OT: Hurricane Irma

[Dove]

Cantore is in Miami (RIP Miami!!) and he poi ted out the numerous cranes atop the highrises. It takes 2 weeks to disassemble them. Weather forcasts can't help.

Watch those cranes.

 

[uconn_jack]

It is not a weather report. They said oceans will get warmer, glaciers will melt, land will be lost to the sea and storms will be more frequent and powerful. All have happened.

Few deny that the climate has generally warmed over the past 150 years (resulting in warmer oceans, some rise in sea level, and melting glaciers - although storm strength and frequency is questuonable.) But the models that have tried to tie this to anthropogenic CO2 and predict a runaway greenhouse effect with signifacant temp increases and catastrophic results have failed miserably, forcing "climate scientists" to change the goalposts every time we reach one of their prediction timeframes that has failed to validate their model.

 

[Paesano]

Wrong.

How many people here are actual scientists who understand the models and their variables?

*raises hand*

Of those people, how many have written and used complex computer models?

*raises hand*

He is not wrong.

 

[MadDogRevival]

but in increase in severe weather events, maintained over years is proof toward cc.

So this is what I'm talking about here. First, let me be clear, I think that the existing science supports the null hypothesis that human activity can and is changing the climate. The question is, really, "how much," and I'm not willing to go nearly as far as many on the activist side of the issue, particularly given some glaring scientific sins that have occurred in that community (destruction of original data and conspiring to prevent publication of contrary work, to name two). They plainly have an agenda, and, while I generally support the goal of substantially reducing FF use, I don't support fraud to get to the goal.

But look what you did - your point is this . . .
An increase in "severe" weather, sustained over time,
is proof
that climate change is occurring.

But, of course, an increase in severe weather over time IS, in fact, a change in the climate. What you're saying is that a change in the climate is proof that the climate is changing. We agree!

But that's completely unrelated to the actual question being debated, which is "to what extent are humans causing it?"

The climate has been changing, constantly, for the life of the planet. The problem, scientifically, is that it's extremely difficult to determine the cause, given that there are innumerable inputs into the climate, with interrelations among them not fully understood.

Definitely needs more study, but from scientists without an agenda for either side - I trust the Exon funded scientists about as much as I trust the science activists who used algorithms to change original weather station data to produce "adjusted" data, and then destroyed the original data, which cannot be determined by reversing the algorithm. It's scientific heresy, in my view, to destroy original data, ever, and I would never trust a scientist who would do such a thing.
I've always been leery of scientists who are experimenting or researching for the purpose of proving a point in which they religiously believe. In psychology and sociology, they run the mad house. In the hard sciences, not so much, with the exception of climate, where there are many scientists who are fanatically anti-FF.

 

[MadDogRevival]

Of those people, how many have written and used complex computer models?

I'm sure somebody could write a "complex computer model" tomorrow that will show the Browns winning the Super Bowl.
The phrase "complex computer model" is farcical, and appears intended more to impress the uneducated than to describe the underlying object, which is simply a set of fixed instructions written by people who are already aware of the inputs that will be fed to the instructions.

It's laughable, really, when you consider that we don't even understand the impact of the innumerable inputs into weather and climate.

 

[huskyinfl]

How many people here are actual scientists who understand the models and their variables?

*raises hand*

Of those people, how many have written and used complex computer models?

*raises hand*

He is not wrong.

Zero correct predictions in 30 years. You are going to deny science in your attempt to prove science?

Who has a Master's degree from USF based on Global Climate

*Raises hand*

Sit down.

I'm in Venice and about to meet this thing head on so not really interested in the arm chair qb.

 

[MadDogRevival]

[Referencing this Thread]
And . . . . . . . . . . it's gone.

 

[MadDogRevival]

And I don't trust any scientist who would use the word "denier." That's a word that politicians and historians use to try to prevent debate about whatever it is they hold dear.

In science, if you're right, you win on the data and its application and you don't need to resort to cheap semantics. Darwin never needed to call the religious zealots "evolution deniers."

 

[UConnRock]

Accurate historical temperature reading began as the earth was coming out of the little-ice age after the less accurately documented medieval warm period. The little ice age went from the 1400s into the 1800s. Temps have been warming. Some is undoubtedly due to man's activities. Some is natural.

 

[Jerry1714]

Zero correct predictions in 30 years. You are going to deny science in your attempt to prove science?

Who has a Master's degree from USF based on Global Climate

*Raises hand*

Sit down.

I'm in Venice and about to meet this thing head on so not really interested in the arm chair qb.

I believe he was actually agreeing with you and saying you are not wrong.

 

[TampaHusky78]

Wrong.

Loved when algore changed it to "climate change" when he couldn't get his desired results.

A heads I win, tails you lose proposition and a total joke.

We are give ourselves as humans way too much credit for changing anything one iota.

It is all about the sun and it's activities. Not us.

And from that great and very rich scientist algore:

Gore's Crapola Predictions Fall Flat

Ten years after Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" guilt/fear producing predictions, let's close by examining just how accurate his "science" proved to be on his way to the bank.

1. Rising Sea Levels—inaccurate and misleading. Al was even discovered purchasing a beachfront mansion!

2. Increased Tornadoes—declining for decades.

3. New Ice Age in Europe—they've been spared; it never happened.

4. South Sahara Drying Up—completely untrue.

5. Massive Flooding in China and India—again, didn't happen.

6. Melting Arctic—false—2015 represents the largest refreezing in years.

7. Polar Bear Extinction—actually they are increasing!

8. Temperature Increases Due to CO2—no significant rising for over 18 years

9. Katrina a Foreshadow of the Future—false—past 10 years, no F3 hurricanes; "longest drought ever!"

10. The Earth Would be in a "True Planetary Emergency" Within a Decade Unless Drastic Action Taken to Reduce Greenhouse Gasses—never happened.

 

[UConNick]

You guys can take this stuff to the Cesspool Irma thread. Here, I'd just like to get updates from any Husky fan that is facing down this storm. Even though it's weakened a 3 can do signifiant damage (and it's incredibly likely the warm water in front of it brings it back to a strong 4 before landfall).

 

[sledog]

The in-laws bailed from coastal Naples at noon today to go inland ~5 miles to a friend's place.: 10 people, 3 cats and a dog, along with lots of chips and grappa, sould make it interesting. With all those arroyas carving the inland landscape, not sure that's going to get them away from the tide / storm swell. But they are near to one of their favorite restaurants (not so hot) !!!!! If not a Holiday Inn. oui!

 

[Leebo]

9. Katrina a Foreshadow of the Future—false—past 10 years, no F3 hurricanes; "longest drought ever!"

Okay, I guess that confirms it. He thinks tropical cyclones that don't don't make landfall in the United States don't exist.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Dove]

These people forgot what Thailand was like? INCOMING!!!!!!!!!!

 

[UConNick]

It's really an incredible event. Usually, water recedes like that when a tsunami is incoming. But in this case, it's the strong storm pulling the water away. The storm surge is gonna be MASSIVE and hit most of Florida's coasts. All that water has to come from somewhere, and this is the answer.

 

[uconn_jack]

Zero correct predictions in 30 years. You are going to deny science in your attempt to prove science?

Who has a Master's degree from USF based on Global Climate

*Raises hand*

Sit down.

I'm in Venice and about to meet this thing head on so not really interested in the arm chair qb.

*Raises Hand*

I am a scientist, hydrogeologist, and use groundwater modeling all the time to evaluate groundwater flow dynamics and geochemical reactions to try and predict contaminated groundwater plume migration and attenuation.

They are a useful tool, but they do not provide the answers. They only help you guess what the answers might be, and you use them to design ACTUAL scientific data collection. And I'll tell you, much of the time the models are way off of real world conditions, and the system we are trying to model is far less complex and better understood than climate.

The EPA or DEP don't let us use modelling data to demonstrate environmental compliance, it has to be supported by data that validates the model. However, for some reason, climate modelling results are accepted as reality of what will likely happen despite a lack of sufficient actual data to support it, if not observations that are in opposition to their predictions.

So you do not convince me that modelling results are proof of "climate change", or even accurately predicting actual climate change, just because you have a master's "based on global climate" (and what does that even mean, are you a climatologist?)

 

[Hankster]

Excellent read from all. All the Florida Yarders are in my thoughts and prayers. My son is in Savannah. He decided to wait it out. Even his girlfriend said lets visit your folks in PA. I agreed. However, stupidity overcame smarts in this situation. Although the projected course seemed to venture west, it still shows Northeast Georgia and South Carolina is going to get something. I have visited Savannah many times. It is a gorgeous day, all of a sudden a 10 minute thunderstorm, then
sun only to leave the streets completely flooded. I cannot imagine what it will look like after this monsoon.

 

[David 76]

Few deny that the climate has generally warmed over the past 150 years (resulting in warmer oceans, some rise in sea level, and melting glaciers - although storm strength and frequency is questuonable.) But the models that have tried to tie this to anthropogenic CO2 and predict a runaway greenhouse effect with signifacant temp increases and catastrophic results have failed
miserably, forcing "climate scientists" to change the goalposts every time we reach one of their prediction timeframes that has failed to validate their model.

So say a handful of scientists who happen to get paid by companies that create CO2.
But enough. Take it to the cesspool. This is about Irma.

 

[TampaHusky78]

And I don't trust any scientist who would use the word "denier." That's a word that politicians and historians use to try to prevent debate about whatever it is they hold dear.

In science, if you're right, you win on the data and its application and you don't need to resort to cheap semantics. Darwin never needed to call the religious zealots "evolution deniers."

As always, follow the money. The bigger the "crisis", the more grants they can receive.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[billybud]

It's gonna be bleak for a while here in Tallahassee...my son has done the ladder work boarding up my windows...but we expect to be without power for a long time...no water, lights...and limited ability to travel (when Kate hit with 85 mph winds) we could'nt leave the house for days because our exit street was blocked by trees.

We have a had a nice "trough" of few Florida landfalls since Charley, Jeanne, et al tore up the state in 2005....but every puppy has their day and every dog has to pay.

 

[Fishy]

Hang in there - hopefully, this thing loses its mojo before it gets to you.

There are a bunch of webcams online in the Keys and southern Florida. So far, it doesn't look awful there.