I want to clarify. I think the Big 3 Networks, Peacock/NBC, Paramount+/CBS and Hulu/Disney/ABC, are going to do fine and may even thrive with a lower topline but also lower cost base if they work out the kinks. I think they even have a viable advertiser model in there somewhere with some tweaking. I just think the days of having people wait for 9 pm EST for their favorite show are pretty much over.
That last point has HUGE implications for college sports. The entire ESPN and Fox bundled cable business model for college football is about maximizing casual viewers for the key times like 3:30 pm EST and 8 pm EST on Saturday. Putting those games on ESPN, ABC or Fox, or CBS for that matter, was a huge advantage in driving viewers, and so the schools that were the easiest to market to casual viewers got the most promotion and the best time slots. But if you put every game into a jump ball for viewers where there is no longer a premium time slot on the "main" channel, and the ratings are going to turn out very differently than they did before.
I keep pointing back to what happened to TV. There are still big TV hits on Netflix, Hulu and MAX, among the other channels. But the viewership has fragmented dramatically because now on streaming people aren't being forced to watch something they don't really want to watch. I find Bridgerton unwatchable, and started fast forwarding for the skin scenes after about 10 minutes because I couldn't take it anymore. But there are a lot of female focused shows like Bridgerton or Emily in Paris that could have never gotten on the air 10 years ago that are incredibly successful on streaming. Niche wins in streaming.
Think about the same thing happening to college football or basketball now. Basketball is more used to being in that spot because every game has always been competing against a lot of other games, but the top football games have always been showcased, which helped drive their ratings, and those days are over. This is why I think women's basketball is about to hit a golden era. Could a woman's team consistently generate 1 million plus viewers in a key time slot on ESPN or ABC? No chance. But can a women's team generate a very loyal following that will subscribe and consistently watch the games because they care? Absolutely.