I agree its a two horse race between Evans and Bueckers. At the start of the season I assumed Rhyne Howard was a foregone conclusion, but she hasn't been at the level many expected.
When looking at Bueckers and Evans head to head statistically, Bueckers has the edge in PPG, FG%, 3FG%, RPG, APG, A/TO, SPG, and BPG. Evans only advantage is free throw shooting. I know statistics don't tell the whole story, but many voters go by stats, and its clear the stats favor Bueckers, and by a wide margin. Her shooting efficiency blows Evans out of the water and the 1.5 extra APG with fewer turnovers is a big way to differentiate them as pgs.
Evan's biggest asset is her "clutch" gene, but you could argue that Paige has proven the same. She was huge down the stretch against Arkansas, Tennessee, and South Carolina, our biggest games.
On the BY, we always worry about how level of competition in our conference will factor into things. Well SOS per Massey has Uconn at 63 and Louisville at 61.
I just can't come up with any reason Evans should win over Bueckers.