Non-Key Tweets

[billybud]

Sagarin's proprietary system (he won't tell you how it works in detail) is a combination of three points based systems and is smoothed using a bayesian algorithmn.

 

[Irishfan]

Yeah....and just where do you find "conference weighting" in his formula?

You made that up.

Forget it, he’s rollin’.

 

[billybud]

The algorithmns don't have "conference" as a construct...they reward performance...wins against other teams with wins and wins by the opponents of those other teams.

But...who you play and who you beat is important....thus you separate an 11 win North Dakota State from an 11 win Alabama....and an 11 win UCF.

.....wins are rewarded (thus North Dakota State is ranked higher than Wisconsin and Florida by Sagarin...but strength of wins is also noted...so that North Dakota State still is, with an 11-0 record, ranked below some 7 and 8 win teams.

 

[Dooley]

When it comes to college football, that's spelled bia$$$$$$$$$

It sure is.

I don't blame the fans from inside the college football Money Club for spouting the same nonsense gibberish over and over again to justify UCF not being in the top 4. They do what they're told - there's alot of money in it for their schools and the networks that invested in them.

Can you imagine if college hoops was the same? We wouldn't bother with rounds 1-4...just skip to the Final Four with Duke, Kentucky, UNC and TBD every year. Food for thought: would UConn even have 1-4 championships? In other words, would we have even gotten the chance to play and win those? Or would our spot just have gone to Indiana or UCLA instead?

 

[Dooley]

Sagarin's proprietary system (he won't tell you how it works in detail) is a combination of three points based systems and is smoothed using a bayesian algorithmn.

Let's put on on our thinking caps...

1. the formula is a secret, protected by a sacred oath sworn in blood to keep it;
2. the formula uses some version of a WIN50% conference ranking as a foundation to create every team's schedule strength;
3. conferences are ranked/weighted (you can see each conference's "score" at the bottom of the sagarin page)

But I digress because the hows and whys this one particular formula works is not important. What is important is the how and why the College Football Playoff Committee arrives at their "Final 4". If you can point me to the section in the CFP Committee Charter that states (something along the lines of) "we will exclusively use the sagarin rating system to select the 4 participants", I would appreciate it.

For the record, I'm only arguing this particular formula's merits because you seem to swear allegiance to it to arrive at your conclusion that UCF hasn't beaten any quality "top 30" opponents to justify their omission from the Playoff. I don't blame you either - you are a fan of a Power Conference school that sits at the Money Club table. The networks and so-called "experts" regurgitate the same message that you are. For you, Florida State, the ACC, ESPN, and the upcoming ACC Network (ESPN), protecting those sacred 4 seats in the Playoff is vital to continue justifying the haves and the have-nots. If an AAC team like UCF, who hasn't lost in nearly 2 years, has beaten everyone on its schedule (including a win over the only team to have beaten Alabama in the same time period), takes one of those 4 seats, that is bad news for the P5 and the networks who have invested so much money in them. Can you imagine being one of the ESPN higher-ups who has to walk into Disney headquarters and explain to their Board that spending hundreds of millions of Disney dollars to differentiate certain conferences from the rest was entirely unnecessary?

College football is a scam as it's currently constituted. But whatever, I'm about to gorge myself on a few pounds of turkey and mashed potatoes and watch some NFL...where champions are decided on the field and not by popularity contest polls.

 

[billybud]

It sure is.

I don't blame the fans from inside the college football Money Club for spouting the same nonsense gibberish over and over again to justify UCF not being in the top 4. They do what they're told - there's alot of money in it for their schools and the networks that invested in them.

Can you imagine if college hoops was the same? We wouldn't bother with rounds 1-4...just skip to the Final Four with Duke, Kentucky, UNC and TBD every year. Food for thought: would UConn even have 1-4 championships? In other words, would we have even gotten the chance to play and win those? Or would our spot just have gone to Indiana or UCLA instead?

Sooo?

Football Championships are not determined by a 65 team tournament....basketball think doesn't really work here.

With a 12-13 game season, the regular season is also the playoff... Michigan plays Ohio State, Ohio State plays Penn State, Alabama plays Auburn and LSU, Oklahoma plays WVU...etc.

On any given Saturday...top teams will be playing each other, and the whole warp and woof of the college football fabric vibrates when a top 15 team loses.

If the regular college season isn't much of a playoff for a team (very weak SOS), it is indeed difficult to participate in a playoff.

Yes...a team is at a disadvantage for making the play offs if they end up regular season not playing top 30 teams.

It isn't basketball...but even in basketball, the strength of your opponents will determine which side of the bubble you fall...

Basketball has a higher "cut line" than the 4 currently in football...and always will. When the football playoff moves to eight...the arguments will be at who was left out at #8.

I don't blame fans of the G5 for spouting gibberish about how inclusion into the football playoff should be disconnected from performance measurements....like the 1984 BYU NC team that beat their schedule...but really beat no one (and thus ultimately brought about the BCS and CFP).

 

[billybud]

Conferences are not weighted...schedules are weighted, Dooley.

Yes...Sagarin provides information about conferences...but it is schedules that are ranked...that's the reason that Wisconsin's SOS is now #56 while Michigan State's is #2.

 

[Ldandy]

Just expand the playoff to 8 teams. Since its all headed there anyway, just get on with it already and do it. Literally the only thing slowing this down is the conferences and NCAA trying to decide how they will carve up the additional billions of dollars it will create. Nobody really cares about kids playing additional games, if they did there would be no FCS, Div 2 or Div 3 Playoffs.

Start with The B1G, PAC, XII, SEC, and ACC Champs. Add the highest ranked G5 School and two wild cards. Done. You've added exactly 1 additional game to the season at the return of billions of potential dollars. Will people still find a reason to b***? Absolutely, but their arguments will carry a lot less weight. This year you would likely see something like this play out.

1)Alabama
8)Washington State

4)Michigan
5)Oklahoma

3)Notre Dame
6)LSU

2)Clemson
7)UCF

If by chance Pitt, Utah, or NW pulled an upset in their championship games, then too bad so sad. Hope you built enough of a resume to compete with the rest of the 2 loss teams for those final two slots.

 

[billybud]

Teams do not play a CONFERENCE...they play a SCHEDULE

 

[billybud]

Just expand the playoff to 8 teams. Since its all headed there anyway, just get on with it already and do it. Literally the only thing slowing this down is the conferences and NCAA trying to decide how they will carve up the additional billions of dollars it will create. Nobody really cares about kids playing additional games, if they did there would be no FCS, Div 2 or Div 3 Playoffs.

Start with The B1G, PAC, XII, SEC, and ACC Champs. Add the highest ranked G5 School and two wild cards. Done. You've added exactly 1 additional game to the season at the return of billions of potential dollars. Will people still find a reason to b***? Absolutely, but their arguments will carry a lot less weight. This year you would likely see something like this play out.

1)Alabama
8)Washington State

4)Michigan
5)Oklahoma

3)Notre Dame
6)LSU

2)Clemson
7)UCF

If by chance Pitt, Utah, or NW pulled an upset in their championship games, then too bad so sad. Hope you built enough of a resume to compete with the rest of the 2 loss teams for those final two slots.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Just expand the playoff to 8 teams. Since its all headed there anyway, just get on with it already and do it. Literally the only thing slowing this down is the conferences and NCAA trying to decide how they will carve up the additional billions of dollars it will create. Nobody really cares about kids playing additional games, if they did there would be no FCS, Div 2 or Div 3 Playoffs.

Start with The B1G, PAC, XII, SEC, and ACC Champs. Add the highest ranked G5 School and two wild cards. Done. You've added exactly 1 additional game to the season at the return of billions of potential dollars. Will people still find a reason to b***? Absolutely, but their arguments will carry a lot less weight. This year you would likely see something like this play out.

1)Alabama
8)Washington State

4)Michigan
5)Oklahoma

3)Notre Dame
6)LSU

2)Clemson
7)UCF

If by chance Pitt, Utah, or NW pulled an upset in their championship games, then too bad so sad. Hope you built enough of a resume to compete with the rest of the 2 loss teams for those final two slots.

If the playoffs expands it won’t be done to the favor of a 13-0 UCF team it’ll be done to the favor of a 9-4 LSU, Georgia, Michigan St team.

 

[billybud]

Dooley, I have no problem with an 8 team playoff...think it would make money (at the expense of maybe some bowl attendance from folks who have to choose travelling among a CCG, the first playoff game, or one of a possible three more playoff games).

I do believe in meritocracy...you play in a CFP because there is a good chance that you are one of the top eight teams...and yes, there could be two teams from one conference who are one of the eight best.

I don't like "automatic" designations....have the best play, regardless of conference.

Don't much like some of the automatics in basketball that end up cutting better teams....socialism of a sorts in sports.

 

[Stinger92860]

If the playoffs expands it won’t be done to the favor of a 13-0 UCF team it’ll be done to the favor of a 9-4 LSU, Georgia, Michigan St team.

That requires 16 and more $. Start the first weekend after finals.

 

[SubbaBub]

The flaw in college football rankings is and always has been sample size. To cover for this every single ranking system and pollster over values OOC buy games. The SEC as a conference plays maybe 5 or 6 legit games OOC, the rest are fodder. So when we talk about how great they are we are talking about a padded resume.

The failing is over valuing and attempting to parse Teams 11-60 using a too small sample size. Teams like Cincy, Memphis, USF are just as good as the middle of every other P5 conference. The difference is at the top. The bottom is is irrelevant. Beating UConn is no differnet than beating Rutgers, Ole Miss, Kansas, or Oregon State, ywt the P5 gets more credit for it.

At the top, the SEC has 2-3 legit teams, the B1G (2), the ACC, B12, P12 only 1 most years. Add ND if they are actually good like this year and those are the only games that matter, except for upsets like Purdue over OSU.

This year Bama is such head and shoulders better that you really have no idea how good Georgia and LSU are but they had their shot. Mich and OSU will settle it but OSU slipped up this year so they carry that baggage.

Clemson is eating the ACC, they look good but again what team did they beat that UCF wouldn't be favored against?

ND and Bama have the best legit wins, Mich will if it beats OSU. Oklahoma lost to a mediocre Texas team (Baggage), Texas lost to freaking Maryland and may win the league. UCF is ahead of the entire B12 and Pac12. I don't care what Georgia and LSU have done, unless they beat Bama they cant be put ahead of a team that wins 25+ in a row. Not giving them a shot is an exercise in flimsy excuse making. Though the idiots in the South are experts in that lately.

 

[billybud]

Who, pray tell, has UCF beat this season?

Which opponent/s will be in the top 25 come end of regular season?

Don't you think that you need to beat a couple of good teams to compete with those that do?

You can rag on about the SEC OOC games...but UCF is still 50 rankings higher in SOS than Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, etc.

It is UCF who really needs to schedule up in OOC...like any program in a conference with weak in-conference schedules.

Just like the BY BB board continually calls for upgraded OOC games for UConn basketball.

 

[The Viking]

Who, pray tell, has UCF beat this season?

Which opponent/s will be in the top 25 come end of regular season?

Don't you think that you need to beat a couple of good teams to compete with those that do?

You can rag on about the SEC OOC games...but UCF is still 50 rankings higher in SOS than Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, etc.

It is UCF who really needs to schedule up in OOC...like any program in a conference with weak in-conference schedules.

Just like the BY BB board continually calls for upgraded OOC games for UConn basketball.

Do you think that UCF isn't trying to schedule really good teams? What good P5 teams want to play UCF?

 

[The Viking]

To me going to 8 teams, giving each P5 conference champion, the best of the G5 and then the next 2 best is the way to go.
They would still screw the AAC by giving them the 8 seed against a 1 seed Alabama so it would still seem hard to gauge a UCF squad against the #3, 4 or 5 teams lets say but still - at least that would get the G5 in the door and give them access to better recruiting.

 

[SubbaBub]

Who, pray tell, has UCF beat this season?

Which opponent/s will be in the top 25 come end of regular season?

Don't you think that you need to beat a couple of good teams to compete with those that do?

You can rag on about the SEC OOC games...but UCF is still 50 rankings higher in SOS than Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, etc.

It is UCF who really needs to schedule up in OOC...like any program in a conference with weak in-conference schedules.

Just like the BY BB board continually calls for upgraded OOC games for UConn basketball.

Who has Alabama beaten? If you wish to go there.

 

[SubbaBub]

Who has Alabama beaten? If you wish to go there.

Citadel
Louisville
Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette

Their SEC opponents have similar resumes. Their big win (LSU) has a best win over 6-5 Miami (FL)

 

[atom58]

ESPN lost two million subscribers in 2018. Very interesting as a long term trend, may mean the BTN, SECN, LHN, PAC12N, and soon to be nascent ACCN are all on borrowed time. Still 86 million left, however concussion lawsuits and other problems may endanger college sports as you have known it.

ESPN Loses 2 Million Subscribers in Fiscal 2018

 

[billybud]

And this answers the question of "who has UCF beaten?"

I get it it that you want to unhook relative performance from playing for a NC...your response is really..."The G5's are getting the short stick".

In an 8 team playoff...you could reserve a spot for a P5 team...the "automatic" designation...I really don't much care for the "automatics".

But your wail of "they are greedy S-O-B's" doesn't really address the various issues surrounding a performance based selection process.

 

[billybud]

Citadel
Louisville
Arkansas State
Louisiana-Lafayette

Their SEC opponents have similar resumes. Their big win (LSU) has a best win over 6-5 Miami (FL)

Alabama's body of work is superior to UCF...the Tide's SOS isn't a killer (yet)...but UCF's big win was over 4 loss Pitt.

Alabama has beaten current AP #8 LSU...and in Sagarin..one Top 10 team and 4 Top 30 teams....

UCF...zippo Top 30 in Sagarin

 

[SubbaBub]

Alabama's body of work is superior to UCF...the Tide's SOS isn't a killer (yet)...but UCF's big win was over 4 loss Pitt.

Alabama has beaten current AP #8 LSU...and in Sagarin..one Top 10 team and 4 Top 30 teams....

UCF...zippo Top 30 in Sagarin

Who has LSU beat to show they are a quality win? Miami is barely bowl eligible.

I would love to embarrass you by going team by team showing how there are almost no interconference contests that can say any team has a definitively better resume than a team not in their confernce, but I suspect you are a CFB inbred in terms of buying into the system because it protects an FSU team far removed from it's glory days.

All any team can say is they are the best team from their conference. Hence the reason only champions should be considered.

And the correct answer to the question, "Who has UCF beaten?" is, "Everyone they played."

If you can't match that, then you are behind them in worthiness for the playoff.

Any other answer is biased.