OT: World Cup

[intlzncster]

Germany is too complete. The score may be 1-0 but Germany will completely out play Argentina.

Don't let the score against a weak and undermanned Brazil team fool you. That wasn't an example of German greatness, as much as it was Brazilian complete and utter ineptness in the back.

German defense is slow. Argentina's attack is not. They may have Di Maria back too. In addition, Argentina's defense has tightened up considerably since this cup started. And Argentina has the best player on the pitch.

All that said, if I bet on soccer, I'd take Germany.

 

[intlzncster]

Follow up on the Messi vs Ronaldo article: Messi vs Maradona vs Pele

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/messi-is-better-than-maradona-but-maybe-not-pele/

 

[Husky25]

Don't let the score against a weak and undermanned Brazil team fool you. That wasn't an example of German greatness, as much as it was Brazilian complete and utter ineptness in the back.

German defense is slow. Argentina's attack is not. They may have Di Maria back too. In addition, Argentina's defense has tightened up considerably since this cup started. And Argentina has the best player on the pitch.

All that said, if I bet on soccer, I'd take Germany.

I'm not.

Except for Ghana, Germany has outplayed every one of their opponents up to this point, regardless of score. Argentina is coming off 120 minutes plus PK's and the game and Germany will have a full day more of rest. Germany's defense may be comparatively slow, but it's still formidable and Neuer might be the best keeper in the world. I don't need to remind anyone what a solid keeper can do even with a less than solid back line, which Germany does not have.

Argentina may have the best player, but Germany will have the better all-around team.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Germany's slaughter of Brazil is fresh in everyone's mind, but they barely squeaked by Algeria in the round of 16. If they play like that against Argentina, they're going to lose. I still think they're the favorite, but they've been wildly inconsistent this tournament. Blowouts against Portugal and Brazil aside, you're looking at a draw with Ghana, 1-0 wins over the US and France, and a 2-1 extra time win over Algeria in which Algeria nearly knocked them out.

 

[intlzncster]

Except for Ghana, Germany has outplayed every one of their opponents up to this point, regardless of score. Argentina is coming off 120 minutes plus PK's and the game and Germany will have a full day more of rest. Germany's defense may be comparatively slow, but it's still formidable and Neuer might be the best keeper in the world. I don't need to remind anyone what a solid keeper can do even with a less than solid back line, which Germany does not have.

I do think you are overestimating how well they've played though, especially in comparison to Argentina. Germany has gotten wins, but certainly haven't looked sharp in every game. Getting pressed by Algeria was worrying. Algeria outplayed them for 90 minutes.

Argentina is 6-0 in the WC so far; Germany is 5-1. Argentina has not given up a goal since the group stage; Germany has given up two.

Romero is playing every bit as well as Neuer in this tournament, perhaps better. And Messi can make the greatest keepers in the world look like fools.

 

[Gurleyman]

I'm not. Except for Ghana, Germany has outplayed every one of their opponents up to this point, regardless of score. Argentina is coming off 120 minutes plus PK's and the game and Germany will have a full day more of rest. Germany's defense may be comparatively slow, but it's still formidable and Neuer might be the best keeper in the world. I don't need to remind anyone what a solid keeper can do even with a less than solid back line, which Germany does not have. Argentina may have the best player, but Germany will have the better all-around team.

Algeria gave them a lot of problems - mostly pressuring the ball and creating turnovers with quick counters. Germany had the better of play over the full game, but Algeria had a lot of quality chances. Don't know if Argentina can duplicate that playbook - they may not have the energy and personnel for consistent high pressure.

 

[Husky25]

I do think you are overestimating how well they've played though, especially in comparison to Argentina. Germany has gotten wins, but certainly haven't looked sharp in every game. Getting pressed by Algeria was worrying. Algeria outplayed them for 90 minutes.

Argentina is 6-0 in the WC so far; Germany is 5-1. Argentina has not given up a goal since the group stage; Germany has given up two.

Romero is playing every bit as well as Neuer in this tournament, perhaps better. And Messi can make the greatest keepers in the world look like fools.

Algeria gave them a lot of problems - mostly pressuring the ball and creating turnovers with quick counters. Germany had the better of play over the full game, but Algeria had a lot of quality chances. Don't know if Argentina can duplicate that playbook - they may not have the energy and personnel for consistent high pressure.

Germany is 5-0-1 and one of the goals that they gave up was a throw away with less than 2 minutes remaining when they where up by a TD + PAT. I'm not saying that Argentina has no shot at winning (especially if it goes to PKs). Far from it. That's now how it works in soccer. However I think Germany is the better all around team and a better shot at winning.

I saw earlier today that the degenerates are saying the same thing. Germany is virtually even money to win. Argentina is at 5-2.

 

[bobbygt]

I think Germany is playing on another level right now.

I thought Argentina and the Netherlands were evenly matched and both teams seemed to have petered out as the tournament went on-Messi is starting to show that he's worn out carrying his team and he's not going to get any respite playing the Germans.

Germany, on the other hand, seems to have gotten better and they're playing with confidence.

Don't mess with the Meinschaft.

 

[auror]

Algeria gave them a lot of problems - mostly pressuring the ball and creating turnovers with quick counters. Germany had the better of play over the full game, but Algeria had a lot of quality chances. Don't know if Argentina can duplicate that playbook - they may not have the energy and personnel for consistent high pressure.

Agree, I think posters above are underrating Algeria. They led Belguim for 50 minutes before tiring and giving up goals, same thing that happened against Germany. They acquitted themselves well this tournament.

Germany has been the better team in every game this tournament and I think that continues. I will say that Argentina's defense has been exceptional the last few games (blanking Belguim, Switzerland, and Netherlands back-to-back-to-back is crazy impressive), but Germany has the most potent offense in the tournament.

 

[CallMeBruce]

I think Germany is playing on another level right now.

I thought Argentina and the Netherlands were evenly matched and both teams seemed to have petered out as the tournament went on-Messi is starting to show that he's worn out carrying his team and he's not going to get any respite playing the Germans.

Germany, on the other hand, seems to have gotten better and they're playing with confidence.

Don't mess with the Meinschaft.

Messi isn't worn out. He created several excellent attacking chances despite being man-marked all game by De Jong, and usually also Vlaar. The Dutch attack went completely in the toilet in large part because they expended so much energy trying to contain Messi.

 

[intlzncster]

Germany is 5-0-1 and one of the goals that they gave up was a throw away with less than 2 minutes remaining when they where up by a TD + PAT. I'm not saying that Argentina has no shot at winning (especially if it goes to PKs). Far from it. That's now how it works in soccer. However I think Germany is the better all around team and a better shot at winning.

I think Germany is playing on another level right now.
I thought Argentina and the Netherlands were evenly matched and both teams seemed to have petered out as the tournament went on-Messi is starting to show that he's worn out carrying his team and he's not going to get any respite playing the Germans.
Germany, on the other hand, seems to have gotten better and they're playing with confidence.
Don't mess with the Meinschaft.

I'm not sure why you say Argentina has gotten weaker, bobby; I think the opposite is true. They progressed in play to a greater degree than the Germans. I don't think the Germans have gotten much better. They've looked good from the start, but again, have been choppy. The Argentine defense, with it's change in starters has solidified.

Yesterday's game, like the game before it, was not a good barometer. That was a Dutch team playing to not get beat. If Germany plays this way, as they did against Algeria, they will lose. (I do not expect them to mind you)

The only reason Messi was pedestrian against the dutch is they doubled him most of the game, with De Jong shadowing his every move. The Dutch played not to lose, and kept 7-8 men back most of the time. Will Germany keep 8 back as well? I don't think so.

Messi was also hurt by not having the dynamic speed and dangerous ability of Di Maria. Outside of Messi's great scoring, Di Maria has been Argentina's best player this tournament. Hopefully, he is back next game.

Aguero's fitness was questionable as well last game. He should be relatively back to full speed by then.

Again, all that said, I favor Germany.

 

[Husky25]

Yesterday's game, like the game before it, was not a good barometer. That was a Dutch team playing to not get beat.

They played the same way vs. Costa Rica. The Dutch deserved to lose yesterday and they almost pulled it out at the end of regulation.

 

[John]

love this article about Messi, very interesting stuff

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lionel-messi-is-impossible/

 

[CallMeBruce]

love this article about Messi, very interesting stuff

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lionel-messi-is-impossible/

I actually posted this on the prior page, but if you like reading about how good Messi is, here's the sequel to that article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/messi-is-better-than-maradona-but-maybe-not-pele/

 

[intlzncster]

I actually posted this on the prior page, but if you like reading about how good Messi is, here's the sequel to that article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/messi-is-better-than-maradona-but-maybe-not-pele/

And I posted that on the prior page!

 

[bobbygt]

Messi isn't worn out. He created several excellent attacking chances despite being man-marked all game by De Jong, and usually also Vlaar. The Dutch attack went completely in the toilet in large part because they expended so much energy trying to contain Messi.

But he's Messi- of course he's going to create some chances.

Think back to Kemba in 2011 BET. He was often exhausted, but as he's the Man, he's going to come up with something at some point.

With the exception of those plays, I could hardly even find Messi on the field. Don't forget, De Jong was coming off an injury and was far from his usual pitbull self. Vlaar did do an excellent job.

The reason the Dutch attack failed had less to do with containing Messi, than their lack of forward moving talent in the center of the field. Wijnaldum, Blind, and Kuyt are not capable of moving the ball forward. If you watched the game, the Dutch defenders would serve them the ball and they'd either pass it back or pass it laterally. Sneijder too, who has had a superb career, is not what he once was and save his game saving shot against Mexico, has done little this tournament in terms of attacking the opponent.

Without an attacking midfield, the Dutch resorted to trying to serve Van Persie and Robben with long balls, which is very low percentage and gave their two most talented players little to work with.

 

[bobbygt]

I'm not sure why you say Argentina has gotten weaker, bobby; I think the opposite is true. They progressed in play to a greater degree than the Germans. I don't think the Germans have gotten much better. They've looked good from the start, but again, have been choppy. The Argentine defense, with it's change in starters has solidified.

Yesterday's game, like the game before it, was not a good barometer. That was a Dutch team playing to not get beat. If Germany plays this way, as they did against Algeria, they will lose. (I do not expect them to mind you)

The only reason Messi was pedestrian against the dutch is they doubled him most of the game, with De Jong shadowing his every move. The Dutch played not to lose, and kept 7-8 men back most of the time. Will Germany keep 8 back as well? I don't think so.

Messi was also hurt by not having the dynamic speed and dangerous ability of Di Maria. Outside of Messi's great scoring, Di Maria has been Argentina's best player this tournament. Hopefully, he is back next game.

Aguero's fitness was questionable as well last game. He should be relatively back to full speed by then.

Again, all that said, I favor Germany.

I felt the Argentines too, after a good first 20 minutes or so, sat back as well.

Germany will attack more than the Dutch, and they played a very high back line against Algeria, a repeat of which could create chances for Messi. But I just don't see Argentina winning this game.

Germany is better than the Dutch at virtually every position-forward being the only possible exception.

 

[bobbygt]

They played the same way vs. Costa Rica. The Dutch deserved to lose yesterday and they almost pulled it out at the end of regulation.

As a caveat, as you can see, I'm a Dutch soccer fan, so excuse me if I'm getting annoyingly defensive (pun intended!).

I disagree about the Costa Rica game comparison. Against CR the Dutch were trying to pick their spots against an overly defensive, and overmatched team. They outshot CR 20-6 and had 11 corners to CR's 1. Further, the Netherlands were called offsides 13 times- that is a huge number, but also shows that they were trying to move forward, but did not become savvy to CR's traps.

You could almost say that the roles were reversed in this last game, since I do think that Argentina has more individual talent than Netherlands, but I think it was less them parking the bus as it was their midfielders incapability of playing against a superior team. They weren't exposed this way against Mexico and CR.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They played the same way vs. Costa Rica. The Dutch deserved to lose yesterday and they almost pulled it out at the end of regulation.

I don't buy this at all. I watched it and the Dutch were much more aggressive in attack than Argentina, sending more men forward. They thoroughly controlled possession for much of the game and had the better chances by a significant margin.

Argentina has played better defense since the opener precisely because they have kept everyone back and rarely attack with more than 3 or 4 men. They rely on individual brilliance to get them goals. Yesterday it didn't. They are playing much like the Italians used to, and it's a pretty ugly brand of soccer.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Germany looks to be the better team while Argentina looks to have the better players going into the final. Germany will look to shut down Messi and I think what will determine if someone else for Argentina can step up because Argentina will need at least 1 goal to get to PK’s or at least 2 to win because Germany will get a set piece at some point and will bury it. They are very surgical this year.

My biggest concerns is that I hope Brazil does not burn down if Argentina wins and where the heck to watch the game as I am going away with friends to the Adirondacks and I don’t think there will be a sports bar within 20 miles of where I will be

 

[CallMeBruce]

As a caveat, as you can see, I'm a Dutch soccer fan, so excuse me if I'm getting annoyingly defensive (pun intended!).

I disagree about the Costa Rica game comparison. Against CR the Dutch were trying to pick their spots against an overly defensive, and overmatched team. They outshot CR 20-6 and had 11 corners to CR's 1. Further, the Netherlands were called offsides 13 times- that is a huge number, but also shows that they were trying to move forward, but did not become savvy to CR's traps.

You could almost say that the roles were reversed in this last game, since I do think that Argentina has more individual talent than Netherlands, but I think it was less them parking the bus as it was their midfielders incapability of playing against a superior team. They weren't exposed this way against Mexico and CR.

I'm not sure what CR is doing with their offside trap, but I seem to remember Italy suffering from going offside over and over again as well.

 

[intlzncster]

I don't buy this at all. I watched it and the Dutch were much more aggressive in attack than Argentina, sending more men forward. They thoroughly controlled possession for much of the game and had the better chances by a significant margin.

I didn't see that at all. Below are the match stats. The time of possession favors the Dutch because they sat so many guys back and clogged up the area. Argentina were trying to play their usual possession game, but there wasn't enough space.

The Dutch didn't get their first shot on goal until the 99th minute!! That says it all imo. Argentina had the more dangerous chances imo (sweet Messi cross to offside Higuain; Palacio penalty box header) . Several of the Dutch chances were outside bombs without a prayer.

Here's the shot chart (didn't look up on my own):

 

[intlzncster]

I'm not sure what CR is doing with their offside trap, but I seem to remember Italy suffering from going offside over and over again as well.

They were very well organized. That's why they went so far. Coach deserves a medal.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I didn't see that at all. Below are the match stats. The time of possession favors the Dutch because they sat so many guys back and clogged up the area. Argentina were trying to play their usual possession game, but there wasn't enough space.

The Dutch didn't get their first shot on goal until the 99th minute!! That says it all imo. Argentina had the more dangerous chances imo (sweet Messi cross to offside Higuain; Palacio penalty box header) . Several of the Dutch chances were outside bombs without a prayer.

View attachment 6352

Here's the shot chart (didn't look up on my own):

Argentina blocked a lot of shots and disrupted play effectively on defense. But the ball was on the Argentine side of the field much more often. I didn't see them sitting back at all, I saw Robben, Sneijder and Kuyt holding the ball in the offensive end and passing it around for long periods without Argentina doing anything. Argentina was sitting back even more. They rarely had five men cross midfield. Their shots were on the counter.

 

[bobbygt]

I didn't see that at all. Below are the match stats. The time of possession favors the Dutch because they sat so many guys back and clogged up the area. Argentina were trying to play their usual possession game, but there wasn't enough space.

The Dutch didn't get their first shot on goal until the 99th minute!! That says it all imo. Argentina had the more dangerous chances imo (sweet Messi cross to offside Higuain; Palacio penalty box header) . Several of the Dutch chances were outside bombs without a prayer.

View attachment 6352

Here's the shot chart (didn't look up on my own):

Good stats- but Robben had the best chance for the Dutch in the 90th minute- he really could've scored but poked his touch too far ahead in the box, allowing Mascherano to dive in and get a foot on it. It might not be considered a 'shot on goal' but it was one of the best chances of the game for either team.

Argentina really didn't have any good chances until the 2nd OT, when Palacio had that weak header and Rodriguez delivered a very weak shot on a great cross from Messi.

Higuian did get a head on the cross, but the defender played it excellently and it never got on goal. So, the only two times Argentina seriously threatened the Dutch was 115 minutes in (Messi's direct kick was a decent chance as well).

I thought Argentina came out well to begin with, but I can't say that Argentina was the positive team and the Dutch played negatively.

I just thought Argentina played their game better: they put a lot of pressure on the Dutch midfielders, and stayed super tight on Van Persie and Robben, not allowing them time, which took away the Dutch offensive flow. Similarly, the Dutch eventually neutralized Argentina and with the exception of those plays in the 2nd OT, their defensive strategy worked well.

This was not a Germany/US, Netherlands/Costa Rica game- the two sides were fairly even and I saw both teams being equally cautious.