No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach? | The Boneyard

No Question We’re In Now…Is a 7 or 6 Seed In Reach?

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UCLJ0211

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If we weren’t a lock already we certainly are now. It’s been discussed on here a lot but what are our chances now at a 7 or even 6 seed? Another quad 1 win now gives us 5 for the season- so we have that going for us.

Assuming we beat SH this weekend, I still think if we make it to the BET final we are a 7, win it all and we have a good shot at a 6 seed.
 
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No I don't think 7 is a stretch. I think if we get to the finals of the BE Tourney. If we win we are a 6 seed but first we have to beat Seton Hall which we didn't do before.
 
6 is for sure not out of reach. Take care of shall AS THEY SHOULD on Saturday and get to the finals. I think winning a major conference tourney even tends to help a team move up a seed line, maybe to a 5 for UConn depending on what happens to these other teams.

Lose the next 2 and it's an 8 or 9
1-1, 8
2-1, 7
3-1 but with a shall loss is a 7
3-1 finals loss, 6
4-0, likely 6, outside shot at 5
 
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Travelman6 said:
6 is for sure not out of reach. Take care of shall AS THEY SHOULD on Saturday and get to the finals. I think winning a major conference tourney even tends to help a team move up a seed line, maybe to a 5 for UConn depending on what happens to these other teams.

Lose the next 2 and it's an 8 or 9
1-1, 8
2-1, 7
3-1 but with a shall loss is a 7
3-1 finals loss, 6
4-0, likely 6, outside shot at 5
Expand ...

I love autocorrect.
 
7 is probably ceiling.

The committee has shown what they think of the Big East so I wouldn’t expect any favors. Add in the increased weighting that metrics play and It certainly doesn’t help our case. Those Colorado, SH, and to some extent Dayton really torpedoed the metrics to where they couldn’t be salvaged. Couple that with the back half of the Big East being trash, and not blowing out teams we should and it’s a recipe for disaster. We beat a top 20 team last night and It hardly moved the needle on Kenpom for example.
 
Today our numbers:

NET: 34
KenPom: 37
ESPN BPI: 20

Still on the 8/9 line, but slowly leaning to the 7 line. Beat Seton Hall on Saturday. Won't help us much metric wise, but it's another step in the right direction.
 
Travelman6 said:
6 is for sure not out of reach. Take care of shall AS THEY SHOULD on Saturday and get to the finals. I think winning a major conference tourney even tends to help a team move up a seed line, maybe to a 5 for UConn depending on what happens to these other teams. Many of the teams we are up against had very good wins this week, BYU at ISU, Illinois at UM.

Lose the next 2 and it's an 8 or 9
1-1, 8
2-1, 7
3-1 but with a shall loss is a 7
3-1 finals loss, 6
4-0, likely 6, outside shot at 5
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7 is max. It doesn’t help when the Ole Miss’ of the world beat Tenn last night. We have to hope teams on the 7 and 8 line lose too.

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8Connecticut
 
I feel like we moved up to being a solid 8… no longer 9… that’s it. Contingent on other non-UConn games this week.
 
If we win the Big East we can get as high as 5. Those Colorado and Seton Hall losses are albatross games. I think both Colorado and Seton Hall are 2-17 in their conferences.
 
This tells me we probably need to make the BET finals (and beat SHU of course) to have a shot at a 7. But that became a lot more realistic after last night.
 
I think it’s optimistic to assume a BET run would bump our seed line up much. The committee has shown time and again they don’t give much consideration (for seeding purposes) to conference tournament wins. They have the bracket virtually finalized by Thursday or so, it seems.

Is a 7 possible? For sure. But without doing a deep dive I’m not sure even a BET win would get us all the way to a 6.
 
Don't take this the wrong way but I believe anyone worrying about what seed we get in the tournament is wasting time that could be put to far better use debating quality of pizzas, IPA or single malts.

If we put things together we'll be capable of making a good run if we're seed 4, 14, or anywhere between the two. If we don't, we won't get very far regardless of what number is next to our name.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Don't take this the wrong way but I believe anyone worrying about what seed we get in the tournament is wasting time that could be put to far better use debating quality of pizzas, IPA or single malts.

If we put things together we'll be capable of making a good run if we're seed 4, 14, or anywhere between the two. If we don't, we won't get very far regardless of what number is next to our name.
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Any potential run comes to a diffused fast when you have to play one of the best 4 teams in the second round. The rosters are on those teams are just too good.

After watching Florida last night they feel a firm 1 seed and top 4 team. They are really good, would put them in front of Houston in terms of talent level and roster versatility. There are cracks after those top 4.
 
Just my gut feeling, but if anything I believe the committee will give UConn the benefit of the doubt and overseed them. I think it benefits the tournament, it benefits the top seeds, and us for the committee to place us on the 7 line vs 8. I don’t care how good Auburn and Duke are, neither wants to see UConn in the second round.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Don't take this the wrong way but I believe anyone worrying about what seed we get in the tournament is wasting time that could be put to far better use debating quality of pizzas, IPA or single malts.

If we put things together we'll be capable of making a good run if we're seed 4, 14, or anywhere between the two. If we don't, we won't get very far regardless of what number is next to our name.
Expand ...
Sure, you have the play the game. But if you look at probabilities, the road to succeed is far easier as a 7 than a 8 or 9.
 
Need 1 more Q1 type win for a 7 seed I think....so make BE Finals. The first BE tourney game won't move the needle much (assuming beat SH and are 3 seed) but BE Semis should provide a quality opponent. Moving to a 7 seed is also dependent on teams currently on 7/8 S-Curve line ahead of UConn to move down. Win the BE tourney and a 6 seed is in play dependent on what others do.

If history tells us anything the committee won't move seeds around too much based on Conference tourney results unless they have to....so force them to move UConn off the 8 line, don't expect them to because we're UConn.

That said wtf really knows...the committee may have UConn as a 7 seed on their first bracket, bur safer to force them to seed 7 or higher by winning games.
 
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UCLJ0211 said:
If we weren’t a lock already we certainly are now. It’s been discussed on here a lot but what are our chances now at a 7 or even 6 seed? Another quad 1 win now gives us 5 for the season- so we have that going for us.

Assuming we beat SH this weekend, I still think if we make it to the BET final we are a 7, win it all and we have a good shot at a 6 seed.
Expand ...
Also does closing out with a win get us back in the top 25?
 
Jerry Palm is officially a clown...updated Bracketology this morning still has Marquette as a 5 seed, Creighton as a 8 seed & UConn still a 9 seed.

I'll chalk it up to complete laziness. Of the 3 teams UConn has the best Q1 & Q2 combined at 12-8, Marq 11-8 & Creighton 10-9. Marquette is ahead of UConn, but UConn has passed Creighton at this point. UConn should be an 8 seed or better on all brackets right now.

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Jerry Palm may be a clown. But so is the committee. There are a million amateurs who put so much more thought into this than the people actually tasked with putting it together.

We agonize over whether a win or loss in the semis puts us above Mississippi State or whatever, and meanwhile the committee had us slotted in somewhere three days earlier and never bothered to revisit. This stuff happens every year.
 
Let's say we take care of Seton Hall on Saturday. We'd be 22-9. Now BET starts and we're the 3 so we play Villanova and win for 23-9. Next up is likely Creighton who is less scary anywhere than @ Creighton and we win for 24-9. We play St. John's and lose in a good one, 24-10.

While the committee tends not to care about conference tournaments they do consider:
1. Who wins the auto-bid (e.g., if Xavier runs the table they are in).
2. Is a team peaking or fading at this point in the season
3. Total wins, quality of them, Quad1, etc. Beating Villanova and Creighton helps more than losing to St. John's.

Bottom line is if this scenario plays out we are likely a 7.
 
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