NCAA tourny thread | Page 16 | The Boneyard

NCAA tourny thread

auror said:
Saint Louis is probably the worst shooting team in the tournament and VTech plays a zone, so... There's always the backdoor cover.

I don't recommend momentum. It has not been shown to be highly correlated to success.
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I disagree on momentum. If you look historically the teams playing the best heading into the tournament typically do the best.
 
UcannUconn said:
I disagree on momentum. If you look historically the teams playing the best heading into the tournament typically do the best.
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I've read a lot of different studies with regressions indicating last 10 games was not a predictive stat for tournament success.
For example:
"In all three of the first equations Wins in first 10 games was significant, while Wins in the last 10 games was not significant which is interesting considering the last 10 games of the season provide the best example of a team’s current level of performance. "
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https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/handle/1811/48883/EmilyToutkoushian.pdf?sequence=1

The committee used to list it on the selection team sheets, but they removed it, presumably for that reason. If you have something that shows momentum (perhaps an efficiency margin over x games instead of just win/loss), I'd be curious to read it.
 
auror said:
0 5/12 upsets last year, 3 this year. 4th game 1 point win.
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True, but it was dramatic as hell last year. I don't remember which part of the tournament exactly, just that it was awesome.

Buzzer beating down to the wire nail-biters >>> upsets. Especially the ol' 5/12er.
 
UCF is not the matchup Duke wanted in the 2nd round. They present a litany of problems size and experience wise.
 
whaler11 said:
Yeah Duke only opened as 14.5 favorites. Sleepless nights for everyone.
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Obviously Duke is far more talented but if (big if) Tacko stays out of foul trouble, I think forcing duke to shoot the ball is the only way to give them a run. They’re really not lights out shooters. I just don’t see enough fire power for UCF to keep up.
 
blue93 said:
Obviously Duke is far more talented but if (big if) Tacko stays out of foul trouble, I think forcing duke to shoot the ball is the only way to give them a run. They’re really not lights out shooters. I just don’t see enough fire power for UCF to keep up.
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Zion is going to knock Taco into the third row. Hopefully in one piece.
 
blue93 said:
Obviously Duke is far more talented but if (big if) Tacko stays out of foul trouble, I think forcing duke to shoot the ball is the only way to give them a run. They’re really not lights out shooters. I just don’t see enough fire power for UCF to keep up.
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Yes, it’s no secret Duke shoots a low percentage from 3 pt range.

But if one wants to claim Duke is vulnerable against UCF... they can get UCF and TWO TOUCHDOWNS to get paid.
 
whaler11 said:
Yes, it’s no secret Duke shoots a low percentage from 3 pt range.

But if one wants to claim Duke is vulnerable against UCF... they can get UCF and TWO TOUCHDOWNS to get paid.
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I’d be much more tempted to take those points with UCF than I would’ve been with VCU, which I think was his point.
 
blue93 said:
I’d be much more tempted to take those points with UCF than I would’ve been with VCU, which I think was his point.
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Oh his point was Duke had an opinion between playing UCF and VCU?

I think UCF is like a point or two better than VCU but from Duke’s POV there is really no difference.

For example Clemson is better than both of them.
 
Have to think McGee is going to play better in the 2nd half. Wofford has a real shot here.
 

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