FWIW, I asked ChatGPT how Flug's scenarios affect UConn...
Big picture on UConn and realignment — where each scenario actually leaves us
All the ACC / Big 12 talk boils down to four realistic futures. From a UConn perspective, they’re
not equal — because each one prices basketball (and leverage) very differently.
Miracle Merger (Big 12 + ACC consolidation)
This is the only scenario where basketball is
structurally re-priced, not treated as a secondary add-on to football. A merged or tightly aligned league would have too many elite basketball brands and too much January–March inventory for media partners to bundle cheaply. That forces basketball to become a
primary value driver.
In that world,
UConn isn’t an outlier — it’s a
pillar asset. UConn moves from “great hoops, but…” to a flagship brand that helps
define the league’s value. Just as important, this structure protects UConn from being collateral damage of football-first decisions. This is the clearest “UConn actually wins realignment” scenario.
Best-of-the-Rest Alliance
A coordinated league or alliance built around the strongest non–Power-2 brands still elevates basketball’s importance and keeps UConn near the center of the value equation. It may be less formal and less lucrative than a full merger, but UConn is still a
core asset, not a passenger.
The key difference from the miracle merger is ceiling: this provides stability and relevance, but not quite the same institutional leverage or long-term upside. Still, it’s a strong outcome for a basketball-first school.
Re-imagined ACC (partial breakaway)
If the ACC sheds its football-first schools and stabilizes at a lower tier, UConn can still thrive competitively. Basketball remains strong, and the brand holds.
But the downside is structural: media value is capped, leverage is limited, and basketball still isn’t the primary economic engine. UConn survives and competes — but it’s adapting to the system, not shaping it. This is workable, not transformational.
Status Quo / Poaching / Slow Erosion
This is the familiar nightmare. The Big Ten and SEC keep consolidating power, basketball loses leverage again, and the ACC and Big 12 weaken independently. In that environment, UConn is forced to
overperform just to maintain status, despite elite results.
Nothing is
actively wrong — but nothing improves. This is how UConn has historically “lost” realignment without doing anything wrong on the court.
Important context on timing
Yes, leaving the Big East currently involves a ~$15M exit fee and a long notice period — but both are believed to expire around
2031, which lines up almost perfectly with:
- ACC exit windows opening
- Big 12 media cycle changes
- Broader post-CFP governance shifts
That gives UConn the luxury of
patience, not paralysis.
Why Hurley and the administration aren’t sweating this
They understand UConn’s value is
structural, not situational — elite basketball, a national brand, and consistent ratings — and those assets gain leverage when the system is still in flux.
For the “First Rule of Conference Realignment” crowd
That’s been true when UConn was forced to move
early or react to others’ football decisions. This time, independence and timing mean UConn can wait until the market actually
needs what it offers — which is how schools stop getting screwed and start choosing.
Bottom line:
Any future where basketball matters structurally is good for UConn. Of the four paths, consolidation or coordination is clearly best, patience is rational, and panic is unnecessary.