OT: Stock trading | Page 194 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

casual-yardin said:
Who said anything about prices? The Fed buying bonds has always been about liquidity. Prices are mostly a function of interest rates.
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I suppose his point was that restricting the overall supply (by buying up bonds on the secondary market) allowed new issuances to be sold at lower rates than they otherwise would have been.
 
B1GEast said:
That's fiscal policy vs monetary policy. Our governments recenr fiscal policy decisions have put a strain on what the Fed can and can't do.
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If you want to tamp down the economy, you can also do things like end the Step Up in Basis. That right there will reduce the deficit, take money out of circulation, and people will keep their jobs. But there is little will to do that in Congress.
 
As I feared, any attempt at optimism the last 5 days, is quickly met with the reality you’re catching a falling knife. Be careful everyone, better days will eventually come, but not likely soon
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Even if it's two years until it turns around, the perm-bears are still wrong . . .
 
Excalibur said:
Even if it's two years until it turns around, the perm-bears are still wrong . . .
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I’ve been buying in my kids’ UTMA accounts here and there. They can’t touch it for 10+ years so I have a nice long runway for Apple, NVDA, Amazon and others.
 
upstater said:
That's because they're constrained by policy makers.

The answer to overheating economy is not always interest rates. You can do a great many things. If it's too much credit in the system, too much in circulation, congress has the ability to curtail that in ways that don't require huge increases in unemployment. But that's not the world the Fed lives in.
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Politics is always first.
 
Unfortunately, we are moving to new lows and each time the lows are lower. Be careful my friends. With our dwindling emergency energy reserves, we have less cushion for the likely energy shocks coming this winter. Not the time to be aggressive. First rule of investing, materially protect your principle. There will be better economic environments to make money down the road.
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Now that inflation has been reported. Over-all, 3rd quarter earnings growth has been significantly revised down since July and earnings now will be the short term catalyst. This trend will more likely excelerate downward than stabilize or reverse over the next 2 months.
 
S&P500 down 21% YTD and 120 points before testing new lows for the year. That will likely come during 3rd quarter earnings and forecasts. It is ugly out there, be careful investing for awhile. I do think the next wipeout will be the floor with opportunities.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
About time for a correction. The market has gone almost straight up since 2009. In bought the TZA at (which shorts the Russell) 15 quite a while ago and plan on holding it for the foreseeable future.
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When did you get that at 15?
 
Unfortunately, as I feared, the S&P500 has retested a new low for the year. The lows just keep getting lower as the year progresses. 3Q Earnings are going to be generally brutal, so more pain before gain. Continue to be careful out there. Perhaps, the bond market will eventually turn and lead us into something good, but not for awhile.
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Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox
 
uconndogs said:
Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox
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Timing it isn’t really ideal. It’s more of using technical analysis to time when it will pull back or run up.

And maybe a little current events and what’s going on in the world too.
 
CTBasketball said:
Timing it isn’t really ideal. It’s more of using technical analysis to time when it will pull back or run up.

And maybe a little current events and what’s going on in the world too.
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Sorry, but I don't believe you can do it any better than anyone else over the long-term.
 
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