New AAC ESPN Contract Value Poll

[Towney007]

This conference is awful. Objectively so.

If it wasn't - every team in it wouldn't be trying so hard to get out of it.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I'm optimistic about the deal but we'll see.

I'm not sure why a lot of people are predicting a lot of our content will end up on ESPN+. Between ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN News there is a lot of airtime to fill and given the other league networks/Fox getting more involved, it seems like the exposure should be relatively similiar?

I'll say we end up with similar exposure and maybe $6M a year per program. Enough to keep us viable in the near term to serve the networks purpose of watchable content, but still far below what we'd need long term.

 

[Slasher]

Here's an idea: if you don't follow something closely, maybe you should stop arguing about it with folks who do. Better yet, maybe you should follow it closer so that you can come to the same conclusion as the folks who do!

It's pretty valid, we know how good UCF has been the past few years. Cincinnati beat UCLA and Virginia Tech last year. Houston beat Arizona... etc. Not going to go back and find all the p5 wins, but outside of the elite, elite programs the top of the AAC is competitive.

 

[billybud]

Drop that number down to 75% and he's spot on.

Interesting question....I checked the data...2010-18.

....Temple
...13 games vs P5....one win over a team with winning record. Total record 2-11.

....Memphis
...16 games vs P5....one win over team with winning record. Total record 4-16...

...Cincinnati
...18 games vs P5...three wins over teams with winning records. Total record 9-9

Cincinnati comes closest of those three teams listed, IMHO, to approximating a P5 team 2010-18.

 

[Dooley]

Drop that number down to 75% and he's spot on.

99% was probably a bit of an exaggeration. To be honest, I didn't break out my computer algorithm to come up with an exact formula. My point was the top of the AAC can play with the majority of the P5. The P5s behemoths - Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, maybe a handful of others - are on their own plane. The P5 can't compete against those giants.

The real separation starts at around the 4-6th teams in the AAC and the mid/lower half of P5 conferences. We haven't looked like we belonged anywhere near the same field with a pair of geographic ACC rivals BC and Cuse in the past 2 years. We'll likely get crushed by Indiana/Illinois in the coming years too. Occasionally, a lower AAC team can put up a fight against the P5 (ex - Tulsa hung with Texas) but not usually. With a new deal that brings more money and improved exposure, the bottom portion of the AAC should elevate to a far more even level.

Hoops is already improving. The AAC desperately needs a team to make a deep run in March. We seem to have a knack of presenting our best paper tigers to the field come tourney time and they get the ol' bounce very early on. Of course, it would help if we could actually carry a little bit of weight in our own conference but that's not reality at the moment. We'll get there and when we do, so will the AAC.

 

[Dooley]

It's pretty valid, we know how good UCF has been the past few years. Cincinnati beat UCLA and Virginia Tech last year. Houston beat Arizona... etc. Not going to go back and find all the p5 wins, but outside of the elite, elite programs the top of the AAC is competitive.

No question. The majority of the P5 can't play with the truly elite of the P5 either. But our top tier teams usually hang right in there and/or beat P5 teams when presented with an opportunity. NY6 bowl games speak for themselves. AAC's only loss came with a backup QB that couldn't throw the football into an ocean. But he did throw it into a sea of LSU backup DBs. Ha!

 

[Slasher]

Interesting question....I checked the data...2010-18.

....Temple
...13 games vs P5....one win over a team with winning record. Total record 2-11.

....Memphis
...16 games vs P5....one win over team with winning record. Total record 4-16...

...Cincinnati
...18 games vs P5...three wins over teams with winning records. Total record 9-9

Cincinnati comes closest of those three teams listed, IMHO, to approximating a P5 team 2010-18.

Those aren't the top three teams in the conference though....maybe Cincinnati is one of the three. I'd guess they are UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati over any length of time.

 

[billybud]

UCF...2010-18

...20 games played vs P5. Three games won against teams with winning record...Total record..8-12.

UCF has done well in some big games (two of their three wins against above .500 teams)....on which they made national noise...beat 11-2 Baylor..beat 10-4 Auburn

 

[billybud]

Houston's record is the best of those against the P5...

They are 4-0 vs ACC, 1-0 vs Big Ten, 3-2 vs PAC 12, 1-3 vs Big 12, 1-2 vs SEC....

They do look like a P5 team on record...6 wins over teams with winning records, some top teams, of the 17 played.

Beat 11 win Oklahoma...9 win Penn State...10 win FSU

 

[zls44]

AAC's only loss came with a backup QB that couldn't throw the football into an ocean. But he did throw it into a sea of LSU backup DBs.

LSU played their third-string defense.

 

[billybud]

LSU played their third-string defense.

OK...scratch "sea of defensive backs"....the UCF quarterback threw it into a lake of defensive backs

 

[Dooley]

LSU played their third-string defense.

Yes, I know. I also know that the folks who cling to their hatred of the AAC play this card over and over. Fact is, a backup QB having a bad day can't move the ball on any defense...except maybe ours. Okay, definitely against ours. However, any competent FBS level defense beats UCF that afternoon against that kind of QB play.

 

[Dooley]

OK...scratch "sea of defensive backs"....the UCF quarterback threw it into a lake of defensive backs

Compromise: the Great Salt Lake of defensive backs. Defensive backs with definite oceanic traits.

 

[CL82]

Interesting question....I checked the data...2010-18.

....Temple
...13 games vs P5....one win over a team with winning record. Total record 2-11.

....Memphis
...16 games vs P5....one win over team with winning record. Total record 4-16...

...Cincinnati
...18 games vs P5...three wins over teams with winning records. Total record 9-9

Cincinnati comes closest of those three teams listed, IMHO, to approximating a P5 team 2010-18.

Of course he didn't say teams with winning records, he said P5. Does that change the results?

 

[UCDaveD]

The only thing for certain is that regardless of the number, that little toad noescalators is going to snivle and moan while waxing poetic about the Big East.

 

[zls44]

Yes, I know. I also know that the folks who cling to their hatred of the AAC play this card over and over.

Yes, because it is true.

 

[Dooley]

Of course he didn't say teams with winning records, he said P5. Does that change the results?

Well, I am certainly glad you actually read my post and asked. If we can all agree who the better AAC teams are, I've got Houston, UCF, USF, Memphis, Cincinnati and Temple going a combined 6-3 against the P5 and the rest of the conference going 1-9 (only win being ECU over UNC). Of the 3 losses, I'd say Missouri doubling up on Memphis was a terrible loss but the other 2 were fairly close (2 scores). I'd count those as competitive losses, which is the point. Like I said, the bottom half of the AAC has some very serious catching up to do. That includes us. LOTS of non-competitive blowouts by the bottom half. The "best loss" was definitely Tulsa vs Texas 28-21.

Of course, the inevitable retort to that 6-3 record is going to be "yeah, but, the P5 teams they played weren't any good". The fact that the top half of our league only played in 9 games against the P5 is absurd in itself. There is absolutely zero difference between the top half of the AAC and the majority of the P5. Again, the divide takes shape at or slightly before the halfway point of the conference.

 

[Dooley]

Yes, because it is true.

Funny how fast a third string defense becomes a matter of fact but a superstar QB being injured doesn't, huh?

I'm going to assign you some homework. Go poll every football coach ever. Any level. Anywhere. Ask them what the most important position on the field is. Tally your results and then come back here and continue to dismiss UCF playing with its backup QB...who also happened to have an exceptionally bad game. They weren't beating anyone, except us, that afternoon. Sorry. LSU just happened to be the lucky duck on the other sideline that day. UCF wasn't beating anyone in the top half of the AAC that afternoon either.

And how's about the NY6 wins? Florida State played with 6th string waterboys? Auburn probably missed their team flight. Baylor was chin deep in their Art Briles era so they probably had...uh...other things on the forefront of their minds.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[tcf15]

Asked American commissioner Mike Aresco if we are close to an announcement on new conference media deal. “I can’t comment, but you see my face.” He was smiling.

"He was smiling"

 

[Chin Diesel]

Too easy to assume they announce it Saturday and use the Game Day crew in Houston as a day long PR event to promote the conference and it's new deal?

 

[methodology]

I can't see how Aresco or Memphis pres could be happy if it's lower than $10m. If they somehow were able get around $15m that would be incredible.

From may 2018:

The ACC’s average distribution to 14 full-time members of $26.6 million was last among the Power Five — with only 10 schools, the Big 12’s average distribution was $34.3 million, the latter figure from USA Today’s Steve Berkowitz.



Mean per-school shares for the other Power Fives, according to USA Today, were: Southeastern Conference $40.9 million, Big Ten $37 million and Pacific 12 $30.9 million.

 

[CL82]

That’s the sad truth of the thing, whatever we get it’ll be too low to let American schools keep pace with the P5. That said, anything north of $10 million is a clear message that, while we are not P5, we’re not exactly G5 either. I have to believe that if we were below $10 million Aresco would be more reserved.

 

[Guapo]

That’s the sad truth of the thing, whatever we get it’ll be too low to let American schools keep pace with the P5. That said, anything north of $10 million is a clear message that, while we are not P5, we’re not exactly G5 either. I have to believe that if we were below $10 million Aresco would be more reserved.

On one hand I want to be a glass half full kinda guy. On the other, it’ll be pretty hilarious when he announces its 4.75 million after all this buildup.

 

[CL82]

On one hand I want to be a glass half kinda guy. On the other, it’ll be pretty hilarious when he announces its 4.75 million after all this buildup.

It is possible. Very possible.

 

[Drew]

Go to Wolo & Peter in the morning and start at 26:45 in the hour 2 segment from Feb 25. This seems like it should be a really good deal for the AAC based off the enthusiasm in Memphis AD Tom Bowen’s voice:

SPORTS 56 | REAL SPORTS TALK | WHBQ-AM Memphis, TN

Also confirmed they’re “not looking at anyone else” and the deal will be with ESPN

 

[olehead]

And UConn should join the Big East

Here, here!

 

[billybud]

Of course he didn't say teams with winning records, he said P5. Does that change the results?

No...the results are the results...I just sifted data further...P5 wins...and the nature of those wins.

 

[billybud]

A program can have a record...but to understand that record, one must look further than the raw numbers...

2010-2018

eg..Duke is 3-2 against the Big Ten...and 3-0 vs the Big 12...but you need to break it down to tell much about Duke.

 

[Ha Who]

Wasn’t our senior senator smiling at the lawsuit press conference?