OT PGA Championship

[UConn Esq]

I'd think somewhere around -4.

It is L O N G. Bunch of Par 4's over 500. Course is wet and drives won't roll out on fairway. Lots of changes in elevation from fairway to greens.

Greens aren't particularly large and they aren't overly undulated.

Par isn't a hard score, birdie is really tough. Pressed to make birdie? Extremely tough.

Long hitters are going to be hitting 5-7 irons to greens and on several of them you have a partially blind shot to the green. Plenty of approach shots will be 20' from the pin
Even the pros don't make a bunch of birdies from that distance.
As the course dries out over the weekend balls will roll out on fairway and make their way in to the rough. Any approach to the green from the rough is going to be tough to hold the green.

Great summary here. You really need to be able to bomb drives but keep them straight. Guys that can really shape long drives have the advantage. Greens aren’t at the level of difficulty as say, Augusta, but the course gets revenge with difficult pin placement requiring lots of accuracy on those approaches.

Agree with you again in that you play for par here and pick your spots otherwise carefully. Patience will be a virtue this weekend and anyone that can hold it under par will be in contention.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

He (Deveraux) did work at Bethpage but there are multiple courses there. Thought Tillinghast did Black.

He did the Green. Also Congressional Blue which has hosted majors rebuilt by Rees Jones.

 

[Danzz]

He (Deveraux) did work at Bethpage but there are multiple courses there. Thought Tillinghast did Black.

I played the blue course. No carts are allowed on the black. Bethpage is the most obnoxious course in the world.

 

[whaler11]

I played the blue course. No carts are allowed on the black. Bethpage is the most obnoxious course in the world.

Augusta? That’s why it’s fun to watch.

 

[Tuna]

So I don't know a lot about the Bethpage Black course. I can look up that the last two US Opens were won with scores of -3 and -4 but that doesn't tell me too much considering the last two Barclays were won with scores of -10 and -9.

How hard is the course? How have they set it up? What can we expect the scores to be? I have absolutely no idea if this going to be close to par or 10 under. Googling really doesn't help with these questions.

They played the Barclays at par 71 so that’s 4 strokes right there.

 

[Danzz]

Augusta? That’s why it’s fun to watch.

Those people sleep in their cars overnight to get weekend tee times which may account for their attitudes. Plus they are New Yokers.

 

[Robertelamin]

Koepka set the course record today.

 

[Deepster]

Koepka who couldn't putt to close it out at the masters? I know he won last year but I don't see it for him this year.

Cool. Usually I'm the one that is this far off on predictions. Thanks for eating your shoe on this one, polycom.

 

[polycom]

Cool. Usually I'm the one that is this far off on predictions. Thanks for eating your shoe on this one, polycom.

Lol we award championships on Thursday? Molinari would like a word with you.

 

[jleves]

Koepka did not disappoint. Imagine shooting a 67 (FleetwoodMac) and being 4 shots back. That's gotta feel like a gut punch. Yes, I realize Danny Lee is just one back, but I don't give a lot of hope to the 119th player keeping that kind of scoring up. 16 players under par.

The first guys going out tomorrow may have a little advantage with little wind for an hour or so, but it's also going to be cold. Most everyone will have to deal with 10+mph winds for the entire round and the last guys will get some rain but that could actually be helpful letting them hold the greens a little better. The wind will be the big story tomorrow keeping anyone from mid 60s. A score of 68 will be excellent. Anyone breaking par will be moving well up. I have Koepka going 69 and having a 4+ shot lead.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Koepka did not disappoint. Imagine shooting a 67 (FleetwoodMac) and being 4 shots back. That's gotta feel like a gut punch. Yes, I realize Danny Lee is just one back, but I don't give a lot of hope to the 119th player keeping that kind of scoring up. 16 players under par.

The first guys going out tomorrow may have a little advantage with little wind for an hour or so, but it's also going to be cold. Most everyone will have to deal with 10+mph winds for the entire round and the last guys will get some rain but that could actually be helpful letting them hold the greens a little better. The wind will be the big story tomorrow keeping anyone from mid 60s. A score of 68 will be excellent. Anyone breaking par will be moving well up. I have Koepka going 69 and having a 4+ shot lead.

Koepka was obviously unreal. But, anyone par or better today still has a chance. It's looking like my -4 prediction is going to get stomped but I still think the winner doesn't shoot better than -2 combined on Saturday and Sunday. Once the course dries out, the PGA won't have to trick out the course to make par a really good score.

 

[Deepster]

Lol we award championships on Thursday? Molinari would like a word with you.

I’ll bet you 100.00 right now. I get Koepka, you get the field. You in?

 

[jleves]

I’ll bet you 100.00 right now. I get Koepka, you get the field. You in?

Wow - that's bold. And somehow I wouldn't take the bet.

 

[whaler11]

I’ll bet you 100.00 right now. I get Koepka, you get the field. You in?

Even money? I’ll do it.

 

[uconnfan68]

I played the blue course. No carts are allowed on the black. Bethpage is the most obnoxious course in the world.

I lived about 5 miles away, from age 2-7. Wish I had a clue about it 40 years ago. Would have liked a test on the Black, when I could easily walk and carry. Played the West coast muni version, Torrey South, many times.

 

[jleves]

Even money? I’ll do it.

I think you have about a 75% chance of losing.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Something to chew on.

Koepka shot a -7 and made par on both Par 5's today.

He birdied two of the Par 3's.

Granted the course is known for it's meaty Par 4's but birdieing two Par 3's in a major means your irons are dialed in for distance control, flight and spin.

 

[whaler11]

I think you have about a 75% chance of losing.

Then why does Koepka pay 5/4 everywhere? If you think he has a 75% chance to win you should clean up?

 

[jleves]

Then why does Koepka pay 5/4 everywhere? If you think he has a 75% chance to win you should clean up?

Well I never bet on sports because I've learned my heart is stronger than my brain.

As the bet you are suggesting, I would never take either side, My heart says Koepka dominates, my head says there's too much golf to be played.

If someone put a gun to my head, I would take Koepka vs the field at this point.

 

[whaler11]

Well I never bet on sports because I've learned my heart is stronger than my brain.

As the bet you are suggesting, I would never take either side, My heart says Koepka dominates, my head says there's too much golf to be played.

If someone put a gun to my head, I would take Koepka vs the field at this point.

So is Deep going to bet me $100 at even money or not? He may have me blocked because I don’t hate the Yard Goats enough?

 

[polycom]

So is Deep going to bet me $100 at even money or not? He may have me blocked because I don’t hate the Yard Goats enough?

Don’t try to take my free money

 

[polycom]

I’ll bet you 100.00 right now. I get Koepka, you get the field. You in?

Yes I’m in.

 

[whaler11]

Don’t try to take my free money

It’s not free - it’s +EV but at $100... horray $15?

 

[mauconnfan]

I’ll bet you 100.00 right now. I get Koepka, you get the field. You in?

polycom and whaler are in Deep? I like the story line here for the BY, you in? LOL

 

[Deepster]

So is Deep going to bet me $100 at even money or not? He may have me blocked because I don’t hate the Yard Goats enough?

The bet is with Poly. He's the one that made the comment back, glad to see he put his money where his mouth is.