Next Five Games

[August_West]

I’ve decided Villanova at home is kinda in the “have to win” category, if we drop that one to begin this stretch it could set us up for negative momentum with 2 real tough go’s on the road at X and providence days apart immediately after.

 

[HeGotGame]

This is why I thought it was crazy to think we'd be undefeated longer than Purdue. Purdue just played New Orleans, and has Florida A&M next, followed by Rutgers at home. We have a really tough stretch here.

We are talking about UConn games that go through January 11th. You are quoting Purdue's schedule through January 2nd. January 5 they play at Ohio State, a game Kenpom has them losing .

 

[auror]

From a purely statistical standpoint the odds are probably close to:

0-1 Wins - 2%
2 Wins - 8%
3 Wins - 25%
4 Wins - 40%
5: Wins - 25%

4-5 wins seems like a very reasonable expectation and 3 would be a bit disappointing IMO. Anything less than 3 is a disaster.

According to a probability calculator (KenPom odds that I simplified a tiny bit), yeah basically:

5 wins = 30.09%
4 wins - 41.71%
3 wins - 21.96%
2 wins - 5.48%
0-1 win - 0.68%

So we should win 4 or more ~72% of the time. I am afraid we'll drop 2 in this stretch, and it does seem that would be a decently large disappointment (less than 1/3 chance), unless we're a little bit overrated (which we probably are).

As mentioned, the Nova odds are actually relatively the same with Whitmore back. Creighton has also re-gained all the statistical ground they lost with Kalkbrenner out.

 

[The Moose]

22223 563 q reqw

 

[HuskyHawk]

We are talking about UConn games that go through January 11th. You are quoting Purdue's schedule through January 2nd. January 5 they play at Ohio State, a game Kenpom has them losing .

Yes, and we play 3 games we could lose before they play that one. If we win all three and Purdue survives OSU, then we’ve got two more tough games. I don’t know how good Penn State is.

 

[Waquoit]

I admit my anaysis goes no further than thinking "we got these guys".

 

[HeGotGame]

Yes, and we play 3 games we could lose before they play that one. If we win all three and Purdue survives OSU, then we’ve got two more tough games. I don’t know how good Penn State is.

Penn St is 34th in KenPom, which is higher than Nova (54th) and PC (63rd) and right in line with X (28th) and Marquette (27th)

 

[MTBingNinja]

5-0

 

[Chin Diesel]

It would be neat if there was a tool to run the next five games for all the top teams in the country and then compare their probabilities against UConn's probability.

 

[Rico444]

1-0

 

[Huskyforlife]

Take care of business Saturday, and I doubt 5-0 is in question.

 

[I Bleed Blue]

1-0

 

[I Bleed Blue]

Status report: 1-2

But we return home to hopefully stabilize the ship. Not a true a must win at home vs Creighton, but you gotta think it’s a pivotal point in the season. A win would do wonders for this team to get back on track. Follow that up with a good showing against Marquette and we’re right where many thought we’d be going into this 5 game stretch.

 

[mauconnfan]

Status report: 1-2

But we return home to hopefully stabilize the ship. Not a true a must win at home vs Creighton, but you gotta think it’s a pivotal point in the season. A win would do wonders for this team to get back on track. Follow that up with a good showing against Marquette and we’re right where many thought we’d be going into this 5 game stretch.

It’s as close to a must win this early in the season as you can get. Danny is 0-4 versus McDermott and if we lose this one the fact is after leaving Wisconsin we could be 3-4 in the Big East. And truthfully they haven’t played all that well even in the 3 wins. Time to put the big boy pants on and win one honestly. Staff included!

 

[bigknight3]

Need to burn this thread and hang the OP!

 

[husky429]

I said before we got into this stretch that we need to get to 3-2 for it to be successful. Still standing by that... it's just much harder now.

 

[AdamaNation]

It’s as close to a must win this early in the season as you can get. Danny is 0-4 versus McDermott and if we lose this one the fact is after leaving Wisconsin we could be 3-4 in the Big East. And truthfully they haven’t played all that well even in the 3 wins. Time to put the big boy pants on and win one honestly. Staff included!

No way Sampson isn’t suited up. Playing or not.

 

[bigknight3]

No way Sampson isn’t suited up. Playing or not.

Pretty sure Sampson isn't playing this season!