OT: Hurricane Irma | Page 2 | The Boneyard

OT: Hurricane Irma

Stressful when you have family down there. I got my step brother/mother a flight out of Orlando tonight. They have a small dog, but haven't been able to find a travel bag within an hour of Orlando. They bought a nice duffle and are going to cut some holes in it. Even more frustrating than not finding a bag (supply and demand is what it is) is that they can't get anyone from United to say if the bag situation is okay or not. My step brother has a friend nearby that would watch the dog if she isn't allowed to fly, but that's hard to do if United only tells him the bag isn't acceptable when boarding.

I told him to stay calm and record them if they try to tell him no. Explain that this isn't a perfect situation, but everyone is just trying to get safe, and he has the dog fully contained (and with a vinyl bottom to protect the plane). Ask if they are really going to make him, his mom, and their blind dachshund wait out the storm without a place to stay (since they drove to Orlando) and tell them he is going to post this on every social media and news sight he can find.

If anyone is in Orlando and has an extra dog bag for a 15 pound dog, let me know!

UPDATE: THE DOG IS ON THE PLANE. They questioned the bag, but he pulled the "blind dog on one of the last flights out" card.
 
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My father-in-law is in Naples, 3 blocks from the beach, and in De Nile (gonna get wet - or worse).
 
I'm not a violent guy, but every time I hear someone express joy over the hurricane damage (be it Harvey or Irma) due to the political views of the people who live in those regions, it takes every ounce of restraint in me not to knock their teeth out.
 
A weather guy in Ft Lauderdale said he thinks many places in Florida will be unrecognizable once Irma blows by.
 
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Unfortunately we're on a canal near the mouth of Chattahoochee river in Ft Myers. And it looks like we're stuck here . We may try to leave tomorrow afternoon but the major worry at this point is getting stuck on a highway when the storm hits. There are people who evacuated to the west coast when the storm was going up the east coast and now they are trying to go east with all the people that live here , there's no point heading north, it's a mess. Anyway I will post updates when I can. I wish anyone in Florida luck cause it's not looking so good
 
huskyinfl said:
climate change data showing models for the next 100 years.
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Models. These "climate change" models haven't yet predicted anything right over the last 30 years, and you're worrying about what they are spitting out for the next 100? SMH.

Regardless, hope you and all the Husky Floridians stay safe!
 
TampaHusky78 said:
And how do you know that there will be a greater frequency? Before this year hurricane activity was nil.
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When people say stuff like this, it sure sounds like they're saying that tropical cyclones that don't make landfall in the United States don't exist. That's not really what they think is it?
 
UConniki said:
Unfortunately we're on a canal near the mouth of Chattahoochee river in Ft Myers. And it looks like we're stuck here . We may try to leave tomorrow afternoon but the major worry at this point is getting stuck on a highway when the storm hits. There are people who evacuated to the west coast when the storm was going up the east coast and now they are trying to go east with all the people that live here , there's no point heading north, it's a mess. Anyway I will post updates when I can. I wish anyone in Florida luck cause it's not looking so good
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My step mother's plan was to leave Palm Beach Cnty and stay with a cousin in Ft Myers. That was definitely a common move so I can imagine the mass exodus back. Good luck and I hope you and the other FL huskies will post an update on your safety when Irma is through.
 
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Here in Poincianna, Polk county, waiting for Irma. Expecting Cat 1 winds by Sunday night. We are expecting to loose power between Sunday night and Monday morning.

We are prepared as are our neighbors. Going to ride this one out. House is built to withstand 160 mph winds.

Sta safe out there.
 
huskyinfl said:
I have studied sea level rise maps and climate change data showing models for the next 100 years. Right in Tampa at USF, which by the way assumes their campus will be under water in the future. Past results do not dictate the future.
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Nor do climate change predictions.

Leebo said:
When people say stuff like this, it sure sounds like they're saying that tropical cyclones that don't make landfall in the United States don't exist. That's not really what they think is it?
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It was random when the storms were small or missed us, and it is random now that we have a large one hitting us. Time and chance happeneth to them all.
 
uconn_jack said:
Models. These "climate change" models haven't yet predicted anything right over the last 30 years, and you're worrying about what they are spitting out
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It is not a weather report. They said oceans will get warmer, glaciers will melt, land will be lost to the sea and storms will be more frequent and powerful. All have happened.
 
huskyinfl said:
I have studied sea level rise maps and climate change data showing models for the next 100 years.
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They can't predict the weather two months from now and climate prediction models in vogue at the end of last century, a mere 17 years ago, failed miserably to project the next 17 years.

Not that I think there is not a problem that needs to be reviewed, and not that I'm voicing any particular position on AGW or CC, but it's quite apparent to me that 100 year climate models are not helpful to the conversation.
 
Leebo said:
When people say stuff like this, it sure sounds like they're saying that tropical cyclones that don't make landfall in the United States don't exist. That's not really what they think is it?
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Who knows. Maybe they do. On the flip side, I distinctly recall the last time, a few years back, several hurricanes made landfall there were many vociferous AGW/CC activists arguing publicly that the hurricane activity was a direct result of AGW/CC. That's not really what they think, is it?
Point is, there seems to me to be plenty of hysteria, entrenchment, and unscientific rationalization on both sides of the issue.
 
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Yes, anyone who says there is causation from a particular weather event misses the point.
It being really cold out does not mean global warming is false. And a hurricane cannot be proof of cc.
That would be stupid.
You look at the trends: warmer, more unsettled, water rising, etc. They all support the Science
So Irma cannot be said to be caused by cc, but in increase in severe weather events, maintained over years is proof toward cc.
 
uconn_jack said:
Models. These "climate change" models haven't yet predicted anything right over the last 30 years, and you're worrying about what they are spitting out for the next 100? SMH.

Regardless, hope you and all the Husky Floridians stay safe!
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Wrong.
 
Cantore is in Miami (RIP Miami!!) and he poi ted out the numerous cranes atop the highrises. It takes 2 weeks to disassemble them. Weather forcasts can't help.

Watch those cranes.
 
David 76 said:
It is not a weather report. They said oceans will get warmer, glaciers will melt, land will be lost to the sea and storms will be more frequent and powerful. All have happened.
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Few deny that the climate has generally warmed over the past 150 years (resulting in warmer oceans, some rise in sea level, and melting glaciers - although storm strength and frequency is questuonable.) But the models that have tried to tie this to anthropogenic CO2 and predict a runaway greenhouse effect with signifacant temp increases and catastrophic results have failed miserably, forcing "climate scientists" to change the goalposts every time we reach one of their prediction timeframes that has failed to validate their model.
 
huskyinfl said:
Wrong.
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How many people here are actual scientists who understand the models and their variables?

*raises hand*

Of those people, how many have written and used complex computer models?

*raises hand*

He is not wrong.
 
David 76 said:
but in increase in severe weather events, maintained over years is proof toward cc.
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So this is what I'm talking about here. First, let me be clear, I think that the existing science supports the null hypothesis that human activity can and is changing the climate. The question is, really, "how much," and I'm not willing to go nearly as far as many on the activist side of the issue, particularly given some glaring scientific sins that have occurred in that community (destruction of original data and conspiring to prevent publication of contrary work, to name two). They plainly have an agenda, and, while I generally support the goal of substantially reducing FF use, I don't support fraud to get to the goal.

But look what you did - your point is this . . .
An increase in "severe" weather, sustained over time,
is proof
that climate change is occurring.

But, of course, an increase in severe weather over time IS, in fact, a change in the climate. What you're saying is that a change in the climate is proof that the climate is changing. We agree!

But that's completely unrelated to the actual question being debated, which is "to what extent are humans causing it?"

The climate has been changing, constantly, for the life of the planet. The problem, scientifically, is that it's extremely difficult to determine the cause, given that there are innumerable inputs into the climate, with interrelations among them not fully understood.

Definitely needs more study, but from scientists without an agenda for either side - I trust the Exon funded scientists about as much as I trust the science activists who used algorithms to change original weather station data to produce "adjusted" data, and then destroyed the original data, which cannot be determined by reversing the algorithm. It's scientific heresy, in my view, to destroy original data, ever, and I would never trust a scientist who would do such a thing.
I've always been leery of scientists who are experimenting or researching for the purpose of proving a point in which they religiously believe. In psychology and sociology, they run the mad house. In the hard sciences, not so much, with the exception of climate, where there are many scientists who are fanatically anti-FF.
 
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Paesano said:
Of those people, how many have written and used complex computer models?
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I'm sure somebody could write a "complex computer model" tomorrow that will show the Browns winning the Super Bowl.
The phrase "complex computer model" is farcical, and appears intended more to impress the uneducated than to describe the underlying object, which is simply a set of fixed instructions written by people who are already aware of the inputs that will be fed to the instructions.

It's laughable, really, when you consider that we don't even understand the impact of the innumerable inputs into weather and climate.
 
Paesano said:
How many people here are actual scientists who understand the models and their variables?

*raises hand*

Of those people, how many have written and used complex computer models?

*raises hand*

He is not wrong.
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Zero correct predictions in 30 years. You are going to deny science in your attempt to prove science?

Who has a Master's degree from USF based on Global Climate

*Raises hand*

Sit down.

I'm in Venice and about to meet this thing head on so not really interested in the arm chair qb.
 
And I don't trust any scientist who would use the word "denier." That's a word that politicians and historians use to try to prevent debate about whatever it is they hold dear.

In science, if you're right, you win on the data and its application and you don't need to resort to cheap semantics. Darwin never needed to call the religious zealots "evolution deniers."
 
Accurate historical temperature reading began as the earth was coming out of the little-ice age after the less accurately documented medieval warm period. The little ice age went from the 1400s into the 1800s. Temps have been warming. Some is undoubtedly due to man's activities. Some is natural.
 
huskyinfl said:
Zero correct predictions in 30 years. You are going to deny science in your attempt to prove science?

Who has a Master's degree from USF based on Global Climate

*Raises hand*

Sit down.

I'm in Venice and about to meet this thing head on so not really interested in the arm chair qb.
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I believe he was actually agreeing with you and saying you are not wrong.
 
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