No fans at NCAA men's or women's tournament [merged thread]

[meyers7]

I know I will be in the smallest of minorities, but I don't think anything should have been or should be cancelled. Everyone should expect to get the virus. I expect to get the virus just like I expect to get the flu every year. Even when I get a flu shot, I still usually end up getting the flu. 20,000+ people die from the flu every year just in the U.S. At last count, we are no where close to that number worldwide for the virus.

From what I have read, it last about 14 days. If everyone went on and got it, in 14 days the crisis would be over.

Doesn't quite work that way. Normal flu does kill around 20-40K each year, but the fatality rate of those getting the flu is less than 1%. The fatality rate for Covid-19 is about 3.4%.

So, if everyone in the US (330 million) were to get the Covid-19, then about 11 million people would die.

And that 3.4% is an average of the different age groups. Like < 9 yo is basically 0. But 70-79 yo is around 8% and 80 and above is 14%. That would probably wipe out half the BY posters.

 

[meyers7]

Welp.... guess we can shift to the BY off-season mode

I was gonna start a music thread about dancing. Don't think there are that many songs about being sick though.

 

[JordyG]

Doesn't quite work that way. Normal flu does kill around 20-40K each year, but the fatality rate of those getting the flu is less than 1%. The fatality rate for Covid-19 is about 3.4%.

So, if everyone in the US (330 million) were to get the Covid-19, then about 11 million people would die.

Yes and no. Virus' are tricky things to speculate upon, and their propagation rates don't always add up. However, I've seen numbers that say COVID-19's mortality rate is closer to just over 2%, whereas the Spanish or Asian flu numbers were close to 4%. Of course the 1917 flu was the weirdest, cruelest flu man has ever seen. COVID-19 is a more typical flu that kill those at risk: We elderly with pre-existing health conditions, and the very young. The 1917 killed those in the prime of their lives, people aged 17-25, and acted far more rapidly. Some were healthy at dawn and dead by dusk. Perhaps 25-30 million people died world wide. Some say closer to 50 million. So far, and thankfully, COVID-19 just isn't showing those type of numbers

 

[JordyG]

I was gonna start a music thread about dancing. Don't think there are that many songs about being sick though.

I wanna scream.

 

[meyers7]

Yes and no. Virus' are tricky things to speculate upon, and their propagation rates don't always add up. However, I've seen numbers that say COVID-19's mortality rate is closer to just over 2%, whereas the Spanish or Asian flu numbers were close to 4%. Of course the 1917 flu was the weirdest, cruelest flu man has ever seen. COVID-19 is a more typical flu that kill those at risk: We elderly with pre-existing health conditions, and the very young. The 1917 killed those in the prime of their lives, people aged 17-25, and acted far more rapidly. Some were healthy at dawn and dead by dusk. Perhaps 25-30 million people died world wide. Some say closer to 50 million. So far, and thankfully, COVID-19 just isn't showing those type of numbers

Well how many die (gross numbers) is also a function of how many get infected. The "Spanish" flu ran for about 2 years 17-18. This Corona has only been going a couple months. Hopefully, unlike the Spanish flu, we don't let it run for 2 years.

The numbers' I've seen in the articals I've read, are between 3-4%. But less would be better.

 

[JordyG]

Well how many die (gross numbers) is also a function of how many get infected. The "Spanish" flu ran for about 2 years 17-18. This Corona has only been going a couple months. Hopefully, unlike the Spanish flu, we don't let it run for 2 years.

The numbers' I've seen in the articals I've read, are between 3-4%. But less would be better.

Yeah. I'm a big believer though that the number of reported is very low. I'm convinced that 2 weeks ago I had this virus and it was a mild case, which I never reported. I think the great majority of infections will be extremely mild. Once the testing begins in earnest I believe the 3.4% reported now will drop to around 2%. I think Italy is a prime example, and more indicative of the real mortality rate.

 

[ShmiCO]

So far this season (per the CDC) we've had 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths from flu. So about 1% of total cases are hospitalized, and only 0.06% result in a fatality. That's quite a bit less than the usual "1% for flu" approximation folks like to use.

Yeah. I'm a big believer though that the number of reported is very low.

Me too. For COVID-19, per John's Hopkins et al, we're up to 1397 confirmed cases with 39 fatalities... 2.8%. I highlight "confirmed" because testing in the US got off to a pretty slow start compared to many other countries. If we had a higher testing and reporting rate, I expect that fatality rate number would drop significantly.

 

[JordyG]

Well one thing I do know. When the vaccine for this come out, and it will, and sooner than you think, the rush to get it will overwhelm every outlet in the world. Donovan Mitchell just tested positive by the way.

 

[wbball novice]

More visuals!

9 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic

"What symptoms are most common, which groups are most at risk, and more. " Some encouraging news at chart #3 -- China rates are declining (keeping in mind that the epidemic there began in January).

Also, an explanation of why it isn't a good idea to ignore precautions and let everybody get infected at the same time:

Coronavirus control measures aren’t pointless – just slowing down the pandemic could save millions of lives

 

[UcMiami]

Doesn't quite work that way. Normal flu does kill around 20-40K each year, but the fatality rate of those getting the flu is less than 1%. The fatality rate for Covid-19 is about 3.4%.

So, if everyone in the US (330 million) were to get the Covid-19, then about 11 million people would die.

Yes, but you understate/overstate. It looks like this virus with a perfectly functional health system may kill at a rate of about 1 - 1.5 % which is ten times the normal rate for a bad flu season (0.13%.) And Flu season is spaced out over about six months relieving the health system of overload. If 10% of the US population (33 million in the US) in the next 2 months got this, the hospital system would be overwhelmed and the death toll would climb exponentially to the 3.5% that happened in Wuhan or even higher as the staff would have 3 or 4 or 5 patients waiting for the same respirator for every respirator in every hospital in the country and would start having to choose one of those patients with the best likelihood of surviving to give treatment to as the others died.

Lombardy in Italy is not a backward country/region, but their ICU units were overwhelmed with only around 5000 confirmed cases.

So talk of everyone getting the virus, or just 10% of the US population getting the virus would be overwhelming. The 2017-2019 flu infected 27% of the world population over two+ years and killed somewhere between 1 and 6% of the world population (no one is really sure.) In places that prepared and were able to slow the spread the death toll was reduced.

 

[Carnac]

Ticketmaster (or whoever) getting to keep “applicable fees” is some bullfeces.

Right! They should eat any and all applicable fees. It’s not the end user’s fault that the ticket purchases must be refunded. No one (entity) should profit from this. 100% refunds for everyone that purchased tickets. It’s not only good business, it’s fair business.

 

[CajunHusky]

Well how many die (gross numbers) is also a function of how many get infected. The "Spanish" flu ran for about 2 years 17-18. This Corona has only been going a couple months. Hopefully, unlike the Spanish flu, we don't let it run for 2 years.

The numbers' I've seen in the articals I've read, are between 3-4%. But less would be better.

I'm reminded of Dr Strangelove where George C Scott argues for a nuclear war stating "acceptable" causalties of 20 30 million tops.

Our bodies have a acquired immunity to multiple flu viruses. Vaccinations are big as well. Where new strains arise that is where problems magnify exponentially.

I 've seen estimated mortality rates >4% those aged over 60 while virtually 0% under 30. and the symptoms so mild they don't get diagnosed.

However the virus load spread by those youngsters is huge. I went in Tuesday for flu symptoms and the doctor I saw painted a grim picture. They really have no idea how many people are carrying the virus. The only people getting tested are those with severe symptoms at high risk. And despite all you hear there really aren't any testing kits available. so that 1000 or so figure may just be the tip of the iceberg that is actually 10000 or 100000.

The best solution may just be time. Slow the infection rate as much as possible that is flatten the curve so that treatment facilites and staff are not overwhelmed and to gain time to develop treatments, get the virus to "burn out" and develop a vaccine.

 

[triaddukefan]

to inject a bit of levity

 

[OldAlum]

I know I will be in the smallest of minorities, but I don't think anything should have been or should be cancelled. Everyone should expect to get the virus. I expect to get the virus just like I expect to get the flu every year. Even when I get a flu shot, I still usually end up getting the flu. 20,000+ people die from the flu every year just in the U.S. At last count, we are no where close to that number worldwide for the virus.

From what I have read, it last about 14 days. If everyone went on and got it, in 14 days the crisis would be over.

If everyone got it at the same time, those with severe forms would quickly overwhelm hospitals and medical facilities. People would die because they could not get a ventilator since they were all in use. The guy in Wilton (40 something years old) who seemed to have contracted it in CA is in a coma and his wife and infant twins are quarantined.

 

[j66kicker]

I know I will be in the smallest of minorities, but I don't think anything should have been or should be cancelled. Everyone should expect to get the virus. I expect to get the virus just like I expect to get the flu every year. Even when I get a flu shot, I still usually end up getting the flu. 20,000+ people die from the flu every year just in the U.S. At last count, we are no where close to that number worldwide for the virus.

From what I have read, it last about 14 days. If everyone went on and got it, in 14 days the crisis would be over.

Likely the smallest minority possible. China has 80,000+ confirmed cases (.006% of their population) and 3,000+ confirmed deaths (.0002% of their population). They are now claiming the spread is "curbed" in Wuhan and Hubei, their hardest-hit provinces (not sure what "curbed" means, but apparently there's some relief that things are improving). They did this by basically canceling everything - closed down factories, businesses, schools, restaurants, travel. They prioritized the health of their people over the health of their economy.

They are now starting to reopen some factories, etc. I got an e-mail from Starbucks yesterday telling me everything they are doing in the USA, and what they learned form their Chinese operations, some of which are now reopening.

3,000 deaths out of 80,000 reported cases is 3.75%. Extrapolating, if everyone in China got it that would be over 52 million deaths - probably a lot more, since their health care system would be beyond overwhelmed. JMO, but to me it seems like planning for everyone to get it is way past simple extremism.

 

[triaddukefan]

 

[Fiftyish]

Yikes !!!! Here we go.

 

[Longtime fan]

Women's tournament was already in the smaller arena (Smoothie King Center where the Pelicans play) vs the New Orleans Superdome.

As you all likely know by now, Duke University has withdrawn from the NCAA tournament. This could start a snow-ball effect.

 

[Plebe]

Well, if we can't have a tournament and we've seen our last basketball game, I would at least support this idea:

 

[Kaizen]

 

[oldude]

Well, if we can't have a tournament and we've seen our last basketball game, I would at least support this idea:

Not sure how you can delay the tournament indefinitely considering that the WNBA draft occurs soon after the tournament ends. There are also logistical issues with venues, hotels, transportation as well as potential conflicts relative to television coverage. It’s much easier to cancel the tournament than to reschedule it.

 

[triaddukefan]

Its over

 

[wbball novice]

NCAA has canceled men's and women's tournament. Per CNN

 

[j66kicker]

As you all likely know by now, Duke University has withdrawn from the NCAA tournament. This could start a snow-ball effect.

Don't you have to be IN the tournament in order to withdraw from it?

 

[triaddukefan]

Don't you have to be IN the tournament in order to withdraw from it?

 

[FridaFriend]

I would like to express my appreciation to people on this board for the thoughtful and intelligent manner in which they have discussed coronavirus. It has really helped me think about the impact of the virus on my life and on the lives of the people I love. It has provided a source of sane discussion of reality versus the crazy extremes I have encountered elsewhere.

Also I appreciate the compassion and care for the women in sports that are shown by posts on this board. This is really good place to visit in these difficult times.

 

[triaddukefan]

You can always count on NC State fans to provide some levity @LETTERL

 

[uconnfan68]

NCAA has canceled men's and women's tournament. Per CNN

Our F4 streak remains alive. ;^)

 

[Alydar]

Yes and no. Virus' are tricky things to speculate upon, and their propagation rates don't always add up. However, I've seen numbers that say COVID-19's mortality rate is closer to just over 2%, whereas the Spanish or Asian flu numbers were close to 4%. Of course the 1917 flu was the weirdest, cruelest flu man has ever seen. COVID-19 is a more typical flu that kill those at risk: We elderly with pre-existing health conditions, and the very young. The 1917 killed those in the prime of their lives, people aged 17-25, and acted far more rapidly. Some were healthy at dawn and dead by dusk. Perhaps 25-30 million people died world wide. Some say closer to 50 million. So far, and thankfully, COVID-19 just isn't showing those type of numbers

My mother was 3 when she, her brother and parents all had the spanish flu. Her father died. South Eastern CT got hit hard due to the naval base.
Two things about this COVID virus (CV) as with many viruses; there is usually a lull in new cases during the warmer months but it returns again in the fall, sometimes stronger as with the Sp flu. Second, the mortality rate increases a lot if the health care system becomes overloaded. The actually fatality rate won't be known for a year. The way to prevent that is to slow the spread down. Masks may not prevent catching the virus but they do a pretty good job of not spreading it so if everyone wore a mask a lot fewer people would catch it, slowing the spread. But we have no masks because it was cheaper to have them made in another country, along with our pharmaceuticals.

 

[Longtime fan]

Don't you have to be IN the tournament in order to withdraw from it?

Not that it matters...but the Men were in it for sure.