Next Five Games | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Next Five Games

Georgetown played as well as they can play and we went cold from the field for a long stretch. I wouldn't draw many conclusions for the rest of the season based on that game.
 
MrSec224 said:
I fear the Providence game because prob toughest place we will play AND it may be a look ahead spot to Creighton. BUT we should want to beat PC with similar fury so lets just beat em both
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@ Xavier is the tougher game and they match up better with us. Providence, albeit a tough environment, will only beat us if Bynum and Hopkins each go for 20+ which I don’t think happens. One might, not both.

I see 4-1 but wouldn’t be surprised at 3-2. As @BigErnMcCracken pointed out we are no secret anymore. Teams will learn how to gameplan and scheme to our weaknesses.
 
CTBasketball said:
@ Xavier is the tougher game and they match up better with us. Providence, albeit a tough environment, will only beat us if Bynum and Hopkins each go for 20+ which I don’t think happens. One might, not both.

I see 4-1 but wouldn’t be surprised at 3-2. As @BigErnMcCracken pointed out we are no secret anymore. Teams will learn how to gameplan and scheme to our weaknesses.
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Oh yeah Xaviers the better team for sure. Providence is just 30-1 in their last 31 at home so its a tough environment. Hopefully we have the place lined a little. I know ill be there.
 
Mostly concerned about Creighton because it's the fourth game in about ten days. But as has been stated, our guys just need to focus on the current game. It's just a lot of ball against good teams. So it's really the last two games but I haven't checked any schedules to see if either compare to ours.
 
Marquette has no picnic during this stretch but Creighton gets a pretty decent break in the schedule one game before they play us. Could be a little fresher but maybe the rotation can keep us from overextending anyone. Big picture.
 
Waquoit said:
I think the way we wear teams down is underestimated. And teams don't make shots like G'town did routinely. I don't think losing will teach us anything the G'town game didn't.
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Teams get tired of chasing us around.
 
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They are all tough. We struggled for a while against both Butler and GTown until they found a run. Someone will eventually not allow that run, it’s the Big East and the target is as big as ever.

Let’s see again who these guys are. 4-1 would be really good!
 
Waquoit said:
They can scheme and gameplan until the cows come home. Do they have the goods to implement whatever they come up with? And don't you think we are scheming their schemes?
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They might have the trace buster - but we have the trace buster buster!
 

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5-0. We are better than all of them at this point in the season and we have a chip on our shoulders. We owe Creighton and Providence and if we put down the hammer early, then everyone is chasing us.
 
Waquoit said:
They can scheme and gameplan until the cows come home. Do they have the goods to implement whatever they come up with? And don't you think we are scheming their schemes?
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Key to victory will be scheming their scheme of our schemes!
 
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I know we’re due for a loss, but part of me wonders if the Georgetown game was the wake-up call they needed. They coulda lost to a team hadn’t beat a P6 team in 26 games. I’m sure Hurley has drilled into them they can’t sleepwalk into conference games like that anymore. At Xavier is probably the best game left on our schedule, maybe a healthy Nova or Creighton down the road if they figure it out. Assuming we handle Nova at home, and come through against Xavier on the road, I won’t be scared of Providence or Marquette. 5-0 is probably unrealistic, but it’s not out of the question imo. Especially if they are the best team in the country.
 
Huskyforlife said:
I know we’re due for a loss, but part of me wonders if the Georgetown game was the wake-up call they needed. They coulda lost to a team hadn’t beat a P6 team in 26 games. I’m sure Hurley has drilled into them they can’t sleepwalk into conference games like that anymore. At Xavier is probably the best game left on our schedule, maybe a healthy Nova or Creighton down the road if they figure it out. Assuming we handle Nova at home, and come through against Xavier on the road, I won’t be scared of Providence or Marquette. 5-0 is probably unrealistic, but it’s not out of the question imo. Especially if they are the best team in the country.
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If we're as good as we all think then I wouldn't say going 5-0 is unrealistic at all. Maybe it's more likely we lose a game than not, but I'd like to think we have a pretty good shot.
 
From a purely statistical standpoint the odds are probably close to:

0-1 Wins - 2%
2 Wins - 8%
3 Wins - 25%
4 Wins - 40%
5: Wins - 25%

4-5 wins seems like a very reasonable expectation and 3 would be a bit disappointing IMO. Anything less than 3 is a disaster.
 
I’ve decided Villanova at home is kinda in the “have to win” category, if we drop that one to begin this stretch it could set us up for negative momentum with 2 real tough go’s on the road at X and providence days apart immediately after.
 
HuskyHawk said:
This is why I thought it was crazy to think we'd be undefeated longer than Purdue. Purdue just played New Orleans, and has Florida A&M next, followed by Rutgers at home. We have a really tough stretch here.
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We are talking about UConn games that go through January 11th. You are quoting Purdue's schedule through January 2nd. January 5 they play at Ohio State, a game Kenpom has them losing .
 
Matt1010 said:
From a purely statistical standpoint the odds are probably close to:

0-1 Wins - 2%
2 Wins - 8%
3 Wins - 25%
4 Wins - 40%
5: Wins - 25%

4-5 wins seems like a very reasonable expectation and 3 would be a bit disappointing IMO. Anything less than 3 is a disaster.
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According to a probability calculator (KenPom odds that I simplified a tiny bit), yeah basically:

5 wins = 30.09%
4 wins - 41.71%
3 wins - 21.96%
2 wins - 5.48%
0-1 win - 0.68%

So we should win 4 or more ~72% of the time. I am afraid we'll drop 2 in this stretch, and it does seem that would be a decently large disappointment (less than 1/3 chance), unless we're a little bit overrated (which we probably are).

As mentioned, the Nova odds are actually relatively the same with Whitmore back. Creighton has also re-gained all the statistical ground they lost with Kalkbrenner out.
 
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HeGotGame said:
We are talking about UConn games that go through January 11th. You are quoting Purdue's schedule through January 2nd. January 5 they play at Ohio State, a game Kenpom has them losing .
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Yes, and we play 3 games we could lose before they play that one. If we win all three and Purdue survives OSU, then we’ve got two more tough games. I don’t know how good Penn State is.
 
I admit my anaysis goes no further than thinking "we got these guys".
 
HuskyHawk said:
Yes, and we play 3 games we could lose before they play that one. If we win all three and Purdue survives OSU, then we’ve got two more tough games. I don’t know how good Penn State is.
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Penn St is 34th in KenPom, which is higher than Nova (54th) and PC (63rd) and right in line with X (28th) and Marquette (27th)
 
It would be neat if there was a tool to run the next five games for all the top teams in the country and then compare their probabilities against UConn's probability.
 
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Status report: 1-2

But we return home to hopefully stabilize the ship. Not a true a must win at home vs Creighton, but you gotta think it’s a pivotal point in the season. A win would do wonders for this team to get back on track. Follow that up with a good showing against Marquette and we’re right where many thought we’d be going into this 5 game stretch.
 
I Bleed Blue said:
Status report: 1-2

But we return home to hopefully stabilize the ship. Not a true a must win at home vs Creighton, but you gotta think it’s a pivotal point in the season. A win would do wonders for this team to get back on track. Follow that up with a good showing against Marquette and we’re right where many thought we’d be going into this 5 game stretch.
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It’s as close to a must win this early in the season as you can get. Danny is 0-4 versus McDermott and if we lose this one the fact is after leaving Wisconsin we could be 3-4 in the Big East. And truthfully they haven’t played all that well even in the 3 wins. Time to put the big boy pants on and win one honestly. Staff included!
 
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