Pessimism grows in college football over season starting on time (update: it’s crumbling): | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Pessimism grows in college football over season starting on time (update: it’s crumbling):

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Even if the vast majority of new cases are in young healthy adults, unchecked community transmission means the disease will be transmitted to those more likely to get really sick, particularly if they don't have the means or income to maintain social distancing (like not working or not using public transport).
In any case, a lowered case fatality rate looks nice but it means squat when local health resources are being overrun, as is the current situation in the Rio Grande area in Texas
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NYC - in general - has some of the best hospitals and access to brilliant staffing in the country.

That absolutely is not true of many many of the denser demographics in AZ, FL, GA, TX or NC. Just not near. A similar wave coming these next 2 weeks will break hospitals easier.

There’s nothing The Administration has opined that has come true. Bumpy path from here.
 
Pudge said:
NYC - in general - has some of the best hospitals and access to brilliant staffing in the country.

That absolutely is not true of many many of the denser demographics in AZ, FL, GA, TX or NC. Just not near. A similar wave coming these next 2 weeks will break hospitals easier.

There’s nothing The Administration has opined that has come true. Bumpy path from here.
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yet NYC has had so many deaths. the i95 corridor from DC to Boston accounts for 50% plus of the US. when you look at the graph above look at the numbers on the Y axis. It’s 0 to 150 for the southwest. I get the trend and that’s not good, but don’t paint a rosy picture of the tri-state area.
 
Stinger92860 said:
yet NYC has had so many deaths. the i95 corridor from DC to Boston accounts for 50% plus of the US. when you look at the graph above look at the numbers on the Y axis. It’s 0 to 150 for the southwest. I get the trend and that’s not good, but don’t paint a rosy picture of the tri-state area.
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Cuomo didn't help matters when he pulled Covid 19 patients out of the hospitals and put them in nursing homes.
 
Stinger92860 said:
Thats the ‘old’ process. There are Phase 3 trials starting. It will not take 3 years. Either the Vaccines in test will be viable or they will not, but we will know in a much shorter time span.
[/QUOT

If it doesn't take or isn't viable, it isn't a vaccine.

I hope you are correct, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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cordarone said:
Even if the vast majority of new cases are in young healthy adults, unchecked community transmission means the disease will be transmitted to those more likely to get really sick, particularly if they don't have the means or income to maintain social distancing (like not working or not using public transport).
In any case, a lowered case fatality rate looks nice but it means squat when local health resources are being overrun, as is the current situation in the Rio Grande area in Texas
:
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Hidalgo County Population 868K - Hospitalized 320; In ICU 26

A lower fatality rate is always a good thing. Hidalgo County Deaths: 58, which is 58 too many
 
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Comparing numbers now and from March/early April are difficult. The testing capacity in those days was *so* low that so many cases went undetected.

This is an interesting article that talks about some researchers who tried to estimate how many people were actually infected in NYC at the time: bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-01/covid-19-cases-in-arizona-florida-texas-aren-t-on-same-scale?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

What's undeniable is that the ~60% test positivity rate that NYC had assures the total number of cases is vastly undercounted. For reference, AZ is ballparking at 20% right now.

That article cites this study which estimates as many as 800,000 New Yorkers were infected by March 16. Seroconversion of a city: Longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in New York City

The point: AZ, FL, CA, TX, and others are in awful spots right now and need to make drastic shifts in their strategy. Though it's tough to equate where they're at now with the early stages of the pandemic when the true prevalence of the disease, everyone agrees, was significantly undercounted. Many signs point to it not being at the same level. But that doesn't mean they need to act (masks, no large gatherings, promote distant outdoor activity, etc.) now.
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
Comparing numbers now and from March/early April are difficult. The testing capacity in those days was *so* low that so many cases went undetected.

This is an interesting article that talks about some researchers who tried to estimate how many people were actually infected in NYC at the time: bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-01/covid-19-cases-in-arizona-florida-texas-aren-t-on-same-scale?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

What's undeniable is that the ~60% test positivity rate that NYC had assures the total number of cases is vastly undercounted. For reference, AZ is ballparking at 20% right now.

That article cites this study which estimates as many as 800,000 New Yorkers were infected by March 16. Seroconversion of a city: Longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in New York City

The point: AZ, FL, CA, TX, and others are in awful spots right now and need to make drastic shifts in their strategy. Though it's tough to equate where they're at now with the early stages of the pandemic when the true prevalence of the disease, everyone agrees, was significantly undercounted. Many signs point to it not being at the same level. But that doesn't mean they need to act (masks, no large gatherings, promote distant outdoor activity, etc.) now.
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Not only was testing capacity insufficient, but the hospitals were scrambling to obtain PPE, vents and additional capacity. At this point, (almost) every hospital in the country has worked out their surge plan to add beds. Most have extra vents. The one thing that they cannot easily expand is staffing. The other component that is very different is treatment - there are now reasonably solid treatment plans and therapies for covid patients in various settings. All of these were complicating factors for the northeast that (other than staffing and possibly PPE down the road) the south/west does not have to deal with on the same level.
 


Alternate access link here< (The Outline conversion cut off the last two paragraphs which are here:

> This is head-spinning. I think we can see where this is, or should be, headed. With everything pushed to 2021, at least.

I love sports. I miss sports. I make a living through sports. But to push sports into this infinite coronavirus loop of an equation would be irresponsible until and unless there is a vaccine or suitable treatment.<
 
Part of the message

This isn’t the same virus as early March. And it’ll change in two months. You can’t explain the low mortality rates of Japan, Korea & Taiwan v Italy or Spain. There are huge unknowns.

There’s no way a massive outbreak now in a southwestern city patterns itself to a few weeks in Manhattan. My primary point is - seemingly - they learned nothing from the white knuckle days of the Northeast
 
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Coronavirus realities have schools worried about fall football

>>The Richmond Times-Dispatch's does some math on what COVID-19 testing could cost FB programs, "Some Power Five officials have suggested 2-3 tests per week during the season, which on the low end would cost $21,600 per week. Multiply that by the regular season’s 13 weeks and you get $280,800 — for football only. Ratchet up testing to three times a week, and the tab becomes $421,200 — again, for one sport."

Teel also talks to Wake ForestSenior Assoc. AD/Athletics Healthcare Administrator Grant, writes, "Grant confirmed what I’ve long suspected: The ACC advisory group is examining whether league teams should play non-conference opponents that don’t meet the ACC’s protocol."<<
 
Governor of South Carolina said USC and Clemson won’t play at least in the state unless the virus is under control. My guess is this will be like the NCAA tournament. They will try but in the end will cancel after a couple of weeks. Maybe they’ll delay the start then ultimately cancel.
 
Pudge said:
Part of the message

This isn’t the same virus as early March. And it’ll change in two months. You can’t explain the low mortality rates of Japan, Korea & Taiwan v Italy or Spain. There are huge unknowns.

There’s no way a massive outbreak now in a southwestern city patterns itself to a few weeks in Manhattan. My primary point is - seemingly - they learned nothing from the white knuckle days of the Northeast
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Having lived in Japan for five years, I believe there is more of a herd mentality there, a need to "fit in". They are more willing to follow orders and the police were more willing to use physical force during quarantine.
 


>>College athletics is bracing for the Ivy League’s decision regarding fall sports in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, an announcement that is expected to come down on Wednesday. Multiple football coaches in the Ivy League told The Athleticover the weekend that they expect Wednesday’s announcement to be that the league is moving all fall sports, including football, to spring 2021. The coaches spoke on the condition of anonymity because the conference has not announced its final decision.<<

>>Could the Ivy League’s decision regarding football be a harbinger of what’s to come at other levels once again? It’s possible. As one Power 5 administrator put it, a lot of university presidents — particularly those at top academic institutions in the Power 5 — consider Ivy League schools their peers. And they respect the level of research and expertise coming out of those campuses, as society at large waits for a COVID-19 vaccine.

“My suspicion is that the majority of presidents in the FBS are uncomfortable with the notion of playing football this fall but for various reasons don’t want to be the first to step out and say that,” the Power 5 administrator told The Athletic. “So, more than anything else, that decision provides the cover they need. I expect it’ll be a big domino.”<<

>>But despite the logistical challenges — and the financial hit so many athletic departments would take if they endured a fall without college football — decisions could still be made to prioritize public health above all else. “If we can do it safely, we can get past the inconveniences,” one Group of 5 athletic director said. “We stave off an entire year of no (college) sports.”<<
 
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huskymedic said:
... 2-3 tests per week during the season, which on the low end would cost $21,600 per week. Multiply that by the regular season’s 13 weeks and you get $280,800 — for football only. Ratchet up testing to three times a week, and the tab becomes $421,200 ..."
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I don't know how a State can justify spending resources to test its university's football players but not the citizens that fund the university. I can't see that happening...even in the SEC. Without a broad test/trace program, you can't play football...and the citizens have to be prioritized over football players.
 
Johnny Mac said:
I don't know how a State can justify spending resources to test its university's football players but not the citizens that fund the university. I can't see that happening...even in the SEC. Without a broad test/trace program, you can't play football...and the citizens have to be prioritized over football players.
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There was a great tweet today - if we're concerned enough about our professional/college athletes that we need to test daily, will we be doing the same for the children and teachers who return to school?
 
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It amazes me how many people don't understand how a virus spreads and what it takes to contain a spread absent a vaccine. We all want everything to be pre-virus, but its the square peg round hole thing. You can't wish or force a virus to stop spreading and of course it sucks. FWIW, I'm well connected to someone in the athletic ticket office and know they have regular conference calls. It's going to be a while before UConn, and I'm sure colleges and universities across the country, get back to anything resembling the good old days. Professors aren't keen on in person teaching right now. Sports are unlikely to be the tail wagging the dog.
 
Money

The Southern Public State schools monetary Needs are far different than Ivy. The answer is money. And while UConn budget is challenging ... being a Mississippi with a loss of tens of millions that they plugged into the budget will lead to a different decision tree.
 
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