Mississippi State's resumes are just OK.

I think that if Nebraska wins out, they will have a much better Playoff resume than Ohio State will.

Baylor and TCU can both make it if they win out, with a little help.

Ironically, the league that may turn out to be the strongest from top to bottom, the Pac 12, has almost no chance of getting 2 teams in the Playoff.

 

[Srqhusky]

That would be the perfect Boneyard fade. Baylor and TCU in the playoffs would make for high comedy.

Seriously at some point people have to realize the lack of a CCG is not an issue for the Big 12. It might be an issue for a team in a given year but it's not going to hold the conference back.

I agree it helps the Big 12. As the big boys are beating each other up a more deserving pac-12 or SEC team is going to get bounced as a Big 12 team can waltz on into the playoffs. No heated last game battle, less of a chance of any injuries to bring into the playoffs I dont think they can get away with that for long.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This was a bad weekend for the SEC to try and get 2 teams into the playoffs. The SEC West has been building a case that its Western Division is so dominant that the mediocre performance of the East should be overlooked. That argument is looking a little sketchier today. LSU lost to an Arkansas team whose best win prior to today was Northern Illinois. Missouri beat Texas A&M and Georgia beat Auburn. The SEC West is increasingly looking like Alabama and a bunch of good but not great teams.

 

[whaler11]

It might end up a circus. I didn't think a one loss team would be left out but seems likely now.

 

[SubbaBub]

Miss St. is #5 waiting on Oregon, Baylor, TCU, OSU or FSU to lose or Bama losing the iron bowl. I don't care what the committee says this week. Not being in the CCG will kill their chance against actual conference champions. The wild card is Bama losing to UGA in the CCG. Does the committee dare leave out a 2 loss SEC Champ? They should. Outside of Bama, the resumes aren't as good as they'd like us to believe.

 

[B1GEast]

Miss St. is #5 waiting on Oregon, Baylor, TCU, OSU or FSU to lose or Bama losing the iron bowl. I don't care what the committee says this week. Not being in the CCG will kill their chance against actual conference champions. The wild card is Bama losing to UGA in the CCG. Does the committee dare leave out a 2 loss SEC Champ? They should. Outside of Bama, the resumes aren't as good as they'd like us to believe.

i believe missouri is ahead of uga for the sec ccg

 

[SubbaBub]

i believe missouri is ahead of uga for the sec ccg

That would be worse for the SEC. Mizzou was blown out by UGA.

 

[pepband99]

Unlike in college basketball, most of college football does not have "committee ready" schedules, so the committee will be very subjective in the first couple of years. In basketball, teams play enough quality non-conference opponents that, together with their conference schedules, makes the selection committees job pretty easy. Whether it is Jerry Palm, Joe Lunardi or nelsonmuntz, no one who is bothering to do a mock selection gets more than 1 or 2 wrong out of 36 at-large bids. In football, top schools like Baylor and Mississippi State didn't play anyone in the non-conference, so the committee does not have much to work with in evaluating different teams.

The conferences have indicated that they believe that the committee will look at overall conference non-conference performance when assessing which conference records are the most impressive for the top teams in each conference, as evidenced by the Big 10's decision to no longer play FCS teams and the SEC's requirement that going forward every SEC team will have at least one OOC game against a P5.

Why does that matter now? Because the SEC still has 4 major non-conference games, and the SEC is definitely losing 2 of them and could lose all 4. Louisville is beating Kentucky and FSU is beating Florida. South Carolina has a shot at Clemson, albeit not a good one, and Georgia will be favored against Georgia Tech but won't be an overwhelming favorite. If the SEC goes 1-3 or 0-4 in those games, the league's overall record against the P5 will drop to 6-5 or 5-6. Since Mississippi State will not have a marquee OOC win, if they lose to Alabama, their chances of an at-large drop significantly at year end even if they beat Ole Miss.

The SEC West is now basing their dominance on 3 wins: LSU over Wisconsin, Auburn over Kansas State, and Alabama over WVU, and the WVU win is looking more and more "meh". Auburn vs. Georgia this weekend is basically the last major non-division game the SEC West plays. And the last thing the SEC wants is a Missouri team that lost to Indiana playing in the SEC Title game, and they control their own destiny. These teams aren't being picked by a popularity contest anymore. They have to win it on the field, and Alabama and Mississippi State's resumes are just OK.

I think that if Nebraska wins out, they will have a much better Playoff resume than Ohio State will.

Baylor and TCU can both make it if they win out, with a little help.

Ironically, the league that may turn out to be the strongest from top to bottom, the Pac 12, has almost no chance of getting 2 teams in the Playoff.

You're applying (good) basketball metrics to the football discussion. It won't happen. There is no way in hell even a 2 or 3 loss SEC champ gets left out. Call me crazy, but I'll believe when seen that this committee will work.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You're applying (good) basketball metrics to the football discussion. It won't happen. There is no way in hell even a 2 or 3 loss SEC champ gets left out. Call me crazy, but I'll believe when seen that this committee will work.

A 3 loss team won't get in. But it won't happen anyway. Miss State needs to beat Ole Miss and it would be in great shape. Bama still needs to beat Auburn. Oregon is the lock of the bunch, no tough games left except the P12 championship. FSU is in unless they lose to Florida and in the ACC championship game. Ohio State and Baylor have a chance to sneak in if say, MSU loses to Ole Miss.

 

[Dooley]

Mississippi State and Alabama should both get in if they win out. Oregon is in. I'd love to see Baylor leapfrog FSU but that is extremely unlikely.

My rankings would be:

1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. Miss St.
4. FSU

Baylor is 5 and next in should any of the top 4 lose. OSU is 6. TCU is 7 but boy they didn't do themselves any favors by struggling so badly against Kansas. They would need the most help of the 1-loss teams.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

FSU will get in if they win out but they're not in my top 4. Maybe the Gators play hard for Muschamp on his way out.

1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. Miss St.
4. Baylor

Followed by TCU, FSU and OSU. Nobody else in contention.