New Mexico St (in Buffalo)

[CardiacAndre7]

Preliminary line on DK, for what it's worth, is UConn -7.

Seems about right, maybe a little low.

Edit: Arkansas only -5.5 vs. Vermont in the 4/13 game in our pod. Shows you how favorable Vegas thinks this 5/12 matchup is for us.

I said earlier this week that Vermont is gonna be very tough. They won each of their American East tourney games by 30+

 

[superjohn]

Absolutely nobody respects Providence. Nobody.

Except for Seth Davis.

 

[navery12]

 

[UconnFanDC]

Sanogo, Jackson and Martin should be able to dominate the inside against NMSU.

 

[Dove]

If Hurley had us go 14-4 in the WAC many would be calling for his head on a pike. Before today, I couldn't name a scholl in it.

NMSU only played 2 games in the conference tourney and won both. Beat Canyon State and Abilene Christian.

I am not worried about Game 1 or Game 2.

Sweet 16, baby!!!

 

[millertime7774]

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[aburks41]

If Archie Miller knew anything about basketball he would still be coaching

 

[Ratso]

Buffalo was good to us

 

[Vuce]

Wish it was a different 12 seed...NMSU is under ranked. Gonna be a difficult game but im excited to be in the dance for the 2nd year in a row.

I feel like 12 seeds would be 5 seeds if they were in different conferences.

Would love to see Vermont in the 2nd game.

Which 12 seed would you have preferred? I want to track this and see how it works out

 

[AdamaNation]

You never know how it's going to go but I like this region for us.

I saw west. And duke. I’m good. Let’s roll.

 

[methodology]

Should be about a 9-10 point spread.

Hopefully Vermont shocks the razorbacks and gives UConn an easier road

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

What's hilarious to me is Vermont would crush New Mexico St. It wouldn't even be close. 8 of Vermont's top 10 players are grad students or seniors.

 

[storrsroars]

Yup, here's the link to their board's reaction: 12 seed

The only actual analysis provided so far in that thread provided by NMSUAGGIE1:

I have probably watched more UConn games than most as my wife is a UConn grad. While I love Will and Alok, Sanogo is on another level and they can’t guard him. Tyrese Martin or Andre Jackson will guard Teddy.

They go 8 or 9 deep. They have Polley and Hawkins who are very good scorers off the bench. If we get Cole in foul trouble we will have a chance. Gaffney their backup PG is having an awful year and doesn’t do well when pressed.

 

[Friarsnoop]

I've seen New Mexico State play a number of times, including against GCU the other night. They try to control the pace. Rice, Teddy Allen, and McCants all handle the ball and are decent passers. They'll try to hang close and use their veteran leadership down the stretch.
If you guys get it early, you should run away from them. McCants will give Sanogo a bit of trouble, but they have no one to stay with Cole. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for 25+.

 

[willie99]

Except for Seth Davis.

Who picked Gonzaga vs AZ for the title

24th consecutive year he has Gonzaga getting there

 

[gsmooth]

Absolutely nobody respects Providence. Nobody.

I wonder if that line is too low. However, has providence blown anyone out besides Creighton at the Dunk and DePaul in early January?

 

[auror]

Their conference tounament semis are on YouTube

 

[auror]

And the conference tournament finals

 

[August_West]

If Hurley had us go 14-4 in the WAC many would be calling for his head on a pike. Before today, I couldn't name a scholl in it.

NMSU only played 2 games in the conference tourney and won both. Beat Canyon State and Abilene Christian.

I am not worried about Game 1 or Game 2.

Sweet 16, baby!!!

Shut up dove.

You wouldn’t know a tough matchup if it bit you in the ass.

 

[bendm]

We’re getting to the final 4
NMSt > UVM > Memphis > TT

 

[drayenob]

Kenpom has us winning 70-64

When New Mexico St.
has the ball​

Category	NMST Offense	Connecticut Defense	D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency	107.8 87	94.6 35	103.1
Avg. Poss Length	18.4 281	18.0 275	17.6
Four Factors
Effective FG%:	52.2 79	45.7 25	50.0
Turnover %:	20.7 313	18.0 204	18.4
Off. Reb. %:	33.3 39	27.5 148	28.1
FTA/FGA:	35.4 52	31.9 229	30.3
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	33.0 216	34.5 233	33.7
2P%:	54.1 36	42.8 5	49.7
FT%:	69.3 264	68.0 28	71.7
Block%:	6.3 8	16.7 5	9.0
Steal%:	9.9 251	8.7 231	9.4
Style Components
3PA/FGA:	41.1 105	32.6 34	37.7
A/FGM:	53.8 98	44.2 41	50.8
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:	31.5 170	29.8 231	31.3
2-Pointers:	49.4 226	51.0 173	50.9
Free Throws:	19.0 112	19.2 110	17.9
Personnel
Bench Minutes:	32.0% 149	28.0% 244	30.7%
Experience:	2.03 yrs 145	2.15 yrs 116	1.87
Average Height:	78.1" 42	78.2" 39	77.0"
2-Foul Participation:	2.1% 351	7.7% 307	21.1%

When Connecticut
has the ball​

Category	Connecticut Offense	NMST Defense	D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency	113.9 21	97.7 73	103.1
Avg. Poss Length	17.8 210	17.1 75	17.6
Four Factors
Effective FG%:	49.6 194	45.5 20	50.0
Turnover %:	17.4 110	16.9 271	18.4
Off. Reb. %:	37.9 1	26.2 95	28.1
FTA/FGA:	30.6 162	27.8 105	30.3
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	35.3 79	30.0 22	33.7
2P%:	47.8 249	45.8 33	49.7
FT%:	75.0 66	74.2 298	71.7
Block%:	8.3 118	12.9 32	9.0
Steal%:	9.3 176	6.9 333	9.4
Style Components
3PA/FGA:	34.2 262	42.6 317	37.7
A/FGM:	52.2 143	48.2 110	50.8
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:	29.7 222	34.4 70	31.3
2-Pointers:	51.5 158	47.2 288	50.9
Free Throws:	18.8 121	18.5 148	17.9
Personnel
Bench Minutes:	28.0% 244	32.0% 149	30.7%
Experience:	2.15 yrs 116	2.03 yrs 145	1.87
Average Height:	78.2" 39	78.1" 42	77.0"
2-Foul Participation:	7.7% 307	2.1% 351	21.1%

 

[freescooter]

Overall view. There are no great teams this year. We could see 6,7,8 seeds in the Final 4. This might be the new normal with the portal.
On New Mexico St I would rather play a mid- major any day. Not that they can’t beat you, but generally they don’t play as many good teams so are likely to break.

 

[Hankster]

They've got 2 decent 3pt shooters, 1 guy who shoots volume but not well, 1 guy who shoots pretty poorly we probably don't need to guard, and their center doesn't shoot at all. We can play 2 bigs against them easily.

The boys need to guard everyone. How many games have you seen where a player is shooting 20% from three and suddenly goes off for 30 points. There has always been an opposing player getting his first (fill in the blank) against Uconn. Especially from the bench.

 

[caw]

Can someone tell me who was the best team NMSt played this year? Davidson?

So hard to tell with a team that has only played a handful of games against the top 100 in college basketball.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Based on what I'm seeing, NM State:

• plays at a slow tempo
• turns it over a lot
• defends both 3's and 2's well
• blocks a lot of shots but don't turn you over
• goods offensive rebounders and get to the line
• shoots a decent amount of 3's but at a mediocre clip
• shoots a good percentage inside the arc

So it looks like inside play is a strength, but they haven't dealt with an inside game the likes of ours.

Otherwise, it's a matter of slowing down their volume shooter (Teddy Allen, 19 ppg on 44/33/87 shooting %s and a sub-1 A/T ratio).

What’s their average PPG?