OT: Stock trading

[CONN78SEJ]

When did you get that at 15?

A couple years ago which was prior to a reverse split.

 

[Chief00]

Unfortunately, as I feared, the S&P500 has retested a new low for the year. The lows just keep getting lower as the year progresses. 3Q Earnings are going to be generally brutal, so more pain before gain. Continue to be careful out there. Perhaps, the bond market will eventually turn and lead us into something good, but not for awhile.

 

[uconndogs]

Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox

 

[CTBasketball]

Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox

Timing it isn’t really ideal. It’s more of using technical analysis to time when it will pull back or run up.

And maybe a little current events and what’s going on in the world too.

 

[uconndogs]

Timing it isn’t really ideal. It’s more of using technical analysis to time when it will pull back or run up.

And maybe a little current events and what’s going on in the world too.

Sorry, but I don't believe you can do it any better than anyone else over the long-term.

 

[August_West]

Id just as soon play craps.

 

[Chief00]

Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox

Assumed in your post is a World of absolutes, fully invested /zero invested. Personally, I don’t invest in Crypto because I don’t understand it. However, in the World of stocks, bonds, cash and commodities; I regularly adjust my allocations. Some plays have historically performed better under certain macro conditions. Principles such as don’t fight the Federal Reserve have been proven wise over time. When the money supply was expanded 20% through monetary and fiscal policies, stocks tend to go up in the short run. But then, too many dollars chasing too few goods causes inflation.
Sure, you stay invested in things you feel won’t do well in the short term because you could be wrong, but perhaps you reduce the allocation to that sector.
For example, Ultilities to me have a current appeal due to dividend income and the longer term public policy to use electric cars. Compared to the major indexes their loses have been relatively modest. The threat is rising bond yields will steer away income investors to bonds and there are legitimate questions about electric car affordability and batteries.
I do agree diversification and having some liquidity to lessen the downside and buy dips once a floor has been established, is wise.

 

[CTBasketball]

Sorry, but I don't believe you can do it any better than anyone else over the long-term.

You can tell when stocks are oversold, undersold, how it’s momentum is. You can key that in with key price levels to get a good idea of when things will re-test resistances or dip down to supports.

 

[JohnFSilver]

You can tell when stocks are oversold, undersold, how it’s momentum is. You can key that in with key price levels to get a good idea of when things will re-test resistances or dip down to supports.

Traders are pretty funny. They act like geniuses when they make a bundle, but when their off always someone to blame. I worked on an IR advisory firm after I left journalism and the buy side All think they have magic sauce, and the sell side is a bunch of flashy sales paraphenalia .

No one can time the market.

 

[I Bleed Blue]

Scared money don’t make money

 

[CTBasketball]

Traders are pretty funny. They act like geniuses when they make a bundle, but when their off always someone to blame. I worked on an IR advisory firm after I left journalism and the buy side All think they have magic sauce, and the sell side is a bunch of flashy sales paraphenalia .

No one can time the market.

I just follow what I think will happen in the next 3-6 months, look at trends and historical data, then make an assessment on the stocks I pick. Not trying to be a genius.

95% of people buy stocks because “someone smart said to” or “I like that company” but have no idea what they’re doing.

 

[husky429]

I just follow what I think will happen in the next 3-6 months, look at trends and historical data, then make an assessment on the stocks I pick. Not trying to be a genius.

95% of people buy stocks because “someone smart said to” or “I like that company” but have no idea what they’re doing.

I'm confused what you think "timing the market" is, if you don't think this is timing the market. Genuine question... not trying to be snarky. In my world, this is abput as close to a dictionary definition of someone who "times the market" as I could imagine.

Not timing the market is people who DCA, or invest every January 1st or something. The boglehead folks.

 

[uconndogs]

Assumed in your post is a World of absolutes, fully invested /zero invested. Personally, I don’t invest in Crypto because I don’t understand it. However, in the World of stocks, bonds, cash and commodities; I regularly adjust my allocations. Some plays have historically performed better under certain macro conditions. Principles such as don’t fight the Federal Reserve have been proven wise over time. When the money supply was expanded 20% through monetary and fiscal policies, stocks tend to go up in the short run. But then, too many dollars chasing too few goods causes inflation.
Sure, you stay invested in things you feel won’t do well in the short term because you could be wrong, but perhaps you reduce the allocation to that sector.
For example, Ultilities to me have a current appeal due to dividend income and the longer term public policy to use electric cars. Compared to the major indexes their loses have been relatively modest. The threat is rising bond yields will steer away income investors to bonds and there are legitimate questions about electric car affordability and batteries.
I do agree diversification and having some liquidity to lessen the downside and buy dips once a floor has been established, is wise.

Nothing is absolute. That said, changing allocations due to short-term market conditions is just another way to say timing the market.

 

[uconndogs]

Assumed in your post is a World of absolutes, fully invested /zero invested.

Oh..........and no, that's not my assumption. In fact, it's exactly the opposite. It's a consistent investment strategy including risk on over the long term.

 

[I Bleed Blue]

Nothing is absolute. That said, changing allocations due to short-term market conditions is just another way to say timing the market.

I don’t know if I fully agree with that one. I increased my DCA weekly contributions into my brokerage this year with my raise plus I’m buying the dip. And it keeps on dipping. I increased it again a couple weeks ago before this recent rate hike.

 

[uconndogs]

I don’t know if I fully agree with that one. I increased my DCA weekly contributions into my brokerage this year with my raise plus I’m buying the dip. And it keeps on dipping. I increased it again a couple weeks ago before this recent rate hike.

If I understand you correctly I don't think your timing the market. Sounds more like dollar-cost-averaging presumably with a long-term investment perspective.

 

[Chief00]

Nothing is absolute. That said, changing allocations due to short-term market conditions is just another way to say timing the market.

I view it as managing risk and opportunities. Remember, $100 goes up 50% and you got $150, then it goes down 50% and you have $75.

 

[Chief00]

I don’t know if I fully agree with that one. I increased my DCA weekly contributions into my brokerage this year with my raise plus I’m buying the dip. And it keeps on dipping. I increased it again a couple weeks ago before this recent rate hike.

That seems smart to me the last few months.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Boeing below $130?

Buying more.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm confused what you think "timing the market" is, if you don't think this is timing the market. Genuine question... not trying to be snarky. In my world, this is abput as close to a dictionary definition of someone who "times the market" as I could imagine.

Not timing the market is people who DCA, or invest every January 1st or something. The boglehead folks.

There is a big difference in timing the market based on macro trends, and trying to pick the peaks and valleys of specific stocks. You can't do the latter, you can do the former with some reasonable degree of success.

The problem we have is that for 60 years into the 1990s things were pretty normal and predictable. Then we got the internet, which changed everything, both access to information, speculation on that information and the ability to trade online. That was disruptive as hell. Then we had almost 20 years of markets that were more volatile, but still with some patterns that could be predicted. Now we are back in uncharted waters again. The bond market isn't behaving rationally. The Treasury market was, until the last week or so, not behaving rationally. That spooked the ever loving crap out of everyone.

Between Covid, the Ukraine/Russia war, a major attempted shift in energy supply and fractures in the global supply chain, we've got the most dynamic change since the internet/information age. The risk/reward at this juncture is really high. You can't time this because it's unprecedented.

 

[uconndogs]

I view it as managing risk and opportunities. Remember, $100 goes up 50% and you got $150, then it goes down 50% and you have $75.

Well, we just view it differently. I get the math, but it's based on timing.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Fed will probably do two more rate increases and then pause into 2023. I’ve been averaging down periodically in some of my blue chippers and ETFs but I’m in it for the long haul with those and then I have a couple of flyers (DPLS, UAVS, VTGN, ABML) for the REALLY long haul.

T-Bills aren’t terrible to park money in at the moment for the short term. 3 month is 3.3ish YTM and 6 month around 3.8

“We want to buy good companies when they’re on the operating table”. - Uncle Warren Buffett

 

[huskyinfl]

DCA into the VHT, VOO+ VTI , VGT but also gambling on MSOS - multi state operators of the big weed stocks.

 

[B1GEast]

Boeing below $130?

Buying more.

Lockheed Martin is a better long term play, it's expensive, but the F35 program and the new Korean fighter program will continue to provide profit.

Boeing's experiencing issues with delayed dream liner delivers and 737 groundings. The Apache is being replaced and Boeing is not sure to win the next generation attack copter.

I like BA, but I would not be surprised if it drops a bit more then flattens for a while. Just my 2 cents

 

[Chin Diesel]

Lockheed Martin is a better long term play, it's expensive, but the F35 program and the new Korean fighter program will continue to provide profit.

Boeing's experiencing issues with delayed dream liner delivers and 737 groundings. The Apache is being replaced and Boeing is not sure to win the next generation attack copter.

I like BA, but I would not be surprised if it drops a bit more then flattens for a while. Just my 2 cents

Yeah, Boeing's commercial siding is a major drag bit I like it for a nice turnaround in a year or two.

For pure defense Northrop Grumman has done me well. Used to have Lockheed stock but swapped it for Northrop.