Our Resume Is Set, What's Our Seed?

[Vuce]

Have you watched Gonzaga this year?

I watched BYU not only hang with them but lead them for a lot of the game the other night. UConn is better than BYU

 

[imno1]

If we get a 6 seed I think seeing the second weekend is realistic. If we get a 7 or 8 seed I don't like our chances of making the second weekend. UConn is a very good team but not a top tier team. I like Hurley, I think he has us headed in the right direction, but this team doesn't have the overall talent level for a deep run. The best chance of winning some tourney games is to play more up tempo. We are 1-3 in games where we score 60 or less.

I think we are dangerous against most of the rest of the field. Teams don't want to catch us on a day when some of our shots fall.

 

[UofCT]

AAC we're a 12.

AAC we are not in

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Kenpom 18, NET 28 as of this AM - I think we are a 7.

 

[boba]

The only reason I think we'll avoid the 8 line is the committee wanting to avoid matching is up with the 1 seeds. Maybe with the 4th 1 seed but I have a hard time seeing us as the 8 with Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan

Agreed there's some "protection" built into the system and they would rather see a potential UConn / Gonzaga E8 than R32 but not sure about Baylor getting that pass. Still with no evidence or facts to back my assertion I propose they send us a #7 with a BG1 (whoever that is UM or ILL #2) and maybe a Kansas #3. Top 1 is Gonzaga so that's my guess for the bracket. Of course the real worry is the #10, got to get through them first.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I watched BYU not only hang with them but lead them for a lot of the game the other night. UConn is better than BYU

Zags are one of the better teams in recent memory.

 

[Jbirdp5]

The only reason I think we'll avoid the 8 line is the committee wanting to avoid matching is up with the 1 seeds. Maybe with the 4th 1 seed but I have a hard time seeing us as the 8 with Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan

Why would the committee not want us to play a 1?

 

[auror]

I watched BYU not only hang with them but lead them for a lot of the game the other night. UConn is better than BYU

BYU shot 80% from 3 in the first half when they were beating the Zags. Sure, if we shot 80% from 3 we could also hang with and then lose to the Zags.

 

[Vuce]

Zags are one of the better teams in recent memory.

My point still stands. BYU hung with them

 

[navery12]

Why would the committee not want us to play a 1?

Because our resume with Bouknight is 11-3 with the only losses to Creighton twice and Villanova, that's not an 8 seed and wouldn't be a fair matchup

 

[Ts5034]

So how does Hartford winning their conference help our numbers?

 

[Jbirdp5]

Because our resume with Bouknight is 11-3 with the only losses to Creighton twice and Villanova, that's not an 8 seed and wouldn't be a fair matchup

I hope your right that they would think in those terms. I have had a much more pessimistic view.

 

[connVA]

Have you watched Gonzaga this year?

Gonzaga is basically Creighton on steroids plus Suggs, who is Bouknight level. Presumably Few would just pull up the video of the three Creighton losses and put the foot on the accelerator.

Also- Timme against our bigs scares the hell out of me. Getting people in foul trouble is what he does and he does it very well.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Because our resume with Bouknight is 11-3 with the only losses to Creighton twice and Villanova, that's not an 8 seed and wouldn't be a fair matchup

The problem is, our resume with Bouknight is 11-3 with the only marquee win being USC.

Seton Hall is no longer impressive. Xavier (which was actually without Bouk) is no longer impressive.

Georgetown looks good lately -- and we beat them twice while they're not losing to anybody else -- but they're still a .500 team.

What we have going for us is:

• no bad losses
• good road/neutral record
• the eye test, especially with Bouknight (not just beating, but blowing out mediocre to decent teams)

Going against us:
- lack of wins against elite competition

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I’m honestly coming around on the 8/9 line. If you beat the 1 seed you BECOME THE ONE SEED

 

[Ts5034]

The problem is, our resume with Bouknight is 11-3 with the only marquee win being USC.

Seton Hall is no longer impressive. Xavier (which was actually without Bouk) is no longer impressive.

Georgetown looks good lately -- and we beat them twice while they're not losing to anybody else -- but they're still a .500 team.

What we have going for us is:

• no bad losses
• good road/neutral record
• the eye test, especially with Bouknight (not just beating, but blowing out mediocre to decent teams)

Going against us:
- lack of wins against elite competition

Does the “eye test” really help seeding though? I thought the eye test usually would help a bubble team make the tournament. Would the committee really bump us up a seed line because of our record with and without Bouknight?

 

[Kolumbo]

UConn will likely slide down in the others receiving votes category. I don't see how we move higher than 8 or 9. Even if they somehow move up to a 7 or 8, they will be playing a 1 or 2 in Round 2. So the most likely question is, how likely are they to defeat a 1 or 2 in round 2.

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

We won it all as a 7 seed and had to beat a 2, 3 4 and 1 seed . Seeding is mostly irrelevant, its really about match ups.

 

[navery12]

The problem is, our resume with Bouknight is 11-3 with the only marquee win being USC.

Seton Hall is no longer impressive. Xavier (which was actually without Bouk) is no longer impressive.

Georgetown looks good lately -- and we beat them twice while they're not losing to anybody else -- but they're still a .500 team.

What we have going for us is:

• no bad losses
• good road/neutral record
• the eye test, especially with Bouknight (not just beating, but blowing out mediocre to decent teams)

Going against us:
- lack of wins against elite competition

I just don't agree on Seton Hall and Xavier not being impressive. If they win 1 more game and are both in the last 4 in suddenly they become good wins again? Just seems like such an arbitrary line to draw, especially in a year where there's such a small difference between bubble teams

 

[auror]

To get off the 8/9 we'd have to jump good analytical teams without a ton of big wins like us but who have 19-20+ wins in general (San Diego St., Loyola Chicago, BYU)

Or teams with a lot more wins and winning records in Q1+Q2 but worse analytics - Clemson, Florida

Or teams with 5+ Q1 wins to our 3 - Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Missouri

And we need to be ahead of 4-6 of these teams.

 

[Kolumbo]

We won it all as a 7 seed and had to beat a 2, 3 4 and 1 seed . Seeding is mostly irrelevant, its really about match ups.

That certainly was an incredible run but not a high percentage route to take and match ups are important. I wouldn't say seedings are mostly irrelevant or everyone wouldn't spend so much time analyzing them

 

[XLCenterFan]

If I were a committee member looking at all objective criteria I would slot UConn on the #6 line. That would be my fair evaluation without watching as much basketball this year as usual but still having a good idea of the national scene and most rosters nationwide. I think two teams maybe three outside the top three or four seed lines are very dangerous for Final Four runs.

JMHO per the usual.

View attachment 65713

Love it. I had Seton Hall and Maryland last year at like 50/60-1. Thought I had some good hedge equity.

 

[XLCenterFan]

I bet an 8. We will likely end the season ranked 29-32.

 

[BleedHuskyBlu]

Want a 7 seed and face one of them football schools. Ohio State, Oklahoma St, or Bama.
Have a bad feeling we’ll get a 9 seed vs like Loyola Chicago

 

[SubbaBub]

Hope for 7/10, but you know damn well we’re getting stuck with an 8/9.

This may not be Rule #1, but it's close.