Pessimism grows in college football over season starting on time (update: it’s crumbling):

[huskyrob1]

We have never developed a vaccine that works for the HIV virus....nor Ebola, nor MERS...herpes, malaria..etc.

Malaria is not a virus, and btw it kills between half a million and one million people every year.

 

[freescooter]

Europe has had a lot more deaths than the United States and it's per capita deaths is 10 times worse. Spain and Italy were disaster areas, even the UK got slammed, so I fail to see where Europe managed this pandemic better than the United States.

Talk to Arizona or Florida or Texas. Arizona hospitals we’re almost at capacity and are now authorized to decide who gets a ventilator based on such factors as life expectancy. The docs there call the people who make those calls the Death Panel. The EU get it under control and has kept it there. Economic activity is returning. New Zealand has live sports with full stadiums. There is a reason why Americans are banned from traveling to Europe. The US is adding 40,000 cases per day And increasing All of the EU around 5000 and stable or declining. Don’t include the U.K. and cases are declining. AND JUST FYI. we have more cases and more deaths now. To paraphrase Ronald Reagan when the other guy gets it the flu. When you get it it’s a pandemic. The real killer So to speak, Is after it hit the northeast and northwest we knew what to do to stop the spread. But these southern and western governors wanted to show they were so tough. Not like those wimpy northeaster elites. And our nation leaders couldn’t see past the stock market. And now Arizona has Death panels.

 

[huskyrob1]

Talk to Arizona or Florida or Texas. Arizona hospitals we’re almost at capacity and are now authorized to decide who gets a ventilator based on such factors as life expectancy. The docs there call the people who make those calls the Death Panel. The EU get it under control and has kept it there. Economic activity is returning. New Zealand has live sports with full stadiums. There is a reason why Americans are banned from traveling to Europe. The US is adding 40,000 cases per day And increasing All of the EU around 5000 and stable or declining. Don’t include the U.K. and cases are declining. AND JUST FYI. we have more cases and more deaths now. To paraphrase Ronald Reagan when the other guy gets it the flu. When you get it it’s a pandemic. The real killer So to speak, Is after it hit the northeast and northwest we knew what to do to stop the spread. But these southern and western governors wanted to show they were so tough. Not like those wimpy northeaster elites. And our nation leaders couldn’t see past the stock market. And now Arizona has Death panels.

I thought the surge in cases in Texas, Florida and Arizona was mostly among young people not adhering to safe distancing, no masks or gloves, bar hopping, beach going, etc. and I also heard it reported that despite this young people surge the death rate from Covid 19 is still on the decline nationally. I mean, how many people in those three states died from Covid 19 yesterday? My neighbors kid had Covid 19, he had the usual flu symptoms for 4 days and now he's fine.

Your sky is falling posts are annoying. Go do something constructive like 2 hours on your Peloton.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Stinger92860]

I believe the fastest a successful vaccine has ever been created was just over five years. Admittedly, this disease is seeing more concentrated global effort and shared research than most. That said, I doubt a real vaccine can be created in less than three years. And that would be a near scientific miracle.

Thats the ‘old’ process. There are Phase 3 trials starting. It will not take 3 years. Either the Vaccines in test will be viable or they will not, but we will know in a much shorter time span.

 

[Pudge]

We failed

Wuhan was a disaster. Chengdu & Chongqing, hours to the west in Sichuan province, had hundreds of cases. Cities of 12-16 million.

NYC gruesomeness should have put fear into all states on the continent; instead we got this bluster of nonsense. Lockdown worked in China & Europe. These spikes & the deaths that result are entirely on the imprudent example of those political leaders who refused to even seek a balance of public health to livelihoods. One death is too much ... you’re gonna get another 100,000. That’s not a Poster trying to depress us ... that’s the science telling us the coming months.

 

[Stinger92860]

I can’t tell from that graph if that represents deaths, but I think it’s likely as most of the daily numbers are under 100. Any idea if the white line is a 3 or 7 day moving average? I’ll take a look at the Tableau site.

 

[huskymedic]

I can’t tell from that graph if that represents deaths, but I think it’s likely as most of the daily numbers are under 100. Any idea if the white line is a 3 or 7 day moving average? I’ll take a look at the Tableau site.

Here is the larger graph:

Tableau Public

public.tableau.com

 

[freescooter]

Also don’t forget deaths are a lagging indicator. So as the disease surges deaths follow 2 weeks later. And hospitalizations are following the same trajectory as in NY. There might be better treatments as a result experience which will reduce deaths But infections are increasing in those States and sending people to the hospital. Not a good thing. And could have been avoided.

 

[huskymedic]

>>“To me, this becomes, ‘Do you think [playing in the spring] is doable?’ and I personally do,” Riley said, via OUDaily.com. “I do believe you can adjust your schedule. You’d have to adjust your schedule to give players plenty of time off to get their bodies back. . . . But I think the people who say it’s not doable, in my opinion, just don’t want to think about it. I just think it would be unwise to take any potential option off the table right now, and I think it would be very difficult to say that the spring’s not a potential option. I, for one, think it’s very doable.”<<

 

[cordarone]

Even if the vast majority of new cases are in young healthy adults, unchecked community transmission means the disease will be transmitted to those more likely to get really sick, particularly if they don't have the means or income to maintain social distancing (like not working or not using public transport).
In any case, a lowered case fatality rate looks nice but it means squat when local health resources are being overrun, as is the current situation in the Rio Grande area in Texas
:

 

[Pudge]

NYC - in general - has some of the best hospitals and access to brilliant staffing in the country.

That absolutely is not true of many many of the denser demographics in AZ, FL, GA, TX or NC. Just not near. A similar wave coming these next 2 weeks will break hospitals easier.

There’s nothing The Administration has opined that has come true. Bumpy path from here.

 

[Stinger92860]

NYC - in general - has some of the best hospitals and access to brilliant staffing in the country.

That absolutely is not true of many many of the denser demographics in AZ, FL, GA, TX or NC. Just not near. A similar wave coming these next 2 weeks will break hospitals easier.

There’s nothing The Administration has opined that has come true. Bumpy path from here.

yet NYC has had so many deaths. the i95 corridor from DC to Boston accounts for 50% plus of the US. when you look at the graph above look at the numbers on the Y axis. It’s 0 to 150 for the southwest. I get the trend and that’s not good, but don’t paint a rosy picture of the tri-state area.

 

[huskyrob1]

yet NYC has had so many deaths. the i95 corridor from DC to Boston accounts for 50% plus of the US. when you look at the graph above look at the numbers on the Y axis. It’s 0 to 150 for the southwest. I get the trend and that’s not good, but don’t paint a rosy picture of the tri-state area.

Cuomo didn't help matters when he pulled Covid 19 patients out of the hospitals and put them in nursing homes.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Thats the ‘old’ process. There are Phase 3 trials starting. It will not take 3 years. Either the Vaccines in test will be viable or they will not, but we will know in a much shorter time span.
[/QUOT

If it doesn't take or isn't viable, it isn't a vaccine.

I hope you are correct, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Stinger92860]

Even if the vast majority of new cases are in young healthy adults, unchecked community transmission means the disease will be transmitted to those more likely to get really sick, particularly if they don't have the means or income to maintain social distancing (like not working or not using public transport).
In any case, a lowered case fatality rate looks nice but it means squat when local health resources are being overrun, as is the current situation in the Rio Grande area in Texas
:

Hidalgo County Population 868K - Hospitalized 320; In ICU 26

A lower fatality rate is always a good thing. Hidalgo County Deaths: 58, which is 58 too many

 

[Stinger92860]

If it doesn't take or isn't viable, it isn't a vaccine.

Thats what viable means. Geesh.....

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Comparing numbers now and from March/early April are difficult. The testing capacity in those days was *so* low that so many cases went undetected.

This is an interesting article that talks about some researchers who tried to estimate how many people were actually infected in NYC at the time: bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-01/covid-19-cases-in-arizona-florida-texas-aren-t-on-same-scale?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

What's undeniable is that the ~60% test positivity rate that NYC had assures the total number of cases is vastly undercounted. For reference, AZ is ballparking at 20% right now.

That article cites this study which estimates as many as 800,000 New Yorkers were infected by March 16. Seroconversion of a city: Longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in New York City

The point: AZ, FL, CA, TX, and others are in awful spots right now and need to make drastic shifts in their strategy. Though it's tough to equate where they're at now with the early stages of the pandemic when the true prevalence of the disease, everyone agrees, was significantly undercounted. Many signs point to it not being at the same level. But that doesn't mean they need to act (masks, no large gatherings, promote distant outdoor activity, etc.) now.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Thats what viable means. Geesh.....

You have an issue with your own redundancy?

 

[huskypantz]

Comparing numbers now and from March/early April are difficult. The testing capacity in those days was *so* low that so many cases went undetected.

This is an interesting article that talks about some researchers who tried to estimate how many people were actually infected in NYC at the time: bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-01/covid-19-cases-in-arizona-florida-texas-aren-t-on-same-scale?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

What's undeniable is that the ~60% test positivity rate that NYC had assures the total number of cases is vastly undercounted. For reference, AZ is ballparking at 20% right now.

That article cites this study which estimates as many as 800,000 New Yorkers were infected by March 16. Seroconversion of a city: Longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in New York City

The point: AZ, FL, CA, TX, and others are in awful spots right now and need to make drastic shifts in their strategy. Though it's tough to equate where they're at now with the early stages of the pandemic when the true prevalence of the disease, everyone agrees, was significantly undercounted. Many signs point to it not being at the same level. But that doesn't mean they need to act (masks, no large gatherings, promote distant outdoor activity, etc.) now.

Not only was testing capacity insufficient, but the hospitals were scrambling to obtain PPE, vents and additional capacity. At this point, (almost) every hospital in the country has worked out their surge plan to add beds. Most have extra vents. The one thing that they cannot easily expand is staffing. The other component that is very different is treatment - there are now reasonably solid treatment plans and therapies for covid patients in various settings. All of these were complicating factors for the northeast that (other than staffing and possibly PPE down the road) the south/west does not have to deal with on the same level.

 

[huskymedic]

Alternate access link here< (The Outline conversion cut off the last two paragraphs which are here:

> This is head-spinning. I think we can see where this is, or should be, headed. With everything pushed to 2021, at least.

I love sports. I miss sports. I make a living through sports. But to push sports into this infinite coronavirus loop of an equation would be irresponsible until and unless there is a vaccine or suitable treatment.<

 

[Pudge]

Part of the message

This isn’t the same virus as early March. And it’ll change in two months. You can’t explain the low mortality rates of Japan, Korea & Taiwan v Italy or Spain. There are huge unknowns.

There’s no way a massive outbreak now in a southwestern city patterns itself to a few weeks in Manhattan. My primary point is - seemingly - they learned nothing from the white knuckle days of the Northeast

 

[huskymedic]

Coronavirus realities have schools worried about fall football

>>The Richmond Times-Dispatch's does some math on what COVID-19 testing could cost FB programs, "Some Power Five officials have suggested 2-3 tests per week during the season, which on the low end would cost $21,600 per week. Multiply that by the regular season’s 13 weeks and you get $280,800 — for football only. Ratchet up testing to three times a week, and the tab becomes $421,200 — again, for one sport."

Teel also talks to Wake ForestSenior Assoc. AD/Athletics Healthcare Administrator Grant, writes, "Grant confirmed what I’ve long suspected: The ACC advisory group is examining whether league teams should play non-conference opponents that don’t meet the ACC’s protocol."<<

 

[freescooter]

Governor of South Carolina said USC and Clemson won’t play at least in the state unless the virus is under control. My guess is this will be like the NCAA tournament. They will try but in the end will cancel after a couple of weeks. Maybe they’ll delay the start then ultimately cancel.

 

[SU1968]

Part of the message

This isn’t the same virus as early March. And it’ll change in two months. You can’t explain the low mortality rates of Japan, Korea & Taiwan v Italy or Spain. There are huge unknowns.

There’s no way a massive outbreak now in a southwestern city patterns itself to a few weeks in Manhattan. My primary point is - seemingly - they learned nothing from the white knuckle days of the Northeast

Having lived in Japan for five years, I believe there is more of a herd mentality there, a need to "fit in". They are more willing to follow orders and the police were more willing to use physical force during quarantine.