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CL82

2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions
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BTM = Blue Tongue Man?

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Original Thi‏ @FL_Hawk25 24h24 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire
What is the speculation on Kansas now that Texas has bumped them out of all this conversation?

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 24h24 hours ago
What has changed is Big Ten’s main targets. But of course it doesn’t mean UT will make the jump..or OU for that matter. Kansas is not out of conversation, but it no longer controls own destiny when it comes to B1G Expansion plans. But is definitely not out of conversation.

❄ Seth A ❄‏ @KUandUofAfan 20h20 hours ago
So let's pretend that Texas and OU do go to the B1G. Does he think that means KU will head to the SEC?
 
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Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 17h17 hours ago
Want to buy a stake in the Pac-12 Conference? It’s exploring taking on private equity partners.

Huge story on so many levels. Watch this story develop.

Matt Sarzyniak‏ @mattsarz
Matt Sarzyniak Retweeted William Tobakos

For the 90% that the schools control in "Pac12 NewCo", I see your point, but the 10% that the private equity investors would be infusing, how do they recoup?

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 17h17 hours ago
Replying to @mattsarz
PAC12 NewCo would get 10% of the cut PAC gets in media contracts until money is paid back...correct? This is a massive gamble for PAC schools.

William Tobakos‏ @tuxedotenurer79 17h17 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @mattsarz
big ten gets like $1 per subscriber in the big 10 states, $.25 subscriber elsewhere, part of the reason Rutgers and Maryland added. my figures are from memory so they are approximate

Matt Sarzyniak‏ @mattsarz 17h17 hours ago
Replying to @tuxedotenurer79 @flugempire
You're about right on this premise. Its a blended subscriber rate.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 17h17 hours ago
More
Greg Flugaur Retweeted Dennis Dodd

https://mobile.twitter.com/dennisdoddcbs/status/1079085418421895168 … Wow. Incredible story. This sucker needs to be flushed out. PAC schools ready to gamble on themselves and their conference in a huge way.

Matt Sarzyniak‏ @mattsarz 17h17 hours ago
Matt Sarzyniak Retweeted Greg Flugaur

Maybe(?) Since @tuxedotenurer79 brought it up, I'm starting to wonder how this truly differs, at least structurally, from the LLC that BTN is. More assets from the conference would be in this NewCo compared to what BTN is. https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=62316211 …

Doug‏ @NebGradDubDub 17h17 hours ago
This will lead to B12 splitting up.......some to P12, some to B10. Just my opinion. It gets P12 into central time zone.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 17h17 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub
I don’t know Doug. This story needs to be flushed out some. But at the very least this is not a conference which will be poached by Big 12 (this was never in the cards) if this deal happens. This is long term agreement..there would be no outs for PAC schools.

Randy D‏ @cubsgop 16h16 hours ago
Replying to @NebGradDubDub @flugempire
Smells of Pac desperation to me

Doug‏ @NebGradDubDub 16h16 hours ago
The B12 will be in the same boat when their media deal expires.

shoobie doobie doowah‏ @Expansion_Crush 17h17 hours ago
I'd pass without a guaranteed minimum return. Where is the projected ROI. This whole idea looks suspicious. At best the Pac12 is selling future income for money today to keep schools from looking outside the conference. Arizona, Arizona State and maybe Colorado.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 17h17 hours ago
Replying to @Expansion_Crush
I’m not sure I understand the whole story yet. It does look like a cash infusion for 10% equity. My question is how does this PAC CO group help build value for PAC schools? The infusion helps pay the bills..but I don’t know man.

shoobie doobie doowah‏ @Expansion_Crush 16h16 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire
Pays the bills today but after the cash infusion is gone then what? They get a 1 year bump for 10% of the media rights and licensed materials. Seems like a bad investment. Looks like they're bullish on T1 rights. And 10% of future T1 rights and such go to investors.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 16h16 hours ago
Each school, according to what we are reading as of today, would receive about 42 million dollars from this deal. Conference would sign over 10% of equity.

Aaron‏ @posas13 16h16 hours ago
Replying to @Expansion_Crush @flugempire
Looks like a plan to find a strategic partner like Fox or ESPN. PAC finally figuring out that their 100% owned network isn't worth much if they can't get distribution or market well enough to drive viewership. They need a media company to help with maximizing value.

shoobie doobie doowah‏ @Expansion_Crush 16h16 hours ago
Replying to @posas13 @flugempire
But with only a 10% investment potential it doesn't look like they want a media company to be involved. It looks like they're looking for a short term cash infusion. And this deal includes 10% of the merchandise sales.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 16h16 hours ago
Replying to @Expansion_Crush @posas13
Exactly. This is not about building something....it’s a bridge loan to 2024.

Aaron‏ @posas13 16h16 hours ago
Replying to @Expansion_Crush @flugempire
Yeah, good point. Sounds like they're dipping their toes just to get some cash...not a great sign..

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 16h16 hours ago
I will tell you this...if PAC is shooting for huge tier 1 Media deal for 2024 they have to get their Conf into Central Time Zone. They have to get this done. Big Market, Central Time Zone University so their package can be more versatile..more bandwidth

Something like Houston.

shoobie doobie doowah‏ @Expansion_Crush 16h16 hours ago
With the way the Pac12 distributes money, the conference gets an equal share as if they're a member school. So they're basically expanding without adding a school. Looks like investors get treatment as a 14th member.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 16h16 hours ago
Big Ten gets a slice of Big Ten Network money like it’s the 15th schools as well. But this is not like the FOX-Big Ten deal with BTN. The Network created long term value for Big Ten schools. This seems to be a loan..a bet..hoping for Big Tier 1 Deal for PAC in 2024.

shoobie doobie doowah‏ @Expansion_Crush 16h16 hours ago
Exactly


Greg Flugaur Retweeted
Jon Wilner‏Verified account @wilnerhotline 12h12 hours ago

In 2011, the Pac-12 considered adding the Oklahoma schools and becoming a 14-team conference. What if it had?

What if the Oklahoma schools had joined the Pac-12?
 
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I just don't see OU or Texas wanting to go to BIG and having to play in the cold weather along with going through tOSU, UM, Wisconsin, etc

They have a cake walk right now in Big XII and would have the same plus better weather in PAC
 

dayooper

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I just don't see OU or Texas wanting to go to BIG and having to play in the cold weather along with going through tOSU, UM, Wisconsin, etc

They have a cake walk right now in Big XII and would have the same plus better weather in PAC

I guess I don’t understand this whole weather issue. Our weather here in Michigan is not a frozen tundra during football season. In Ann Arbor, the average temperature in September is 75 degrees, October is 62 and November is 48. The last games would be played the weekend of Thanksgiving and they won’t be playing in the North. Michigan plays OSU, Wisconsin plays Minnesota and the like. My guess is Oklahoma would be playing Nebraska that weekend. Texas would find someone like PSU to play that last weekend.

To me, weather is a non factor. Money is. Will the Big12 get the money it has now? Can PAC get out of its money issues? The Big10 has no money issues. If the Big12 can secure the money they have now plus more, it’s best for them to stay. If not, they need to bolt. If the PAC can’t fix their money issues, they are a non starter.
 
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I guess I don’t understand this whole weather issue. Our weather here in Michigan is not a frozen tundra during football season. In Ann Arbor, the average temperature in September is 75 degrees, October is 62 and November is 48. The last games would be played the weekend of Thanksgiving and they won’t be playing in the North. Michigan plays OSU, Wisconsin plays Minnesota and the like. My guess is Oklahoma would be playing Nebraska that weekend. Texas would find someone like PSU to play that last weekend.

To me, weather is a non factor. Money is. Will the Big12 get the money it has now? Can PAC get out of its money issues? The Big10 has no money issues. If the Big12 can secure the money they have now plus more, it’s best for them to stay. If not, they need to bolt. If the PAC can’t fix their money issues, they are a non starter.

I agree. While the folks down South may whine about the weather, it's a non-factor. After all, Dallas itself is not immune from some really nasty cold weather . It's about Money and Power. As long as Texas and Oklahoma receive a competitive pay-out from the XII and have an above average chance of making it to the Playoffs (versus slogging through the B1G or SEC), they will stay in the XII. If that changes, they then will move.

Just note Power can have different shades. The XII and SEC are all about football power. The ACC takes into consideration basketball, too. The B1G is very interested in academic power, also.
 
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Weather is obviously a factor on some level. The country has been moving south for several generations and asking Southern talent to buck the very real trend is just another hurdle. Obviously it can be done, but it is just an unforced added hassle.
 
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I agree. While the folks down South may whine about the weather, it's a non-factor. After all, Dallas itself is not immune from some really nasty cold weather . It's about Money and Power. As long as Texas and Oklahoma receive a competitive pay-out from the XII and have an above average chance of making it to the Playoffs (versus slogging through the B1G or SEC), they will stay in the XII. If that changes, they then will move.

Just note Power can have different shades. The XII and SEC are all about football power. The ACC takes into consideration basketball, too. The B1G is very interested in academic power, also.

Texas and oklahoma wouldn't be the alpha dogs in the BIG, that is also a shade of power. They would be alphas by staying put or going to PAC 12.

Weather is most certainly an issue regardless of what BIG homers think. 50 degrees which is fine for northerners and great lakes area isn't fine for those living in texas and oklahoma
 
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Texas and oklahoma wouldn't be the alpha dogs in the BIG, that is also a shade of power. They would be alphas by staying put or going to PAC 12.

Weather is most certainly an issue regardless of what BIG homers think. 50 degrees which is fine for northerners and great lakes area isn't fine for those living in texas and oklahoma

Exactly on the alpha issue. Once the money that the B1G could offer Texas and Oklahoma (Kansas would come along for the ride) outweighs the control that the two have in the XII, they are gone. Of course, with all of the turmoil with broadcasting right now, who knows if or when that will happen.

As for the weather, please see above. An extra $50 Million or so a year will keep Texas and Oklahoma executives plenty warm in their suites.
 

dayooper

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Texas and oklahoma wouldn't be the alpha dogs in the BIG, that is also a shade of power. They would be alphas by staying put or going to PAC 12.

Weather is most certainly an issue regardless of what BIG homers think. 50 degrees which is fine for northerners and great lakes area isn't fine for those living in texas and oklahoma

It’s all about money. If they can make close to the same amount in the Big12, than they should (and will) stay. If not, they are gone. Being a top dog means nothing if they can’t afford it. Look at the Pac’s alphadogs. Looking for a cash infusion and falling apart.

As far as the weather goes, please tell me why it’s such a big deal. There are rarely any snow storms during the football season and it’s not that called. It’s not super cold and very comfortable most of the football season.
 
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Sometimes media money isn't everything....particularly when you are Texas.

If Texas played for 2 cents a year in media money...they still would have more athletic department income than most...they would be ranked #6.
 
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And, I believe that there is a value to schools, their alumni and fans, to retain cultural ties and traditional rivalries.

And it is, ultimately, what your athletic department does with those dollars...Sure Indiana and Northwestern make more media money than Clemson...But Clemson does fine with what it has.
 
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The more I contemplate the chase of money for money's sake, the more I wonder about the ultimate value. I think that we lose sight of the athletics for the dollars.

The purpose of athletic department income is to have quality programs. Not to end up ranked #1 on income.

The ACC , as an example, is far behind the Big 10 and SEC in media income...But not behind in quality sports.

Not having BIg Ten income hasn't stopped the ACC from playing in the CFP or winning the NC...

The ACC has won 6 basketball titles since the BIg Ten won their last.

And the non revenue sports seem to do well without the big dollars...

Since 2014, National Championships in men and in women's soccer, women's basketball, baseball, mens lacrosse, women's lacrosse, softball, men's tennis.

Yes...dollars are needed to run a good AD....but you can have success with less.
 

dayooper

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And, I believe that there is a value to schools, their alumni and fans, to retain cultural ties and traditional rivalries.

And it is, ultimately, what your athletic department does with those dollars...Sure Indiana and Northwestern make more media money than Clemson...But Clemson does fine with what it has.

This is a great post. I truly believe that traditional rivalries are very important. Yet, who are Texas’ traditional rivalries? Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas Tech? Being in the old SWC, most of those schools are small private (Baylor, TCU, SMU, Rice) or a commuter school like Houston. They aren’t playing Texas A&M or Arkansas in anything, so who would they stay for (if Oklahoma was moving with them?

*edited for clearity*
 
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Sometimes, "moving up", is not moving up...like from FCS to FBS

"Analyses have been done regarding the football success of teams that have reclassified and there have been 28 such
teams from 1978-2016. The results for those, on average, have not been good. The average winning percentage dropped
from 58% in the FCS to 46% in FBS. Similarly, those teams had winning seasons 65.6% of the time in FCS and only 36.5%
of the time in the FBS. With the exceptions of Boise State, Nevada and Appalachian State, the football fortunes of teams
that have reclassified have been fairly poor._
 
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Much of the value of football, for students, fans and alumni, is the pageantry...

The saturday afternoons and evenings in the fall...the bantering between Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, TCU fans....Michigan and Ohio State fans...FSU and Florida and Miami fans...

Sure WVU makes money in the Big 12...but the backyard brawl with Pitt is gone, the heated rivalry with VT is gone...and many of their fans on the boards have not warmed up to a rivalry with Iowa State.
 
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True that Texan's lost a huge rivalry in Texas vs the Aggies...

Of course Oklahoma is important as a rivalry...but football is also about folks, in offices, working together who banter about the program.

I married into a Texan family and still must trek back every so often to pay my marriage tax. They miss the Aggies but still manage to hate them and, now, the whole SEC.

But, there is a transfer of sorts...from 2010, Texas has been losing to Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State and was 35-36 in conference. Office banter in San Antone has heated up,

When the mighty fall, the hyenas gather...and the wounded Longhorn thrashes out and stomps and snorts.

If I mention to all of my in-laws that, should Texas lose to Georgia, the top four Big 12 teams will have lost their bowl game...well, it would not be pretty...and I ain't THAT stupid.
 
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GREG SW AIM SHOW‏ @GSw aim 31 Dec 2018
Spoke to media member, who's very good at what's going on with the #Big12, and said the odds of losing either the #Sooners or #UT increasing. And whether you like either of those schools, losing either one would basically end this conference, and losing both certainly would

Kyle Lewis‏ @determined_dad 31 Dec 2018
Replying to @GSw aim
How soon do they see something like that happening?

Kekoa ‏ @kekoa2347 4h4 hours ago
Good! This conference has been a joke since Nebraska left

GREG SW AIM SHOW‏ @GSw aim 5h5 hours ago
GREG SW AIM SHOW Retweeted Kyle Lewis

The new conference tv deals are up in 3 years, so talks already going on behind the scenes. Keeping our ears close to the ground.

Tyger Walters‏ @jacksontyge 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @GSw aim
Do you think Texas and OU are Big Ten bound?

Seanbo Sengo‏ @SeanboSengo 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @GSw aim
Greg, what's your feeling? OU/Tex to B1G OU/Tex to SEC Or do they split Tex to B1G, OU to SEC OU to B1G, Tex to Independent

WVU and Reds‏ @DavidMoore_WV 5h5 hours ago
Replying to @GSw aim
Not sure if u have any insight into WVU, but where do u think we will end up?

GREG SW AIM SHOW‏ @GSw aim 5h5 hours ago
GREG SW AIM SHOW Retweeted Tyger Walters

With Boren's departure, Oklahoma is not AAU accredited, and #B1G folks assure me that's a deal breaker. Texas is AAU, and will have offers from everyone once LHN ends.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 31 Dec 2018
Greg Flugaur Retweeted GREG SW AIM SHOW

https://mobile.twitter.com/GSwaim/status/1079883694821785601 … Well....they are being targeted by 2 of the most valued P5 conferences with backing from their large Media partners. So yes..this tweet is accurate.

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @GSw aim
Michigan State was not AAU when it entered into the Big Ten. What’s more important than a private club status...is that the university has a certain level of research expenditures. Oklahoma is equal with Nebraska in regards to this metric. B1G is targeting OU.

shoobie doobie doowah‏ @Expansion_Crush 4h4 hours ago
And Nebraska was under review 4 years before entering the Big Ten and losing its membership while 2 Big Ten member schools voted against them retaining AAU membership. They were still unanimously added as the 12th school.

Seanbo Sengo‏ @SeanboSengo 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire @GSw aim
Greg, if OU's AAU status is a dealbreaker for the B1G, could Texas's clout get OU a waiver into the B1G. That's if Texas wants OU as a conference mate.

e0ppok‏ @e0ppok 4h4 hours ago
Wouldn't Texas (or Oklahoma) have to want to join 1st..? As is, UT (& OU)would be over 1,000+/ (800+) miles from all away games in division & lose all regional foes (even Kansas)... B1G $51m/ vs UT $52m (OU $47m), almost same pay annually...

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
Of course. Oklahoma will have options. Travel is a component to all of this, you are correct. But Big 12 Tier 1 & 2 Media Contract component of OU & UT Conference Payouts will not keep up with Big Ten or SEC in next go around. Will see if gap is large enough to shake the tree.
 
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1...the LHN expires in 2031

2..."B. Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this Section 2, in the event that UT determines during the Term, to become a member of an athletics conference other than the Big 12 Conference or not to participate in any athletics conference, UT agrees to continue to grant and provide or to cause IMG to continue to grant and provide) to ESPN the Television Rights set forth in this Agreement "

Full LHN contract here:

 
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Gregory D. M. K.‏ @GregGregoryKJ 20h20 hours ago
Replying to @GSw aim
I have read that OU is legally tied to Oklahoma State. Do you know about that?

GREG SW AIM SHOW‏ @GSw aim 5h5 hours ago
GREG SW AIM SHOW Retweeted Gregory D. M. K.

There's nothing official, although many in the state legislature do feel the two should be together in the same conference. OU is going to do what's best for them.

a p dubya‏ @AP_Dubya 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @GSw aim
Don’t know why OU and UT are so eager to jump. Who has really come out ahead from realignment? Guess you could say A&M and Rutgers.

GREG SW AIM SHOW‏ @GSw aim 3h3 hours ago
GREG SW AIM SHOW Retweeted a p dubya

Texas going to lose LHN, and will need in a conference with a TV channel. #Big12 let OU and Texas do 3rd tier rights, but more money comes from a conference package

GREG SW AIM SHOW‏ @GSw aim 2h2 hours ago
#UCF clearly belongs in a P5. #Big12 are you paying attention?

Greg Flugaur‏ @flugempire 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @e0ppok
There is not going to be any type of merger between PAC & Big 12. Most of the Big 12 schools do not fit the model of what PAC Presidents would find acceptable. Like-Mindedness is important component with conferences trying to grow value in their future.

e0ppok‏ @e0ppok 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @flugempire
PAC is not in position of power, it would be the XII poaching; not the other way around... The conference reforms similar to Big8/SWC merger in 1996... Oklahoma/Kansas stay in new league, Texas has shown an affinity for PAC schools as: USC/UCLA/California/Stanford/Washington...
 

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