NCAA To Announce Preliminary Seedings Monday.

[Plebe]

IF the committee has us a #1 seed and sends us to Albany with UConn there, I think they are saying that they don't see much difference between the 2 teams. The teams are probably 4A and 4B for overall seeding.

That's not necessarily what they're saying. If UConn's not a #1 seed, some #1 seed still has to go to Albany, and it's probably going to be the last of the #1 seeds, which for now is MSU. That's regardless of whether the gap between overall #4 and #5 is minuscule or huge.

 

[DallasBUFan]

Hopefully they can get over the hump this year with that untested schedule.

How is it anymore untested than other no.1 seeds? Oregon is the only one I could see.

 

[DanishBulldog]

That's not necessarily what they're saying. If UConn's not a #1 seed, some #1 seed still has to go to Albany, and it's probably going to be the last of the #1 seeds, which for now is MSU. That's regardless of whether the gap between overall #4 and #5 is minuscule or huge.

They didn't follow the same logic with ND. They didn't have them in Chicago. Does UConn have some guarantee with the NCAA that they will play in Albany?

 

[DeeHusky]

I'm still not understanding why you think Baylor is untested. Only 4 teams have played a more difficult schedule. That would also seem to imply that UConn is not a test.

UConn is the ONLY test! At the time South Carolina was not at the level they’re playing now.

 

[Bear11]

UConn is the ONLY test! At the time South Carolina was not at the level they’re playing now.

It doesn't work that way. A 25 point road win over South Carolina still counts for something. So do road wins over Arizona State and Texas. Whipping Iowa State was nice too. This is not last year's Baylor schedule.

If you think Baylor isn't deserving, lay out the case for another team using those same criteria.

 

[Plebe]

They didn't follow the same logic with ND. They didn't have them in Chicago. Does UConn have some guarantee with the NCAA that they will play in Albany?

That's a totally different situation. They assigned Louisville to Chicago because that meets their definition of "driving distance," and once they did that, they had to send ND elsewhere because they can't put two high seeds from the same conference in the same region. If any other of the #1 seeds had been sent to Chicago, rest assured that ND would have been there as well.

 

[Tenspro2002]

IF the committee has us a #1 seed and sends us to Albany with UConn there, I think they are saying that they don't see much difference between the 2 teams. The teams are probably 4A and 4B for overall seeding.

Having said that... no number 1 seeds want to play UConn in Albany, Notre Dame in Chicago, or Oregon in Portland (if UO drops a couple of games).

While that's true, i.e. it would still be overall #4 vs. overall #5 regardless of whether us or MSU is the #1 or #2 seed, the optics would be very different.

Recall Penn State in 2004 was in the same position as the #1 to our #2 in a local regional, and there was heavy complaining and eyerolling about UConn getting favorable treatment. This would be the same situation with MSU.

 

[Jmsdawg]

If ND runs the table from here on out and beats Louisville again in the process, it'll be a close call. They'll have a ton more quality wins than MSU, including 3 wins that will be better than MSU's best win. But they also have those two upset losses. The committee could go either way on that one, but I suspect they'd give the edge to ND.

If the top 6 are as you describe, ND would be the team sent to Chicago and Louisville to Albany. They assign sites in the order of the S-curve. I suspect MSU would be sent to Chicago in that instance so that UConn could take the drive to Albany. This would be the geography-based decision and, based on their preview last night, they are very willing to favor geography even if it's at the expense of competitive balance.

Thanks for your reply. Must admit I do not understand the seeding location decisions. I had always thought the number 1 overall seed would be in the same region as the number 8 seed, number 2 with number 7, 3 with 6, and 4 with 5. I thought only the top 4 seeds were based on geography.

 

[Carnac]

Baylor, SC, ND and MD ALL IN ONE REGION?!?!?!?!

That's ridiculous. The first thing I thought when I saw that regional was 3 of those teams will be highly disappointed since only 1 can come out of that regional. If you thought the New Orleans Saints cried foul over that non call in the NFC championship game against the Rams, let the selection committee put these 4 teams in the same regional and see what happens. These four will knock each other off. I'm sure other would-be opponents of these programs would love not having to play them.

Lot's of wailing, gnashing of teeth, protests and letter writing. There'd be a lot of po'ed fans and coaches from those programs. Charlie Creme said that the brackets as shown were not balanced. This, and the Portland regional are glaring illustrations of its imbalance. One poster wrote: you might as well pencil the Oregon Ducks in the final four now. That regional is extremely weak.

 

[Plebe]

Thanks for your reply. Must admit I do not understand the seeding location decisions. I had always thought the number 1 overall seed would be in the same region as the number 8 seed, number 2 with number 7, 3 with 6, and 4 with 5. I thought only the top 4 seeds were based on geography.

Yeah it’s not that straightforward. The committee can and does deviate from the true S-curve for geographical reasons and also to separate top 16 teams from the same conference. If Louisville ends up #3 overall and ND #6, they’ll have to deviate to send ND to a different region.

There seems to be some surprises and controversy every year. The guidelines are vague enough that the committee has a lot of discretion. There was the infamous 2016 sending of South Carolina to the Sioux Falls regional so that Notre Dame could travel “driving distance” to Lexington. As you can imagine the SC fans were less than thrilled.

 

[Bigboote]

The one that really has me shaking my head is NC State as a two seed (eighth overall). They're 12th in AP, 12th in RPI, and 15th in Massey. How does the NCAA have them 8th?

 

[triaddukefan]

Yeah it’s not that straightforward. The committee can and does deviate from the true S-curve for geographical reasons and also to separate top 16 teams from the same conference. If Louisville ends up #3 overall and ND #6, they’ll have to deviate to send ND to a different region.

There seems to be some surprises and controversy every year. The guidelines are vague enough that the committee has a lot of discretion. There was the infamous 2016 sending of South Carolina to the Sioux Falls regional so that Notre Dame could travel “driving distance” to Lexington. As you can imagine the SC fans were less than thrilled.

And neither team made it to Indianapolis

 

[triaddukefan]

The one that really has me shaking my head is NC State as a two seed (eighth overall). They're 12th in AP, 12th in RPI, and 15th in Massey. How does the NCAA have them 8th?

Triangle Bias

 

[Plebe]

And neither team made it to Indianapolis

Ha, I'm convinced that SC fell victim that year to bad karma after their Twitter storm of "Where the hell is Sioux Falls?!" type of kvetching. The good Lord don't like an ungracious guest!

As for Notre Dame, well, they lost because they just plain suck
... except for the years when they lose 4 players to ACL injuries

 

[SimpleDawg]

I think Oregon has a cause for concern.

Stanford is, in my opinion, the easiest #2 seed to play, and playing them avoids having to face the Big 6 (UConn, Oregon, Mississippi State, Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame) for a final four spot. Since Oregon is in the same conference as Stanford, we know they won't get Stanford in their Portland regional. That leaves Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, and NcState as possible #2 seeds in Portland. This is all contingent upon Stanford being able to hold on as a #2.

I know people are gonna say "NcState is the easiest #2 seed, not Stanford." That's true, but they have Louisville and Notre Dame coming up. They could be awaiting a slaughterhouse and drop out of the #2 line. Or if they manage to win just one of those games, they may be able to earn a #2 seed. But that in turn will shake up the ACC, and those seeds will be rearranged once again. So odds of this reveal staying the way it is at the top is unlikely.

Just food for thought. We know that if Mississippi State, Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn, and Louisville gets a #1 seed, they may catch a break by getting Stanford as #2. But Oregon doesn't have that luxury, so they have one less of a side of the dice.


...

 

[LoTrader]

I think Oregon has a cause for concern.

Stanford is, in my opinion, the easiest #2 seed to play, and playing them avoids having to face the Big 6 (UConn, Oregon, Mississippi State, Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame) for a final four spot. Since Oregon is in the same conference as Stanford, we know they won't get Stanford in their Portland regional. That leaves Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, and NcState as possible #2 seeds in Portland. This is all contingent upon Stanford being able to hold on as a #2.

I know people are gonna say "NcState is the easiest #2 seed, not Stanford." That's true, but they have Louisville and Notre Dame coming up. They could be awaiting a slaughterhouse and drop out of the #2 line. Or if they manage to win just one of those games, they may be able to earn a #2 seed. But that in turn will shake up the ACC, and those seeds will be rearranged once again. So odds of this reveal staying the way it is at the top is unlikely.

Just food for thought. We know that if Mississippi State, Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn, and Louisville gets a #1 seed, they may catch a break by getting Stanford as #2. But Oregon doesn't have that luxury, so they have one less of a side of the dice.


...

This is pretty typical of what most think of the PAC-12. Usually the view is Stanford is legit, and every other PAC-12 Team would be a gift to have them in your bracket. Now, because Stanford loses big to Oregon, Stanford is not legit? For those with short term memory issues, the PAC-12 has performed admirably the past 4 years in the NCAA Tournament. I see no reason why the PAC-12 won't perform very well in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. PAC-12 Teams just beat up on each other, and come out of the PAC-12 "season-ed", and ready to rumble.

 

[SimpleDawg]

This is pretty typical of what most think of the PAC-12. Usually the view is Stanford is legit, and every other PAC-12 Team would be a gift to have them in your bracket. Now, because Stanford loses big to Oregon, Stanford is not legit? For those with short term memory issues, the PAC-12 has performed admirably the past 4 years in the NCAA Tournament. I see no reason why the PAC-12 won't perform very well in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. PAC-12 Teams just beat up on each other, and come out of the PAC-12 "season-ed", and ready to rumble.

I'm not dissing the Pac-12. If you ask me personally, Oregon State poses the biggest challenge to Oregon, and they have 2 chances to beat them. I'm a fan of the way they play, and Pivec is one of my 5 favorite players in this country after McCowan, Howard, Danberry, and someone else. But that....comes from somewhere.

But if Mississippi State were a #1 seed, if it was up to me.... I'd prefer getting Stanford as #2 in our regional as opposed to Baylor, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, or Oregon. Not to say Stanford isn't any threat whatsoever, but I think those other 5 are harder to play.

....

 

[bbballfan23]

There’s a lot of movement still to be had. Miss St, Oregon, Louisville, ND all capabale of dropping 1 or 2 more games. Baylor & UConn are the only two pretty safe with running the table until tournament time.

 

[FridaFriend]

I think that NC State losses 4 of their last five, so they drop from consideration. If Marquette wins out, they probably deserve a #2 seed, having only lost to Mississippi State, Notre Dame, and Miami. Of course, they don't have really good wins, except two against Depaul I won't give a #2 seed to Maryland on principle, so the other #2 seed should probably go to Oregon State or Stanford. The Oregon rout of Stanford seems to have caused people to regard Oregon as the best team in the country and to have Stanford to lose respect, but that rout was due to Oregon shooting twice their average percentage from 3 point range and to Stanford shooting well below average. Tara won't let that happen again.

Personally, I think the selection committee could solve the balance problem by sending Notre Dame to Portland.

 

[SimpleDawg]

The Oregon rout of Stanford seems to have caused people to regard Oregon as the best team in the country and to have Stanford to lose respect, but that rout was due to Oregon shooting twice their average percentage from 3 point range and to Stanford shooting well below average. Tara won't let that happen again.

I don't think Stanford is as bad as the team that put up that dud last Sunday. They seemed to do all the things wrong. Mishandled the ball, turnovers, missed bunnies.... so a lot of fundamental errors. And they seemed cold shooting putting up only 48 points. They just played much worse than what it looked like, which was an Oregon dominating rout.

Still, I think at this point... they're fighting between a #2 and #3 seed and they have no shot at a #1 realistically speaking. They could still do other teams a favor and shake up the seeding arrangements with the games they have left though.

....

 

[jonson]

I think Oregon has a cause for concern.

Stanford is, in my opinion, the easiest #2 seed to play, and playing them avoids having to face the Big 6 (UConn, Oregon, Mississippi State, Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame) for a final four spot. Since Oregon is in the same conference as Stanford, we know they won't get Stanford in their Portland regional. That leaves Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, and NcState as possible #2 seeds in Portland. This is all contingent upon Stanford being able to hold on as a #2.

I know people are gonna say "NcState is the easiest #2 seed, not Stanford." That's true, but they have Louisville and Notre Dame coming up. They could be awaiting a slaughterhouse and drop out of the #2 line. Or if they manage to win just one of those games, they may be able to earn a #2 seed. But that in turn will shake up the ACC, and those seeds will be rearranged once again. So odds of this reveal staying the way it is at the top is unlikely.

Just food for thought. We know that if Mississippi State, Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn, and Louisville gets a #1 seed, they may catch a break by getting Stanford as #2. But Oregon doesn't have that luxury, so they have one less of a side of the dice.


...

A couple of things. First, if there are, as everyone assumes, 6 contenders for the top 4 seeds, then what really matters is being one of the top 2 number 1 seeds. That will mean, as I (and olddude and likely others) have posted earlier, that those teams will avoid having to face another of the other 6 contenders until the Final Four (assuming, of course, that they get that far). That is a major plus imo, since I think it is very difficult to predict who will win any of the potential matchups between those 6 teams. And second, I don't think it's a good idea to say that Stanford is an easy out just because they got clobbered on Sunday. They have already beaten Baylor, after all, and they have a hall of fame coach. Other than one of the 6 listed above, they are one of the teams--maybe the team--I'd least like to face in an Elite Eight game.

 

[SimpleDawg]

First, if there are, as everyone assumes, 6 contenders for the top 4 seeds, then what really matters is being one of the top 2 number 1 seeds. That will mean, as I (and olddude and likely others) have posted earlier, that those teams will avoid having to face another of the other 6 contenders until the Final Four (assuming, of course, that they get that far).

But does it work that way? Baylor is the #1 overall team who should be getting the #8 overall team NCState, but instead they get the #6 Notre Dame. Oregon is currently #3 overall team who should be getting the #6 overall Notre Dame, but instead gets #8 NCState. This is all based on the current reveal. I don't think being the #1 and #2 overall teams prevents you from having to face those elite 6 teams. You can safely assume Oregon won't be in UConn's bracket unless Oregon drops to #2 in Portland and UConn gets moved all the way over to Portland as a #1, but every other scenario is in the cards. But even that, if UConn is a #1, why would they get moved from Albany? So that scenario is out too.

And second, I don't think it's a good idea to say that Stanford is an easy out just because they got clobbered on Sunday. They have already beaten Baylor, after all, and they have a hall of fame coach. Other than one of the 6 listed above, they are one of the teams--maybe the team--I'd least like to face in an Elite Eight game.

Well, that's after those big 6 teams, like you said.... which probably are all at least one level more dangerous. And I think Marquette is more dangerous than Stanford. I'd rather not play them again given how well they run around and away from McCowan, disenabling her from having a defensive impact.


...

 

[jonson]

[Well, that's after those big 6 teams, like you said.... which probably are all at least one level more dangerous. And I think Marquette is more dangerous than Stanford. I'd rather not play them again given how well they run around and away from McCowan, disenabling her from having a defensive impact.


...[/QUOTE]

It's how things are supposed to go, I believe, but you're right: in this reveal other considerations--and especially location, apparently--seem to have been more important. I hope that will get resolved by the end of the season.

 

[Plebe]

One thing I've learned over the years is that Tara's team is to be underestimated at one's own peril.

I'm reminded of the 2015-16 season, when Stanford had a relatively lackluster regular season in which they lost to Santa Clara at home and finished 4th in the Pac-12 standings with a 14-4 record. Those four losses included a sweep by Arizona State (featuring an abysmal 49-31 performance on the road) and a 56-36 loss to UCLA. They then lost to Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals by a then-unheralded Washington team (which would go on to the Final Four, but that's another subplot entirely).

They were given a #4 seed and had to play a very strong ND team in the Sweet 16. ND had only lost to UConn that season and had rolled through their entire ACC schedule with minimal drama. No one gave Stanford a chance in that game, especially in view of their frequent struggles on offense in road games that season. One ND fan I know (not on this board) cockily predicted a 30-point win for his team. But lo and behold, Tara and her squad exploded for 90 points and led for almost the entire game.

Underestimate Stanford at your own peril.

 

[jonson]

I think that NC State losses 4 of their last five, so they drop from consideration. If Marquette wins out, they probably deserve a #2 seed, having only lost to Mississippi State, Notre Dame, and Miami. Of course, they don't have really good wins, except two against Depaul I won't give a #2 seed to Maryland on principle, so the other #2 seed should probably go to Oregon State or Stanford. The Oregon rout of Stanford seems to have caused people to regard Oregon as the best team in the country and to have Stanford to lose respect, but that rout was due to Oregon shooting twice their average percentage from 3 point range and to Stanford shooting well below average. Tara won't let that happen again.

Personally, I think the selection committee could solve the balance problem by sending Notre Dame to Portland.

One correction: if Oregon had shot its normal percentage from three, it would have cost them 10 pts. (7 -16 vs. 12-16). So the margin would have been 30 instead of 40. But, although I believe Oregon is the better team, the game was an outlier of sorts and no one should underestimate Stanford and, especially, Tara. I also agree that moving Notre Dame to Portland would have made the reveal more balanced. But I hope by the final seeding that won't be a possibility.