Our Resume Is Set, What's Our Seed?

[Tenspro2002]

Does it give us a 6/7 seed?

Might make a 7 more likely. I don't see a 6.

An 8 still wouldn't surprise me.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Georgetown x2
Hartford
USC

Only USC sort of meets the criteria of "truly signature" and I'd argue it doesn't. Calling UHart and GT signature wins is laughable.

 

[BlueDogs]

7/8. The loss wasn’t terrible, but by the eye test we looked terrible and lost some cred. With Creighton getting slaughtered, it looks even worse. Just happy we have a chance to redeem ourselves.

 

[Greg]

7 10 pct
8 50 pct
9 40 pct

 

[Marat]

7/8. The loss wasn’t terrible, but by the eye test we looked terrible and lost some cred. With Creighton getting slaughtered, it looks even worse. Just happy we have a chance to redeem ourselves.

But it's bidirectional... UConn also slaughtered Gtown a week ago.

 

[BigFanCT]

On the bright side this is the year to be in the 8/9 as I don’t think all of the 1 seeds will be deserving outside of Gonzaga and Baylor. Wouldn’t be scared of being in the Michigan or Illinois regions

I don’t want no part of Illinois. They’re making a deep run.

 

[Storrs South]

If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.

 

[Ts5034]

I thought I read or heard from one of the cbb guys that the seeding and resume's are basically done by Saturday evening. They announce Sunday to seed the last minute bid stealers and things that could happen in Sunday championship games. So, even if Gtown gives us another q1 win as of a few minutes ago, I believe that the seed for us has already been done, and it won't matter.

I believe they have multiple brackets made up based off different scenarios, especially if there are upsets in the conference tournaments where bids are stolen. Back in 2015 when we were playing in the AAC Championship game, our only shot at making the tournament was winning and getting the auto bid. The committee chair said on the selection show that they had multiple brackets based on if we won that game or not.

 

[blue93]

Obviously hoping for a 7 seed or higher, but an 8 in the Baylor bracket could set us up nicely. I’m not convinced they’re better than the 2 seeds at this point in time.

 

[bendm]

If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.

how is USC a 5 seed while we're a 9??

 

[6xChamps]

If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.

Probably not gonna pass LSU. We were pretty even with them coming into the day before their win v Arkansas on Saturday which was arguably better than any win we’ve had all year.

 

[auror]

If you look at Bracket Matrix, here are some of the teams UConn is competing with for a 7 seed:

Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Missouri, LSU, Loyola-Chicago, and San Diego State.

The only schools I see with better analytics and record are Wisconsin, Loyola, and SDSU. The others seem be either similar or worse resume wise and worse looking at KenPom.

I created a table comparison of these teams. I distilled down the key metrics and added a few that I and others mentally create. Then I compared all the teams to UConn in each category, then checked who had the most edges over UConn out of 7. Net good W is Q1 wins minus Q3+Q4 losses. R/N is road/neutral. SOR includes BPI SOR, KPI, and WAB. Pred is BPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and Torvik. BM is the current bracket matrix seed (did not use those for comparison)..

TEAM	BM	NET	SOR AVG	PRED AVG	Q1+2 WIN%	NET GOOD W	R/N WIN%	SOS	Edges
Missouri	6	47	23	48	0.500	7	0.615	20	3
Oklahoma	7	37	44	36	0.357	4	0.417	25	1
Oregon	7	34	24	39	0.692	0	0.692	80	3
Clemson	7	41	17	41	0.625	2	0.455	30	3
Wisconsin	7	26	36	14	0.478	5	0.462	6	4
Florida	8	31	41	34	0.500	4	0.571	23	1
LSU	8	28	25	28	0.500	5	0.538	35	4
Loyola Chicago	8	10	34	20	0.600	2	0.733	143	4
San Diego St.	8	18	21	20	0.667	1	0.833	120	4
UConn	9	30	35	16	0.500	4	0.667	55	--

By this model, SDSU, Loyola, LSU, and Wisconsin would be all slightly above UConn. Missouri, Oregon, and Clemson right on par with UConn, and Florida and Oklahoma clearly behind.

The committee has shown a tendency to value the SOR and Net Good W quite substantially, so that probably puts Missouri ahead of UConn as well. So I think we end up as the best 8 seed.

 

[UofCT]

With no bad losses. Should be a 7 seed. Maybe, even a 6.

Palm has us as a 5-seed

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[uconngb]

They beat us 3 times and are reasonably close in other metrics. Zero chance we're ahead of Creighton on the S curve.

Correct

 

[Ricker]

I get a chuckle at the discussion vs the OP. OP starts: Our resume is set... Discussion revolves around the moving parts of our resume which clearly wasn't set based on the influence of the performance of other teams. Lots of good input in this thread. Thanks. If we end up on the 8/9 line the missed free throws in the first Creighton game will have delivered the dreaded damage. Equivalent to missing an early extra point, or coming away with 2 field goals when you get inside the 5 yard line twice. You know it's going to bite you. If it doesn't, you know you lucked out. Welcome to Selection Sunday!

 

[Husky15]

Georgetown moved up to 64 in Net and effectively swapped a Q3 win to Q1 for us

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Mike DeCourcey has ...
Villanova 5 seed
Creighton 6
Connecticut 7
Georgetown 13

Xavier, first four out

The 4 seed that gets GTown is duck****d

 

[CTBasketball]

The 4 seed that gets GTown is duck****d

Hopefully it’s a soft Big Ten team. They’ll stand no chance.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Hopefully it’s a soft Big Ten team. They’ll stand no chance.

Purdue a good candidate for this

 

[CTBasketball]

Purdue a good candidate for this

I was just about to say - Purdue!

 

[Tenspro2002]

What I'm absolutely terrified we're going to hear tonight.

[Greg Gumble voice] "Your number one overall seed, the Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on the winner of our first play-in game.

And if they advance, they'll get the winner of this matchup between...the UConn Huskies, making their first Tournament appearance in 5 years and first under coach Dan Hurley, and... the Tar Heels of North Carolina.

A terrific couple of games the Committee has lined up in our first pod, a lot of championships and NCAA pedigree."

 

[BFieldHusky]

Palm has us a 5. Evans a 7. Lunardi an 8. Gonna be interesting. 30 NET. 16 KenPom. 15 BPI. Played half our schedule without our best player. @Storrs South what is the matrix saying?

 

[JB75]

What I'm absolutely terrified we're going to hear tonight.

[Greg Gumble voice] "Your number one overall seed, the Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on the winner of our first play-in game.

And if they advance, they'll get the winner of this matchup between...the UConn Huskies, making their first Tournament appearance in 5 years and first under coach Dan Hurley, and... the Tar Heels of North Carolina.

A terrific couple of games the Committee has lined up in our first pod, a lot of championships and NCAA pedigree."

Yup I can see it now. The one scenario that we want to avoid. No way were are not at least a 7. If we are worse than than that- it’s a joke

 

[Tenspro2002]

What I'm absolutely terrified we're going to hear tonight.

[Greg Gumble voice] "Your number one overall seed, the Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on the winner of our first play-in game.

And if they advance, they'll get the winner of this matchup between...the UConn Huskies, making their first Tournament appearance in 5 years and first under coach Dan Hurley, and... the Tar Heels of North Carolina.

A terrific couple of games the Committee has lined up in our first pod, a lot of championships and NCAA pedigree."

Oh, and Greg will also surely mention this being our first year "back" in the Big East. But you get the gist.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Palm has us a 5. Evans a 7. Lunardi an 8. Gonna be interesting. 30 NET. 16 KenPom. 15 BPI. Played half our schedule without our best player. @Storrs South what is the matrix saying?

Big range we could find ourselves in depending on what metrics they lean on.

KenPom has us a 6 or better, on the strength of having a lot of double-digit wins.

NET has us as an 8, on the weakness of having only one win over a top 50 team.

We'll see.