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If the B12 MUST add schools, ESPN can tell them that they need to pay for it (accepting a drop in per-school revenue). ESPN doesn't have to pay for it. There is no circumstance under which they will need to pay for Memphis. If Memphis is added, it is because Fred Smith is paying for them.
The AAC contract is expiring soon so ESPN could view UConn and UCF and Cincy as free agents. So you have a valid point that ESPN's ownership of the AAC may not factor. But their hostility to Fox may matter. ESPN may want to reserve UConn and potentially for others for the ACC. So it might want to block B12 expansion.
I discount the Fred Smith thing because corporations can change course on a tack. Say the guy dies. Then what? The B12 is then stuck feeding Memphis.
Your last point is definitely huge, how does ESPN deal with Fox. I hadn't considered that.