No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

[temery]

No idea, but if I read one more comment about our record "on the continent," as if the Hawaii games were meaningless scrimmages, my freakin' head is going to explode.

 

[uh-no]

Finally a fellow realist. Let’s not all intoxicate over a win against Seton Hall. These are usually the same fans that want to jump off a cliff when they lose a game

this is what a uconn team SHOULD be able to do against a team that is 1-12 in conference and coming off 9 straightt losses....but we didn't. Maybe if we had, we'd be talking about a 6 or 7 seed. but we didn't.

 

[IndyLives]

1 more win in the BE Tournament and we're at least a 7-seed. Period.

The Committee would get crucified if they put UConn going for a 3-peat to play a 1-seed in the 2nd round on the road.

 

[RuffRuff]

this is what a uconn team SHOULD be able to do against a team that is 1-12 in conference and coming off 9 straightt losses....but we didn't. Maybe if we had, we'd be talking about a 6 or 7 seed. but we didn't.

Well yeah - too many welts taken this year. And I haven’t seen a display quite yet that has me believing, just hoping.

 

[RuffRuff]

I don’t follow this stuff closely at all anymore but the reality seems to be that there’s nothing in our resume that would give us an expectation of being pleasantly surprised on selection Sunday. I want to win a game next Saturday night because it seems like the only shot we’ve got of getting off the 8/9 line. My thinking on it is not much more complicated than that.

Our wins away at Marquette and Creighton were impressive - don’t think anyone won at Creighton otherwise this year. Maybe Nebraska.

 

[RuffRuff]

1 more win in the BE Tournament and we're at least a 7-seed. Period.

The Committee would get crucified if they put UConn going for a 3-peat to play a 1-seed in the 2nd round on the road.

Um no.

 

[ahmed69]

I am optimistic uconn will get a favorable seeding. There are people who sit courtside that are legit terrified of dan hurley.

 

[metsfan2323]

Win the BE tournament and we are no worse than a 6 seed. I'd rather have a 6 seed versus a 5 seed.

 

[uh-no]

I am optimistic uconn will get a favorable seeding. There are people who sit courtside that are legit terrified of dan hurley.

perhaps you've forgotten auburn being our 4 seed last year...

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I am optimistic uconn will get a favorable seeding. There are people who sit courtside that are legit terrified of dan hurley.

The committee is not bending over backwards to do the Big East a favor.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I think we are the better team but they have a better resume, albeit front loaded in season. How committee evaluates is TBD.

I looked at Marquette's resume when putting together some of the 7 seeds were are competing against. A quick side by side:

Record: UConn 22-9, 14-6 in the BE; Home: 14-2/Road/Neutral: 8-7
Marquette 22-9, 13-7 in the BE; Home:14-3 /Road Neutral: 8-6

NET: Uconn 32; Marquette 25

Quad 1: UConn 5-5; Marquette 5-7
Quad 2: UConn 7-3; Marquette 7-2
Quad 3: UConn 4-1: Marquette 5-0
Quad 4: UConn 6-0; Marquette 5-0

In summary, same amount of Quad 1 wins and Quad 2 wins. Essentially the same record away from home. UConn has the Q3 loss. UConn has a better conference record, in a true round robin league.

I'll give Marquette a slight edge (for the purpose of this exercise I'm not factoring in the head to head results) but it's not worth 3 seeds like Palm is giving them. And I think Xavier is going to beat them on Thursday afternoon.

 

[Kemba15]

I looked at Marquette's resume when putting together some of the 7 seeds were are competing against. A quick side by side:

Record: UConn 22-9, 14-6 in the BE; Home: 14-2/Road/Neutral: 8-7
Marquette 22-9, 13-7 in the BE; Home:14-3 /Road Neutral: 8-6

NET: Uconn 32; Marquette 25

Quad 1: UConn 5-5; Marquette 5-7
Quad 2: UConn 7-3; Marquette 7-2
Quad 3: UConn 4-1: Marquette 5-0
Quad 4: UConn 6-0; Marquette 5-0

In summary, same amount of Quad 1 wins and Quad 2 wins. Essentially the same record away from home. UConn has the Q3 loss. UConn has a better conference record, in a true round robin league.

I'll give Marquette a slight edge (for the purpose of this exercise I'm not factoring in the head to head results) but it's not worth 3 seeds like Palm is giving them. And I think Xavier is going to beat them on Thursday afternoon.

Good breakdown. How about the non-conference? Have to believe this is the reason why we’re behind them in NET

 

[Yukonrob]

Win the BE tournament and we are no worse than a 6 seed. I'd rather have a 6 seed versus a 5 seed.

Why would you rather have a 6?

 

[UCLJ0211]

Why would you rather have a 6?

12/5 is a notoriously tough first round matchup. Usually a top team from a smaller conference or a power 5 team that got hot to end the regular season and make the tourney.

 

[Umami Zen]

Can't control what Committee is gonna do. All UConn can do is win the next three games and let the chips fall where they will. Hate to say it but I think there may be a little UConn fatigue going on this year inside of CBB. We have to control our own destiny by winning.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I don’t even know what too much reliance on the metrics means. The humans on the selection committee rank all the teams and then the aggregate of that plus adjustments determines the bracket. They use the metrics, eye test, bias, etc. We were 8 in the NET on selection Sunday 2023 and got a 4, so they didn’t go by the metrics, but of course you’re unhappy about that.

If we had Marquette’s resume and they had ours, and we weren’t the higher seed you’d be on here crying about that.

I’m happy Samson is playing the best ball of his career and Karaban got his shot back, but we beat the 2 worst teams in conference, plus GT without Sorber, and a marquette team that couldn’t make a 3 to save their life. Not sure how that makes us an obvious top 25 team.

Meh.

The 4 seed was silly. They were clearly a top 10 team and everyone thought so. I am making a case why I think they are on the 7 line right now, not the 8.

I can see them get to a 6, which is what you want. Tough games, but you stay away from a 1 or 2 in first weekend.

6 is top 24. I don’t think eye tests says that is unreasonable. Especially if they make big east final by beating Creighton for second time.

I think the only thing guaranteed is the floor is a 9 heading into big east tourney and the ceiling probably a 6. They are a 7 now, IMO.

 

[Alum86]

Yeah but keep in mind Round 2 for Duke would be happening in Raleigh. Might as well just have the game at Cameron.

Correct. My bad. East Regional sweet 16 and 8 in Newark, 1st and second rounds in Raleigh prior. That would continue the history of us being hosed and placed somewhere in Carolina having to get by UNC, Duke. Or out West in Cali against UCLA their magical year.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

One thing that I'm curious about is how the committee handles the 12 (plus or minus) SEC schools that end up in the dance. They'll need to allow for the possibility of a few SEC vs SEC second round matchups. I imagine they'll try to have one and two seeded SEC avoid these, which may lead to some manipulation of placements (intenionally moving SEC schools from the seven and eight seed lines).

I don't think we could fall to a nine seed (although it really wouldn't be any different than an eight) and I Imagine that the above SEC situation would make moving up to a six more difficult than normal. We'll either be an eight seed or a seven seed, the only question will be where.

 

[gsmooth]

Correct. My bad. East Regional sweet 16 and 8 in Newark, 1st and second rounds in Raleigh prior. That would continue the history of us being hosed and placed somewhere in Carolina having to get by UNC, Duke. Or out West in Cali against UCLA their magical year.

To be fair it goes both ways. In 2014 UConn had the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in MSG and last year UConn was in Boston for those games. In reading the UNC boards last year, they wanted to avoid the #2 seed in the East knowing UConn would have home court advantage in Boston. I was in Boston last year for both of those games and trust me it was a huge home court advantage for UConn.

Having said all of that, I don't want UConn playing Duke in Raleigh.

 

[gsmooth]

One thing that I'm curious about is how the committee handles the 12 (plus or minus) SEC schools that end up in the dance. They'll need to allow for the possibility of a few SEC vs SEC second round matchups. I imagine they'll try to have one and two seeded SEC avoid these, which may lead to some manipulation of placements (intenionally moving SEC schools from the seven and eight seed lines).

I don't think we could fall to a nine seed (although it really wouldn't be any different than an eight) and I Imagine that the above SEC situation would make moving up to a six more difficult than normal. We'll either be an eight seed or a seven seed, the only question will be where.

The answer is here if you have time to watch it. But I saw bits and pieces of it and I remember Gavitt saying with so many teams from the same conference in the tournament, it is inevitable they will face each other before the Sweet 16. He goes into more detail in this video.

 

[caw]

I looked at Marquette's resume when putting together some of the 7 seeds were are competing against. A quick side by side:

Record: UConn 22-9, 14-6 in the BE; Home: 14-2/Road/Neutral: 8-7
Marquette 22-9, 13-7 in the BE; Home:14-3 /Road Neutral: 8-6

NET: Uconn 32; Marquette 25

Quad 1: UConn 5-5; Marquette 5-7
Quad 2: UConn 7-3; Marquette 7-2
Quad 3: UConn 4-1: Marquette 5-0
Quad 4: UConn 6-0; Marquette 5-0

In summary, same amount of Quad 1 wins and Quad 2 wins. Essentially the same record away from home. UConn has the Q3 loss. UConn has a better conference record, in a true round robin league.

I'll give Marquette a slight edge (for the purpose of this exercise I'm not factoring in the head to head results) but it's not worth 3 seeds like Palm is giving them. And I think Xavier is going to beat them on Thursday afternoon.

Don't they split Quad 1 and Quad 2 games into two groups these days? Pretty sure they do.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

In 2011 we played Cincinnati in the second round (Marquette also played Syracuse in round two) but both were three seeds vs eleven seeds. I believe it was intentional that neither Pitt (a one seed) nor ND (a two seed) was aligned to face a BE school prior to the regional finals (neither made it that far). This is conjecture on my part, but I believe that any SEC school that lands a one or two seed will not have the possibility of another SEC prior to the regional finals (elite eight).

 

[Rasputin]

The committee is not bending over backwards to do the Big East a favor.

This 100%. Rule number #1 in seeding the tourney is screw the Big East. Of course, Rule # 2 is overrate the Big10.

 

[7774]

Meh.

The 4 seed was silly. They were clearly a top 10 team and everyone thought so. I am making a case why I think they are on the 7 line right now, not the 8.

I can see them get to a 6, which is what you want. Tough games, but you stay away from a 1 or 2 in first weekend.

6 is top 24. I don’t think eye tests says that is unreasonable. Especially if they make big east final by beating Creighton for second time.

I think the only thing guaranteed is the floor is a 9 heading into big east tourney and the ceiling probably a 6. They are a 7 now, IMO.

The aggregate of the 229 entries on bracket matrix that year had us as the first 4 seed. And the committee gave us a 4 seed. So I guess the “everyone thought we were a top 10 team“ didn’t include those people in the “everyone”. You seem to be saying that when we played our best, we were one of the best teams, which of course is true. But…

 

[JohnFSilver]

The aggregate of the 229 entries on bracket matrix that year had us as the first 4 seed. And the committee gave us a 4 seed. So I guess the “everyone thought we were a top 10 team“ didn’t include those people in the “everyone”. You seem to be saying that when we played our best, we were one of the best teams, which of course is true. But…

Confirmation bias is what is happening. This is like polling when we have herding.

People take the metrics and don’t want to put a team somewhere where they are challenged. It is easy to just go chalk.

We’ll see how seeding works. Sec and big 10 schedules are so filled with top 100 teams, it kind of skewers.

Would this UConn team be 10th in the sec? That is worth a conversation imo.

I am more bullish than most on UConn here. I would shoot for a 6 seed.