OT: Stock trading | Page 162 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

Unfortunately, we are moving to new lows and each time the lows are lower. Be careful my friends. With our dwindling emergency energy reserves, we have less cushion for the likely energy shocks coming this winter. Not the time to be aggressive. First rule of investing, materially protect your principle. There will be better economic environments to make money down the road.
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Now that inflation has been reported. Over-all, 3rd quarter earnings growth has been significantly revised down since July and earnings now will be the short term catalyst. This trend will more likely excelerate downward than stabilize or reverse over the next 2 months.
 
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S&P500 down 21% YTD and 120 points before testing new lows for the year. That will likely come during 3rd quarter earnings and forecasts. It is ugly out there, be careful investing for awhile. I do think the next wipeout will be the floor with opportunities.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
About time for a correction. The market has gone almost straight up since 2009. In bought the TZA at (which shorts the Russell) 15 quite a while ago and plan on holding it for the foreseeable future.
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When did you get that at 15?
 
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Unfortunately, as I feared, the S&P500 has retested a new low for the year. The lows just keep getting lower as the year progresses. 3Q Earnings are going to be generally brutal, so more pain before gain. Continue to be careful out there. Perhaps, the bond market will eventually turn and lead us into something good, but not for awhile.
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Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox
 
uconndogs said:
Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox
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Timing it isn’t really ideal. It’s more of using technical analysis to time when it will pull back or run up.

And maybe a little current events and what’s going on in the world too.
 
CTBasketball said:
Timing it isn’t really ideal. It’s more of using technical analysis to time when it will pull back or run up.

And maybe a little current events and what’s going on in the world too.
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Sorry, but I don't believe you can do it any better than anyone else over the long-term.
 
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uconndogs said:
Stepping onto the soapbox.........

Trying to time the market is fools gold. You may get lucky once in a while, but more often than not you will pay a price. I fear that many who have been on this thread over the last 2-2.5 years and were highly concentrated in crypto, tech and meme stocks on daily trades are in a pretty bad place. History would suggest this is a correction and for those holding steady with the right diversification and liquidity all should be fine.

..........Stepping off of the soapbox
Expand ...
Assumed in your post is a World of absolutes, fully invested /zero invested. Personally, I don’t invest in Crypto because I don’t understand it. However, in the World of stocks, bonds, cash and commodities; I regularly adjust my allocations. Some plays have historically performed better under certain macro conditions. Principles such as don’t fight the Federal Reserve have been proven wise over time. When the money supply was expanded 20% through monetary and fiscal policies, stocks tend to go up in the short run. But then, too many dollars chasing too few goods causes inflation.
Sure, you stay invested in things you feel won’t do well in the short term because you could be wrong, but perhaps you reduce the allocation to that sector.
For example, Ultilities to me have a current appeal due to dividend income and the longer term public policy to use electric cars. Compared to the major indexes their loses have been relatively modest. The threat is rising bond yields will steer away income investors to bonds and there are legitimate questions about electric car affordability and batteries.
I do agree diversification and having some liquidity to lessen the downside and buy dips once a floor has been established, is wise.
 
uconndogs said:
Sorry, but I don't believe you can do it any better than anyone else over the long-term.
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You can tell when stocks are oversold, undersold, how it’s momentum is. You can key that in with key price levels to get a good idea of when things will re-test resistances or dip down to supports.
 
CTBasketball said:
You can tell when stocks are oversold, undersold, how it’s momentum is. You can key that in with key price levels to get a good idea of when things will re-test resistances or dip down to supports.
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Traders are pretty funny. They act like geniuses when they make a bundle, but when their off always someone to blame. I worked on an IR advisory firm after I left journalism and the buy side All think they have magic sauce, and the sell side is a bunch of flashy sales paraphenalia .

No one can time the market.
 
JohnFSilver said:
Traders are pretty funny. They act like geniuses when they make a bundle, but when their off always someone to blame. I worked on an IR advisory firm after I left journalism and the buy side All think they have magic sauce, and the sell side is a bunch of flashy sales paraphenalia .

No one can time the market.
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I just follow what I think will happen in the next 3-6 months, look at trends and historical data, then make an assessment on the stocks I pick. Not trying to be a genius.

95% of people buy stocks because “someone smart said to” or “I like that company” but have no idea what they’re doing.
 
CTBasketball said:
I just follow what I think will happen in the next 3-6 months, look at trends and historical data, then make an assessment on the stocks I pick. Not trying to be a genius.

95% of people buy stocks because “someone smart said to” or “I like that company” but have no idea what they’re doing.
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I'm confused what you think "timing the market" is, if you don't think this is timing the market. Genuine question... not trying to be snarky. In my world, this is abput as close to a dictionary definition of someone who "times the market" as I could imagine.

Not timing the market is people who DCA, or invest every January 1st or something. The boglehead folks.
 
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Chief00 said:
Assumed in your post is a World of absolutes, fully invested /zero invested. Personally, I don’t invest in Crypto because I don’t understand it. However, in the World of stocks, bonds, cash and commodities; I regularly adjust my allocations. Some plays have historically performed better under certain macro conditions. Principles such as don’t fight the Federal Reserve have been proven wise over time. When the money supply was expanded 20% through monetary and fiscal policies, stocks tend to go up in the short run. But then, too many dollars chasing too few goods causes inflation.
Sure, you stay invested in things you feel won’t do well in the short term because you could be wrong, but perhaps you reduce the allocation to that sector.
For example, Ultilities to me have a current appeal due to dividend income and the longer term public policy to use electric cars. Compared to the major indexes their loses have been relatively modest. The threat is rising bond yields will steer away income investors to bonds and there are legitimate questions about electric car affordability and batteries.
I do agree diversification and having some liquidity to lessen the downside and buy dips once a floor has been established, is wise.
Expand ...

Nothing is absolute. That said, changing allocations due to short-term market conditions is just another way to say timing the market.
 
Chief00 said:
Assumed in your post is a World of absolutes, fully invested /zero invested.
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Oh..........and no, that's not my assumption. In fact, it's exactly the opposite. It's a consistent investment strategy including risk on over the long term.
 
uconndogs said:
Nothing is absolute. That said, changing allocations due to short-term market conditions is just another way to say timing the market.
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I don’t know if I fully agree with that one. I increased my DCA weekly contributions into my brokerage this year with my raise plus I’m buying the dip. And it keeps on dipping. I increased it again a couple weeks ago before this recent rate hike.
 
I Bleed Blue said:
I don’t know if I fully agree with that one. I increased my DCA weekly contributions into my brokerage this year with my raise plus I’m buying the dip. And it keeps on dipping. I increased it again a couple weeks ago before this recent rate hike.
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If I understand you correctly I don't think your timing the market. Sounds more like dollar-cost-averaging presumably with a long-term investment perspective.
 
uconndogs said:
Nothing is absolute. That said, changing allocations due to short-term market conditions is just another way to say timing the market.
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I view it as managing risk and opportunities. Remember, $100 goes up 50% and you got $150, then it goes down 50% and you have $75.
 
I Bleed Blue said:
I don’t know if I fully agree with that one. I increased my DCA weekly contributions into my brokerage this year with my raise plus I’m buying the dip. And it keeps on dipping. I increased it again a couple weeks ago before this recent rate hike.
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That seems smart to me the last few months.
 
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