Maybe. But I still think you can’t leave without a place to go. Nobody not named Notre Dame who has tried eventually gave it up. We will at the first rational opportunity.
Numerous ACC schools will have a place to go. UNC and UVA will have their pick of the SEC or Big Ten. There may be others that get invited to join those two conferences as well, depending on what happens with UNC and UVA (see below). The next most desireable remaining ACC programs will have major interest from the Big 12.
To me, the key for UConn and many other schools is whether UVA and UNC go to the SEC or Big Ten. What is likely best for UConn is those two schools choosing the Big Ten, and I think that as we approach 2029, the major elected officials in CT should reach out to their counterparts in VA and NC to explain why it is in their states' interests for their respective flagship schools to choose the Big Ten over the SEC.
If UVA and UNC choose the SEC, it is extremely unlikely that the Big Ten would invite VA Tech or NC St (for numerous reasons including lack of AAU membership). In other words, both VA Tech and NC St- each a major public university- would NOT get into one of the two superconferences. Additionally, it is not even clear whether those two schools would get into the Big 12, which is likely to become the clear-cut third best conference after the next realignment. With the SEC going to 18 schools and the Big Ten possibly remaining at 18, that probably means the Big 12 would add two schools to get to 18, and I suspect they would take Florida State and possibly Clemson over VA Tech and NC St. It is possible that the Big Ten goes to 20 schools (possibly prompting the Big 12 to go to 20 as well) by adding Stanford and Cal or maybe Miami and Florida State but it's far from a given, making it a legitimate possibility that VA Tech and/or NC St end up in the fourth best conference.
Meanwhile, If UVA and UNC choose the Big Ten, it is likely that VA Tech and NC St get invited to join the SEC, since the SEC can expand its territory and doesn't want to concede southern states to its main rival conference. In other words, UVA and UNC joining the Big Ten makes it likely that both of the major schools in each state end up in a superconference. Considering the huge gaps in revenue between the two superconferences and the ACC that already exist and will be even larger once the ACC gets raided, it would clearly be a substantial financial benefit to the states of VA and NC to ensure that each of their two main universities end up in a superconference.
Our major elected officials should point this out to the major elected officials in VA and NC because it would also increase UConn's chances of getting into the Big 12, which would be preferable to the ACC since that conference may not even be a power conference after the upcoming realignment and at a minimum will clearly be behind the Big 12. Here is why it helps our chances:
1- It increases the chances that the SEC expands to 20 teams, which in turn will likely prompt the Big 12 to expand to 20 teams, meaning there are more available slots. With the Big Ten having added schools in VA and NC, the SEC will need to seriously consider some defensive additions (Florida State and possibly Georgia Tech) to prevent the Big Ten from possibly taking those schools and expanding into the SEC's already limited geographical footprint.
2- It greatly reduces the chances of Stanford and Cal getting into the Big Ten (since they'll already be at 20), which may provide an opening for us to be school #20 in the Big 12. There will likely be between 54-60 slots in three biggest conferences, depending on whether some/all of them end up at 18 or 20 teams. Right now, I believe we are school #62 if Stanford and Cal get in but #60 if they do not get in.
Schools almost certainly ahead of us in the pecking order (9): UVA, VA Tech, UNC, NC St, Florida St, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, and probably Duke.
Schools possibly ahead of us in the pecking order (2): Stanford and Cal. If they get in, that pushes us out of the top 60, meaning we won't get into the Big 12 unless at least one of the conferences goes beyond 20.
Here is the most likely scenario where we could get into the Big 12:
-Big Ten goes to 20 by adding UVA and UNC.
-SEC goes to 20 by adding VA Tech, NC St, Florida St, and Georgia Tech (which gets added since they need a 20th team and to prevent the Big Ten from getting into the Atlanta market).
-Big 12 goes to 20 by adding Miami, Clemson, Duke, and ?? We would probably be the most attractive remaining option for the 20th and final slot in this scenario. It would also balance out the Big 12's additions with two football schools and two basketball schools.
