OT: Stock trading | Page 164 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

CONN78SEJ said:
No, of course not. Anyone buying stocks now long term (more than 6months) is taking a huge risk. I’m heavily invested now in the TZA and the FAZ (to a lesser extent).
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you wouldn't want to "invest" (i.e. hold) either of those.
 
Hurleyman216 said:
I don’t see this as a dead cat bounce. It’s looking more and more likely that we may be able to avoid a deep recession and we have inflation under control. The gravy train is over for some middle managers at large cap high growth tech stocks (Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.), but overall the economy is very strong. The market could see another 15-20% move up in the next few months but I expect it may cool a bit this summer before taking off again. Now is the time to get back in if you’ve been waiting.
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As I said a while back it's hard to have a recession with the labor market so strong. Everyone who predicted doom and gloom months ago and had all kinds of expert opinions about the Fed being late to the game was basically wrong.
 
casual-yardin said:
As I said a while back it's hard to have a recession with the labor market so strong. Everyone who predicted doom and gloom months ago and had all kinds of expert opinions about the Fed being late to the game was basically wrong.
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The Fed was way late and totally blew it. That wasn't wrong. They have now already over-corrected and the only reason a recession is possible is because they are so thick headed and ham handed. They have no patience. Their tools aren't meant to cause rapid changes.

Monetary policy/spending plus war and covid supply chain issues and energy and food supply issues are wildly inflationary. But there are other things going on that are deflationary. If interest rates keep rising they are going to trigger a deflationary spiral and a lot of problems. Unemployment is only low because labor participation is awful.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
The Fed was way late and totally blew it. That wasn't wrong. They have now already over-corrected and the only reason a recession is possible is because they are so thick headed and ham handed. They have no patience. Their tools aren't meant to cause rapid changes.

Monetary policy/spending plus war and covid supply chain issues and energy and food supply issues are wildly inflationary. But there are other things going on that are deflationary. If interest rates keep rising they are going to trigger a deflationary spiral and a lot of problems. Unemployment is only low because labor participation is awful.
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'That may not change. COVID may have convinced a large number of the last of the boomers to retire. I'm not sure what that would do to the market, but my guess is they'd be taking less risk from now on.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Unemployment is only low because labor participation is awful.
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www.bls.gov

Civilian labor force participation rate

www.bls.gov www.bls.gov

1675806495274.png
 
HuskyHawk said:
Yeah, it's coming back because people started running out of money, probably in part due to inflation. The economists I saw said it wasn't really retirement, but many were younger people (mostly white males) just choosing the increased unemployment benefits and other assistance over going back to work.
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'Pandemic unemployment benefits ended.
 
HuskyHawk said:
The Fed was way late and totally blew it. That wasn't wrong. They have now already over-corrected and the only reason a recession is possible is because they are so thick headed and ham handed. They have no patience. Their tools aren't meant to cause rapid changes.

Monetary policy/spending plus war and covid supply chain issues and energy and food supply issues are wildly inflationary. But there are other things going on that are deflationary. If interest rates keep rising they are going to trigger a deflationary spiral and a lot of problems. Unemployment is only low because labor participation is awful.
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It's so predictable when people bring up the participation rate to try and discredit the UE rate, almost as if they have been instructed to do so. The LFPR has been declining for ~20 years primarily due to demographics.
 
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CONN78SEJ said:
Are you afraid of a little leverage? I’ll get out when you and everyone else are running for the exits.
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LOL. They are built and intended for short term holds, typically daily (hence the name) . It's not just the leverage that's eating away at your capital.
 
casual-yardin said:
LOL. They are built and intended for short term holds, typically daily (hence the name) . It's not just the leverage that's eating away at your capital.
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You don’t know what you are talking about. I’ve been trading them for many many year. I hope you’re running for the exits now.
 
This. Because it tracks daily moves, your losses compound more quickly if you don't time the drop, which means you need a bigger drop in the underlying index just to get back to even.


casual-yardin said:
LOL. They are built and intended for short term holds, typically daily (hence the name) . It's not just the leverage that's eating away at your capital.
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Excalibur said:
This. Because it tracks daily moves, your losses compound more quickly if you don't time the drop, which means you need a bigger drop in the underlying index just to get back to even.
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I bought both many years ago at around $10 or $11 and sold both a a couple years later just north of $140. If the market smells of being tremendously over bought, like now, then your risk is exceedingly small.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
I bought both many years ago at around $10 or $11 and sold both a a couple years later just north of $140. If the market smells of being tremendously over bought, like now, then your risk is exceedingly small.
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SQQQ is down about 10% over the last year, 30% over the last two. It has also effected two reverse splits in the last five years.

So, you didn't do what you say you did.
 
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casual-yardin said:
It's so predictable when people bring up the participation rate to try and discredit the UE rate, almost as if they have been instructed to do so. The LFPR has been declining for ~20 years primarily due to demographics.
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Look at the chart in this thread. From about 2015 to 2020 it was trending up, because the full Millennial generation hit working age. Then it crashed. Now it is ticking back up but hasn't caught up to 2015, let alone 2019. None of that is demographics. The LFPR should be trending up from a demographic perspective.
 
Excalibur said:
SQQQ is down about 10% over the last year, 30% over the last two. It has also effected two reverse splits in the last five years.

So, you didn't do what you say you did.
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I am long one stock which I own a boatload of, and that is ETN which is having a great day. At the same time, the TZA is up today, but is still very cheap in my view compared to what it was in April of 2020 when I sold it and the FAZ. I just bought in again recently.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Look at the chart in this thread. From about 2015 to 2020 it was trending up, because the full Millennial generation hit working age. Then it crashed. Now it is ticking back up but hasn't caught up to 2015, let alone 2019. None of that is demographics. The LFPR should be trending up from a demographic perspective.
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Cool, doesn't change the fact that an aging population (still accelerating) is the primary driver of the lower LFPR. This is widely understood. We can quibble about a few points up or down all day.
 
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Dogdeacon said:
What makes you think that stock is going to light up vs going to pot?
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It wasn't my choice. But I was at my local brewery the other day, talking to the owner, as the land adjacent to his business and in about 10 acres behind it is all being developed, and all of it is a grow facility. The third one in town. So, as a REIT, it may be one of the very few commercial real estate areas that is growing.
 
HuskyHawk said:
It wasn't my choice. But I was at my local brewery the other day, talking to the owner, as the land adjacent to his business and in about 10 acres behind it is all being developed, and all of it is a grow facility. The third one in town. So, as a REIT, it may be one of the very few commercial real estate areas that is growing.
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It does seem like a great bet as long as they stay small. Big banks institutions won’t touch cannabis until it is federally legal, risk of bottom dropping out. But the owners that can/will accept pot uses get a premium for it. So They can create value bc pot pays really high rents.
 
HuskyHawk said:
That’s pretty cool. Based on what’s being built two miles from me it makes sense. Yes, I can trade it on Fidelity.
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How long does it take Fidelity to clear a deposit? I move the money five days ago and it's still not available to trade. Stock is up 6% in the past five days.
 
temery said:
How long does it take Fidelity to clear a deposit? I move the money five days ago and it's still not available to trade. Stock is up 6% in the past five days.
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I don’t know but account generation usually takes time. My deposits hit pretty quickly.
 
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