Our Resume Is Set, What's Our Seed? | Page 4 | The Boneyard

Our Resume Is Set, What's Our Seed?

Seed

  • Total voters
    362
  • Poll closed .
4xChamps said:
we should be pulling for Grand Canyon vs New Mexico St. Hartford is currently 168 in NET and NMSU is 160. If Hartford gets to 160 UConns win vs them goes from Q4 to Q3. NMSU losing makes it a lot easier for Hartford to jump up. Also DePaul is 163 maybe they can do nothing and get a bump up to 160 too who knows
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I don't think the Committee pays much attention to demarcating Q3 vs Q4.

Georgetown getting into Q1 helps.
 
4xChamps said:
we should be pulling for Grand Canyon vs New Mexico St. Hartford is currently 168 in NET and NMSU is 160. If Hartford gets to 160 UConns win vs them goes from Q4 to Q3. NMSU losing makes it a lot easier for Hartford to jump up. Also DePaul is 163 maybe they can do nothing and get a bump up to 160 too who knows
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I respect this, but also find it ridiculous
 
bendm said:
On the bright side this is the year to be in the 8/9 as I don’t think all of the 1 seeds will be deserving outside of Gonzaga and Baylor. Wouldn’t be scared of being in the Michigan or Illinois regions
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I'd throw Illinois in that elite group. They are peaking now, will almost always have the best player on the court (Ayo) and often the second best (Kofi), and play good D. Prototypical final four team. Michigan scares me less than they did earlier in the year
 
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aburks41 said:
4-4 in Q1, 4-3 in Q2 now. 0 Q3/Q4 losses. That is the resume of a 6 seed; 7 if the committee hates us. But 8-7 in Q1/Q2 while missing your best player for 8 games is definitely good enough for a 6 seed
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Actually 4-4, 3-3. The Q1 win comes from Q2 and the Q3 win replaces the Q2, doesn't add another one.
 
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7/8. The loss wasn’t terrible, but by the eye test we looked terrible and lost some cred. With Creighton getting slaughtered, it looks even worse. Just happy we have a chance to redeem ourselves.
 
bendm said:
On the bright side this is the year to be in the 8/9 as I don’t think all of the 1 seeds will be deserving outside of Gonzaga and Baylor. Wouldn’t be scared of being in the Michigan or Illinois regions
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I don’t want no part of Illinois. They’re making a deep run.
 
If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.
 
RayRay said:
I thought I read or heard from one of the cbb guys that the seeding and resume's are basically done by Saturday evening. They announce Sunday to seed the last minute bid stealers and things that could happen in Sunday championship games. So, even if Gtown gives us another q1 win as of a few minutes ago, I believe that the seed for us has already been done, and it won't matter.
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I believe they have multiple brackets made up based off different scenarios, especially if there are upsets in the conference tournaments where bids are stolen. Back in 2015 when we were playing in the AAC Championship game, our only shot at making the tournament was winning and getting the auto bid. The committee chair said on the selection show that they had multiple brackets based on if we won that game or not.
 
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Obviously hoping for a 7 seed or higher, but an 8 in the Baylor bracket could set us up nicely. I’m not convinced they’re better than the 2 seeds at this point in time.
 
Storrs South said:
If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.
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how is USC a 5 seed while we're a 9??
 
Storrs South said:
If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.
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Probably not gonna pass LSU. We were pretty even with them coming into the day before their win v Arkansas on Saturday which was arguably better than any win we’ve had all year.
 
Storrs South said:
If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.
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I created a table comparison of these teams. I distilled down the key metrics and added a few that I and others mentally create. Then I compared all the teams to UConn in each category, then checked who had the most edges over UConn out of 7. Net good W is Q1 wins minus Q3+Q4 losses. R/N is road/neutral. SOR includes BPI SOR, KPI, and WAB. Pred is BPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and Torvik. BM is the current bracket matrix seed (did not use those for comparison)..

TEAMBMNETSOR AVGPRED AVGQ1+2 WIN%NET GOOD WR/N WIN%SOSEdges
Missouri64723480.50070.615203
Oklahoma73744360.35740.417251
Oregon73424390.69200.692803
Clemson74117410.62520.455303
Wisconsin72636140.47850.46264
Florida83141340.50040.571231
LSU82825280.50050.538354
Loyola Chicago81034200.60020.7331434
San Diego St.81821200.66710.8331204
UConn93035160.50040.66755--

By this model, SDSU, Loyola, LSU, and Wisconsin would be all slightly above UConn. Missouri, Oregon, and Clemson right on par with UConn, and Florida and Oklahoma clearly behind.

The committee has shown a tendency to value the SOR and Net Good W quite substantially, so that probably puts Missouri ahead of UConn as well. So I think we end up as the best 8 seed.
 
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I get a chuckle at the discussion vs the OP. OP starts: Our resume is set... Discussion revolves around the moving parts of our resume which clearly wasn't set based on the influence of the performance of other teams. Lots of good input in this thread. Thanks. If we end up on the 8/9 line the missed free throws in the first Creighton game will have delivered the dreaded damage. Equivalent to missing an early extra point, or coming away with 2 field goals when you get inside the 5 yard line twice. You know it's going to bite you. If it doesn't, you know you lucked out. Welcome to Selection Sunday!
 
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