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SubbaBub said:
AltDude is looking at it backwards. A 1-loss ND may crowd out 2 P5 champions.
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Notre Dame only needs to beat USC to be 12-0 and complete their run of the table...

Alabama and Clemson, the other undefeateds, have two more games....if the SEC Champ and ACC champ finish 13-0, they are in.

The question then becomes whether a 12-1 Big Ten or Big 12 Champ will roll 12-0 Notre Dame out of the play off.

If Clemson loses one of the remaining two games, the ACC could be out...but I don't see Clemson losing.
 
billybud said:
Notre Dame only needs to beat USC to be 12-0 and complete their run of the table...

Alabama and Clemson, the other undefeateds, have two more games....if the SEC Champ and ACC champ finish 13-0, they are in.

The question then becomes whether a 12-1 Big Ten or Big 12 Champ will roll 12-0 Notre Dame out of the play off.

If Clemson loses one of the remaining two games, the ACC could be out...but I don't see Clemson losing.
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I think the worst case scenario for the Playoff Committee is if Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game while ND, Clemson and Michigan win their remaining games. Under this scenario, undefeated and ACC champ Clemson is in. The committee has proven in the past it will not say no to a 1-loss Alabama team that does not even wins its conference championship and will not say no to a 1-loss SEC conference champion in Georgia that beat 'Bama. Now, if Michigan wins The Game over Ohio St and then the B1G championship against Northwestern, I think that will give them enough 'points' to vault ND, even with their head-to-head win loss to ND in week 1, into the playoffs.

UCF is not even in this conversation regardless of their SOS and any other factor because the entire system is designed to lock-out any non P5 team from the championship game, i.e. money. Oklahoma, which will have issues with West Virginia or Texas in the XII title game, and Washington St, are both out even if they win their conference championships as they have not done enough and do not have a marquee win or two against the top 10.

Oklahoma XII champion locked-out of the playoff will send the XII into a panic while and undefeated ND being locked-out will cause an all-out war.
 
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Mr. Conehead said:
I think the worst case scenario for the Playoff Committee is if Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game while ND, Clemson and Michigan win their remaining games. Under this scenario, undefeasted and ACC champ Clemson is in. The committee has proven it will no say no to a 1-loss Alabama team that does not even wins its conference championship and will not say no to a 1-loss SEC conference champion in Georgia. Now, if Michigan wins The Game over Ohio St and then the B1G championship against Northwestern, I think that will give them enough 'points' to vault ND, even with their head-to-head win loss to ND in week 1, into the playoffs.

UCF is not even in this conversation regardless of their SOS and any other factor because the entire system is designed to lock-out any non P5 team from the championship game, i.e. money. Oklahoma, which will have issues with West Virginia or Texas in the XII title game, and Washington St, are both out even if they win their conference championships as they have not done enough and do not have a marquee win or two against the top 10.

Oklahoma XII champion locked-out of the playoff will send the XII into a panic while and undefeated ND being locked-out will cause an all-out war.
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You have given me another something to root for. Georgia beating Alabama like you said would absolutely cause chaos and provoke whiny Notre Dame to whine some more.

UCF will never get in and that's why this Playoff system is an absolute sham.
 
Dooley said:
You have given me another something to root for. Georgia beating Alabama like you said would absolutely cause chaos and provoke whiny Notre Dame to whine some more.

UCF will never get in and that's why this Playoff system is an absolute sham.
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UCF needs to play a top 30 team....they have not done so...
 
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billybud said:
UCF needs to play a top 30 team....they have not done so...
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Hmmm...UCF hasn't lost in nearly 2 years. If these "polls" (i.e. power conference popularity contests) were properly and accurately weighted, you would see UCF has beaten 3 top-30 caliber teams this year: Pitt, Temple, and Cincinnati. Memphis is fairly decent and it's a shame the UNC game was PPD because UCF would have manhandled them easily, just like they did with Pitt. The USF game will give them another decent win along with the AAC Championship Game. That's 3-5 wins against top-30 teams. Same as Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, or anyone else the Old Money Club claims is better.

Such a crock.
 
No Top 30 in Sagarin's ratings.

In Massey Compilation...Pitt sneaks in at #30
....Cincinnati at 34...Temple at 43.

You think that they are sweet, but the bees don't know it.
 
The ACC is vastly over rated. Clemson is actually the only the only team that is legit elite. Everyone else is average at best.
 
Dooley said:
Sagarin ratings use...wait for it...conference weighting in their formula. In other words: bias. Or as bees would say: biuzzzzzzzzz.
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Yeah....and just where do you find "conference weighting" in his formula?

You made that up.
 
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Sagarin's proprietary system (he won't tell you how it works in detail) is a combination of three points based systems and is smoothed using a bayesian algorithmn.
 
The algorithmns don't have "conference" as a construct...they reward performance...wins against other teams with wins and wins by the opponents of those other teams.

But...who you play and who you beat is important....thus you separate an 11 win North Dakota State from an 11 win Alabama....and an 11 win UCF.

.....wins are rewarded (thus North Dakota State is ranked higher than Wisconsin and Florida by Sagarin...but strength of wins is also noted...so that North Dakota State still is, with an 11-0 record, ranked below some 7 and 8 win teams.
 
Mr. Conehead said:
When it comes to college football, that's spelled bia$$$$$$$$$
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It sure is.

I don't blame the fans from inside the college football Money Club for spouting the same nonsense gibberish over and over again to justify UCF not being in the top 4. They do what they're told - there's alot of money in it for their schools and the networks that invested in them.

Can you imagine if college hoops was the same? We wouldn't bother with rounds 1-4...just skip to the Final Four with Duke, Kentucky, UNC and TBD every year. Food for thought: would UConn even have 1-4 championships? In other words, would we have even gotten the chance to play and win those? Or would our spot just have gone to Indiana or UCLA instead?
 
billybud said:
Sagarin's proprietary system (he won't tell you how it works in detail) is a combination of three points based systems and is smoothed using a bayesian algorithmn.
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Let's put on on our thinking caps...

1. the formula is a secret, protected by a sacred oath sworn in blood to keep it;
2. the formula uses some version of a WIN50% conference ranking as a foundation to create every team's schedule strength;
3. conferences are ranked/weighted (you can see each conference's "score" at the bottom of the sagarin page)

But I digress because the hows and whys this one particular formula works is not important. What is important is the how and why the College Football Playoff Committee arrives at their "Final 4". If you can point me to the section in the CFP Committee Charter that states (something along the lines of) "we will exclusively use the sagarin rating system to select the 4 participants", I would appreciate it.

For the record, I'm only arguing this particular formula's merits because you seem to swear allegiance to it to arrive at your conclusion that UCF hasn't beaten any quality "top 30" opponents to justify their omission from the Playoff. I don't blame you either - you are a fan of a Power Conference school that sits at the Money Club table. The networks and so-called "experts" regurgitate the same message that you are. For you, Florida State, the ACC, ESPN, and the upcoming ACC Network (ESPN), protecting those sacred 4 seats in the Playoff is vital to continue justifying the haves and the have-nots. If an AAC team like UCF, who hasn't lost in nearly 2 years, has beaten everyone on its schedule (including a win over the only team to have beaten Alabama in the same time period), takes one of those 4 seats, that is bad news for the P5 and the networks who have invested so much money in them. Can you imagine being one of the ESPN higher-ups who has to walk into Disney headquarters and explain to their Board that spending hundreds of millions of Disney dollars to differentiate certain conferences from the rest was entirely unnecessary?

College football is a scam as it's currently constituted. But whatever, I'm about to gorge myself on a few pounds of turkey and mashed potatoes and watch some NFL...where champions are decided on the field and not by popularity contest polls.
 
Dooley said:
It sure is.

I don't blame the fans from inside the college football Money Club for spouting the same nonsense gibberish over and over again to justify UCF not being in the top 4. They do what they're told - there's alot of money in it for their schools and the networks that invested in them.

Can you imagine if college hoops was the same? We wouldn't bother with rounds 1-4...just skip to the Final Four with Duke, Kentucky, UNC and TBD every year. Food for thought: would UConn even have 1-4 championships? In other words, would we have even gotten the chance to play and win those? Or would our spot just have gone to Indiana or UCLA instead?
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Sooo?

Football Championships are not determined by a 65 team tournament....basketball think doesn't really work here.

With a 12-13 game season, the regular season is also the playoff... Michigan plays Ohio State, Ohio State plays Penn State, Alabama plays Auburn and LSU, Oklahoma plays WVU...etc.

On any given Saturday...top teams will be playing each other, and the whole warp and woof of the college football fabric vibrates when a top 15 team loses.

If the regular college season isn't much of a playoff for a team (very weak SOS), it is indeed difficult to participate in a playoff.

Yes...a team is at a disadvantage for making the play offs if they end up regular season not playing top 30 teams.

It isn't basketball...but even in basketball, the strength of your opponents will determine which side of the bubble you fall...

Basketball has a higher "cut line" than the 4 currently in football...and always will. When the football playoff moves to eight...the arguments will be at who was left out at #8.

I don't blame fans of the G5 for spouting gibberish about how inclusion into the football playoff should be disconnected from performance measurements....like the 1984 BYU NC team that beat their schedule...but really beat no one (and thus ultimately brought about the BCS and CFP).
 
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Conferences are not weighted...schedules are weighted, Dooley.

Yes...Sagarin provides information about conferences...but it is schedules that are ranked...that's the reason that Wisconsin's SOS is now #56 while Michigan State's is #2.
 
Just expand the playoff to 8 teams. Since its all headed there anyway, just get on with it already and do it. Literally the only thing slowing this down is the conferences and NCAA trying to decide how they will carve up the additional billions of dollars it will create. Nobody really cares about kids playing additional games, if they did there would be no FCS, Div 2 or Div 3 Playoffs.

Start with The B1G, PAC, XII, SEC, and ACC Champs. Add the highest ranked G5 School and two wild cards. Done. You've added exactly 1 additional game to the season at the return of billions of potential dollars. Will people still find a reason to b***? Absolutely, but their arguments will carry a lot less weight. This year you would likely see something like this play out.

1)Alabama
8)Washington State

4)Michigan
5)Oklahoma

3)Notre Dame
6)LSU

2)Clemson
7)UCF

If by chance Pitt, Utah, or NW pulled an upset in their championship games, then too bad so sad. Hope you built enough of a resume to compete with the rest of the 2 loss teams for those final two slots.
 
Ldandy said:
Just expand the playoff to 8 teams. Since its all headed there anyway, just get on with it already and do it. Literally the only thing slowing this down is the conferences and NCAA trying to decide how they will carve up the additional billions of dollars it will create. Nobody really cares about kids playing additional games, if they did there would be no FCS, Div 2 or Div 3 Playoffs.

Start with The B1G, PAC, XII, SEC, and ACC Champs. Add the highest ranked G5 School and two wild cards. Done. You've added exactly 1 additional game to the season at the return of billions of potential dollars. Will people still find a reason to b***? Absolutely, but their arguments will carry a lot less weight. This year you would likely see something like this play out.

1)Alabama
8)Washington State

4)Michigan
5)Oklahoma

3)Notre Dame
6)LSU

2)Clemson
7)UCF

If by chance Pitt, Utah, or NW pulled an upset in their championship games, then too bad so sad. Hope you built enough of a resume to compete with the rest of the 2 loss teams for those final two slots.
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Ldandy said:
Just expand the playoff to 8 teams. Since its all headed there anyway, just get on with it already and do it. Literally the only thing slowing this down is the conferences and NCAA trying to decide how they will carve up the additional billions of dollars it will create. Nobody really cares about kids playing additional games, if they did there would be no FCS, Div 2 or Div 3 Playoffs.

Start with The B1G, PAC, XII, SEC, and ACC Champs. Add the highest ranked G5 School and two wild cards. Done. You've added exactly 1 additional game to the season at the return of billions of potential dollars. Will people still find a reason to b***? Absolutely, but their arguments will carry a lot less weight. This year you would likely see something like this play out.

1)Alabama
8)Washington State

4)Michigan
5)Oklahoma

3)Notre Dame
6)LSU

2)Clemson
7)UCF

If by chance Pitt, Utah, or NW pulled an upset in their championship games, then too bad so sad. Hope you built enough of a resume to compete with the rest of the 2 loss teams for those final two slots.
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If the playoffs expands it won’t be done to the favor of a 13-0 UCF team it’ll be done to the favor of a 9-4 LSU, Georgia, Michigan St team.
 
Dooley, I have no problem with an 8 team playoff...think it would make money (at the expense of maybe some bowl attendance from folks who have to choose travelling among a CCG, the first playoff game, or one of a possible three more playoff games).

I do believe in meritocracy...you play in a CFP because there is a good chance that you are one of the top eight teams...and yes, there could be two teams from one conference who are one of the eight best.

I don't like "automatic" designations....have the best play, regardless of conference.

Don't much like some of the automatics in basketball that end up cutting better teams....socialism of a sorts in sports.
 
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The flaw in college football rankings is and always has been sample size. To cover for this every single ranking system and pollster over values OOC buy games. The SEC as a conference plays maybe 5 or 6 legit games OOC, the rest are fodder. So when we talk about how great they are we are talking about a padded resume.

The failing is over valuing and attempting to parse Teams 11-60 using a too small sample size. Teams like Cincy, Memphis, USF are just as good as the middle of every other P5 conference. The difference is at the top. The bottom is is irrelevant. Beating UConn is no differnet than beating Rutgers, Ole Miss, Kansas, or Oregon State, ywt the P5 gets more credit for it.

At the top, the SEC has 2-3 legit teams, the B1G (2), the ACC, B12, P12 only 1 most years. Add ND if they are actually good like this year and those are the only games that matter, except for upsets like Purdue over OSU.

This year Bama is such head and shoulders better that you really have no idea how good Georgia and LSU are but they had their shot. Mich and OSU will settle it but OSU slipped up this year so they carry that baggage.

Clemson is eating the ACC, they look good but again what team did they beat that UCF wouldn't be favored against?

ND and Bama have the best legit wins, Mich will if it beats OSU. Oklahoma lost to a mediocre Texas team (Baggage), Texas lost to freaking Maryland and may win the league. UCF is ahead of the entire B12 and Pac12. I don't care what Georgia and LSU have done, unless they beat Bama they cant be put ahead of a team that wins 25+ in a row. Not giving them a shot is an exercise in flimsy excuse making. Though the idiots in the South are experts in that lately.
 
Who, pray tell, has UCF beat this season?

Which opponent/s will be in the top 25 come end of regular season?

Don't you think that you need to beat a couple of good teams to compete with those that do?

You can rag on about the SEC OOC games...but UCF is still 50 rankings higher in SOS than Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, etc.

It is UCF who really needs to schedule up in OOC...like any program in a conference with weak in-conference schedules.

Just like the BY BB board continually calls for upgraded OOC games for UConn basketball.
 
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billybud said:
Who, pray tell, has UCF beat this season?

Which opponent/s will be in the top 25 come end of regular season?

Don't you think that you need to beat a couple of good teams to compete with those that do?

You can rag on about the SEC OOC games...but UCF is still 50 rankings higher in SOS than Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, etc.

It is UCF who really needs to schedule up in OOC...like any program in a conference with weak in-conference schedules.

Just like the BY BB board continually calls for upgraded OOC games for UConn basketball.
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Do you think that UCF isn't trying to schedule really good teams? What good P5 teams want to play UCF?
 
To me going to 8 teams, giving each P5 conference champion, the best of the G5 and then the next 2 best is the way to go.
They would still screw the AAC by giving them the 8 seed against a 1 seed Alabama so it would still seem hard to gauge a UCF squad against the #3, 4 or 5 teams lets say but still - at least that would get the G5 in the door and give them access to better recruiting.
 
billybud said:
Who, pray tell, has UCF beat this season?

Which opponent/s will be in the top 25 come end of regular season?

Don't you think that you need to beat a couple of good teams to compete with those that do?

You can rag on about the SEC OOC games...but UCF is still 50 rankings higher in SOS than Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, etc.

It is UCF who really needs to schedule up in OOC...like any program in a conference with weak in-conference schedules.

Just like the BY BB board continually calls for upgraded OOC games for UConn basketball.
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Who has Alabama beaten? If you wish to go there.
 
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