OT: Stock trading | Page 194 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

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Watching professional traders on CNBC and one Bryn Talkington said the Fed has over 400 PhDs and they still don't get things right.
That's because they're constrained by policy makers.

The answer to overheating economy is not always interest rates. You can do a great many things. If it's too much credit in the system, too much in circulation, congress has the ability to curtail that in ways that don't require huge increases in unemployment. But that's not the world the Fed lives in.
 
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What I've noticed is that a lot of people are very good at asking questions, i.e., issue spotting, but very few if any are good at answering them when it comes to predicting cause and effect. Seems we usually don't truly know the cause(s) until long after the fact.

Which is why it's called economic theory, not science; and why they are called forecasts.

If we are in unprecedented times, are we supposed to ignore historical trends? Take them with a grain of salt?

I don't pretend to have the answers, but it's interesting to watch the swings.
I would argue Economic Theory almost always works long term. Supply and demand, expected inflationary result from money supply expansion (too many dollars chasing too few goods), two negative quarters being recessionary, etc). Often when government intervenes it may change the timing of achieving equilibrium but not the ultimate results the theory expected. When I told people to be careful investing in the recent pages in this thread, the caution was all based on economic theory that has existed for many decades and recent corporate activity that one would expect to respond to these trends driven by that that theory.
 
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That's because they're constrained by policy makers.

The answer to overheating economy is not always interest rates. You can do a great many things. If it's too much credit in the system, too much in circulation, congress has the ability to curtail that in ways that don't require huge increases in unemployment. But that's not the world the Fed lives in.

That's fiscal policy vs monetary policy. Our governments recenr fiscal policy decisions have put a strain on what the Fed can and can't do.
 
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People were saying "this time it's different" when stocks were running from 2010-21. Others said "this time it's different" in 2008.

Yes, it may be different, but the overwhelming likelihood is that it isn't. It is only a matter of how long the current cycle lasts. If it is in fact different this time, it's probably going to be due to massive armed conflict or some other society-collapsing event(s), in which case it doesn't really matter anyway.
 
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So you don't think purchases of existing bonds in the secondary market will affect the price of any new issues?
Who said anything about prices? The Fed buying bonds has always been about liquidity. Prices are mostly a function of interest rates.
 
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That's fiscal policy vs monetary policy. Our governments recenr fiscal policy decisions have put a strain on what the Fed can and can't do.
This. Thank you. Debt, deficits, budgets, policy, regulation, how and why we spend the money are all functions of Congress. The Fed just does the best they can with the limited tools it has.
 
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Who said anything about prices? The Fed buying bonds has always been about liquidity. Prices are mostly a function of interest rates.

I suppose his point was that restricting the overall supply (by buying up bonds on the secondary market) allowed new issuances to be sold at lower rates than they otherwise would have been.
 
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That's fiscal policy vs monetary policy. Our governments recenr fiscal policy decisions have put a strain on what the Fed can and can't do.
If you want to tamp down the economy, you can also do things like end the Step Up in Basis. That right there will reduce the deficit, take money out of circulation, and people will keep their jobs. But there is little will to do that in Congress.
 
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As I feared, any attempt at optimism the last 5 days, is quickly met with the reality you’re catching a falling knife. Be careful everyone, better days will eventually come, but not likely soon
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Even if it's two years until it turns around, the perm-bears are still wrong . . .
 

StllH8L8ner

You’ll get nothing and like it!
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Even if it's two years until it turns around, the perm-bears are still wrong . . .
I’ve been buying in my kids’ UTMA accounts here and there. They can’t touch it for 10+ years so I have a nice long runway for Apple, NVDA, Amazon and others.
 
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That's because they're constrained by policy makers.

The answer to overheating economy is not always interest rates. You can do a great many things. If it's too much credit in the system, too much in circulation, congress has the ability to curtail that in ways that don't require huge increases in unemployment. But that's not the world the Fed lives in.
Politics is always first.
 
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Unfortunately, we are moving to new lows and each time the lows are lower. Be careful my friends. With our dwindling emergency energy reserves, we have less cushion for the likely energy shocks coming this winter. Not the time to be aggressive. First rule of investing, materially protect your principle. There will be better economic environments to make money down the road.
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Now that inflation has been reported. Over-all, 3rd quarter earnings growth has been significantly revised down since July and earnings now will be the short term catalyst. This trend will more likely excelerate downward than stabilize or reverse over the next 2 months.
 
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S&P500 down 21% YTD and 120 points before testing new lows for the year. That will likely come during 3rd quarter earnings and forecasts. It is ugly out there, be careful investing for awhile. I do think the next wipeout will be the floor with opportunities.
 
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About time for a correction. The market has gone almost straight up since 2009. In bought the TZA at (which shorts the Russell) 15 quite a while ago and plan on holding it for the foreseeable future.
When did you get that at 15?
 

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