NCAA To Announce Preliminary Seedings Monday. | The Boneyard

NCAA To Announce Preliminary Seedings Monday.

Pending this weekends games, my guess:
  1. Lou
  2. Bay
  3. Ore
  4. UConn
  5. ND
  6. Miss St
  7. Stan
8-13: A jumble of Marq, Md, Ore St, Gonz, SoCar, NC St
14-16: A jumble of Mia, Fla St, Syr, Iowa, Tex, Az St
 
vowelguy said:
Pending this weekends games, my guess:
  1. Lou
  2. Bay
  3. Ore
  4. UConn
  5. ND
  6. Miss St
  7. Stan
8-13: A jumble of Marq, Md, Ore St, Gonz, SoCar, NC St
14-16: A jumble of Mia, Fla St, Syr, Iowa, Tex, Az St
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I think Iowa State is also very much in the mix for 14-16.

I might the committee might put Miss St at #5 ahead of ND. Will be close though.
 
Plebe said:
I think Iowa State is also very much in the mix for 14-16.

I might the committee might put Miss St at #5 ahead of ND. Will be close though.
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I had Iowa St there then dropped them. Their best wins are over Miami & Drake at home. Best road win is Kan St, which isn't much.
Add to that losses to So Dakota, Iowa, W Va, Tex, Bay.
 
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vowelguy said:
I had Iowa St there then dropped them. Their best wins are over Miami & Drake at home. Best road win is Kan St, which isn't much.
Add to that losses to So Dakota, Iowa, W Va, Tex, Bay.
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You have a point, but if we drop Iowa State I think we also have to drop Texas. Pretty much their entire resume hangs on that one road win at ISU.
 
Plebe said:
You have a point, but if we drop Iowa State I think we also have to drop Texas. Pretty much their entire resume hangs on that one road win at ISU.
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Just because they're not 16, doesn't mean they're not top 20/24.
And a top 20/24 win *on the road* is still a good win for TX.
 
Does Oregon's utter demolition at Stanford -- Baylor's lone loss -- change the top 3 dynamics?

Probably not. Yet.
But if Ducks win out I think they move to overall #2 or #1 if Lou stumbles.

Btw, this solidifies Ionescu as POY.
 
vowelguy said:
Does Oregon's utter demolition at Stanford -- Baylor's lone loss -- change the top 3 dynamics?

Btw, this solidifies Ionescu as POY.
Expand ...
Agree - done deal.

Think this is her last year in college
 
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vowelguy said:
Does Oregon's utter demolition at Stanford -- Baylor's lone loss -- change the top 3 dynamics?

Probably not. Yet.
Expand ...
I really think it might. Oregon now has wins over Miss St and Stanford—a stronger pair of wins than any other team in the country. Oregon also has more top 50 wins (11) than any other top team. The one knock on Oregon would be that their loss to Michigan State is worse than Baylor's or Louisville's respective losses.
 
I can't remember a time when so little separates so many teams in the top 16.

The margins in spots 1-3 are razor-thin. Here's how I have my top 3:
1. Oregon
2. Louisville
3. Baylor
I believe Oregon's road win at Stanford pushes them from #3 to #1, just ahead of Louisville and Baylor. Oregon is the only team with two wins over the "Big 7", and the only team with 11 top-50 wins.

There's very little separating spots 4-6 as well. Here's how I have them:
4. UConn
5. Miss State
6. Notre Dame
UConn edges just barely ahead of MSU because the road win at ND is significantly better than MSU's best win (at home vs. Marquette). ND has a whopping 10 top-50 wins (compared to 4 for both UConn and MSU), but the loss at Miami drops them just behind.

And then Stanford is a clear #7. Their win over Baylor gives them the edge over teeming masses behind them.
 
MilfordHusky said:
Is your team viable for the WNIT?
Expand ...

After losses to BC and UVa, it's not looking good.
BDs are 11-12 with remaining games against VT, ND, WF, Clem, UNC.

With a 3-2 finish plus 1-1 in ACCT they probably get a bid to WNIT or WBI. But that will not be easy.
 
I'm basically throwing my hands up on seeds 8-16. So very difficult to identify any separation between their resumes. Here's what I'm going with.

8. Maryland (I think their road wins at SC and Rutgers give them the slightest edge among this group)
9. Marquette
10. Oregon St
11. South Carolina
12. Gonzaga
13. Syracuse
14. Miami
15. Iowa
16. Florida St

Just missed: Iowa St, NC State, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Arizona St
 
j66kicker said:
Agree - done deal.

Think this is her last year in college
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I haven't heard anything from our NW colleagues on it but given her age and what her opportunities might be, I agree. I did hear that Jackie Young might also leave which really has me surprised. Has anyone heard of that scenario? That means all 5 ND starters are gone, ouch.
 
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vowelguy said:
After losses to BC and UVa, it's not looking good.
BDs are 11-12 with remaining games against VT, ND, WF, Clem, UNC.

With a 3-2 finish plus 1-1 in ACCT they probably get a bid to WNIT or WBI. But that will not be easy.
Expand ...
I want to be more positive for our good colleague Triad- I think they can go 4-1 with the only blemish being ND. VT, Clemson and NCheat are at home and WF is outright pathetic. If they can go 1-1 in ACC Tournament, they finish 16-14 which may get them into the WNIT, especially if Tenn declines their bid..:rolleyes:
 
DefenseBB said:
I haven't heard anything from our NW colleagues on it but given her age and what her opportunities might be, I agree. I did hear that Jackie Young might also leave which really has me surprised. Has anyone heard of that scenario? That means all 5 ND starters are gone, ouch.
Expand ...

I don't think anyone knows except, perhaps, Sabrina, and most here think she has yet to decide. She didn't tell anyone about committing to Oregon until she showed up on campus (that's the lore, anyway), so she's not one to say much or give any clear signs beforehand. The conventional wisdom is that the decision will depend, at least in part, on how the team does in this year's tournament. If Oregon happens to win, then most think she'll be gone. If not, then the view is that she'll likely return for another try given how competitive she is. It's also been speculated that the fact that the WNBA contract is up for renewal beginning in 2020 will be a factor. In any case, I don't think anything has, or will be, decided until after the season ends.
 
DefenseBB said:
I want to be more positive for our good colleague Triad- I think they can go 4-1 with the only blemish being ND. VT, Clemson and NCheat are at home and WF is outright pathetic. If they can go 1-1 in ACC Tournament, they finish 16-14 which may get them into the WNIT, especially if Tenn declines their bid..:rolleyes:
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I think there's room enough for both of them. How bout this: 1st round WNIT, Tennessee @ Duke?
 
jonson said:
She didn't tell anyone about committing to Oregon until she showed up on campus (that's the lore, anyway), so she's not one to say much or give any clear signs beforehand.
Expand ...

At least she has a hard deadline this time. Based on her college recruiting decision timeline, she'd probably wait until an hour before the draft to declare if she could. :p

I'm very curious to see how the top six shakes out. I'd go:

1. Oregon
2. Baylor
3. Louisville
4. UConn
5. Notre Dame
6. Mississippi State

Where ND ends up in the 4-6 range will be an interesting test of how much RPI and SOS matters vs. number of losses. I have UConn ahead of ND because of the head-to-head, but ND still has the #1 RPI and way more top-50 wins than either UConn or Miss. St.

I think ND pretty much controls its own destiny. If they win out, including winning the ACC tournament, I think they will get a #1. My only practical interest in the seeding reveal is the potential of twitter meltdowns if ND is higher than 6.
 
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DefenseBB said:
I want to be more positive for our good colleague Triad- I think they can go 4-1 with the only blemish being ND. VT, Clemson and NCheat are at home and WF is outright pathetic. If they can go 1-1 in ACC Tournament, they finish 16-14 which may get them into the WNIT, especially if Tenn declines their bid..:rolleyes:
Expand ...

Almost all P5 schools with winning records make the WNIT I believe.
 
vowelguy said:
Almost all P5 schools with winning records make the WNIT I believe.
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I wanted to get yours (and anyone else’s) perspective on furthering qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament. I want to see more “at large bids” go to the very good mid-major teams like Buffalo, CMU who don’t win their automatic bid vs. a middling P5 school like a West Virginia or a Tennessee. I think it adds excitement so one aspect I wish the committee would consider is only teams with a .500 or better CONFERENCE RECORD, can get a bid. I mean if you can’t win half your conference games, why should you get a bid? In all our pro sportsman you have to win your division. This also starts to distribute the wealth. Thoughts?
 
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Total agreement on the 50% rule - actually, I'd make it a 51% rule. For me, it's not about sharing the wealth, it's about 1) making the regular season important and 2) defending the meaning of the term "national champion".
 
Orangutan said:
At least she has a hard deadline this time. Based on her college recruiting decision timeline, she'd probably wait until an hour before the draft to declare if she could. :p

I'm very curious to see how the top six shakes out. I'd go:

1. Oregon
2. Baylor
3. Louisville
4. UConn
5. Notre Dame
6. Mississippi State

Where ND ends up in the 4-6 range will be an interesting test of how much RPI and SOS matters vs. number of losses. I have UConn ahead of ND because of the head-to-head, but ND still has the #1 RPI and way more top-50 wins than either UConn or Miss. St.

I think ND pretty much controls its own destiny. If they win out, including winning the ACC tournament, they will get a #1. My only practical interest in the seeding reveal is the potential of twitter meltdowns if ND is higher than 6.
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I think the most important aspect of the final rankings will be which teams of the 6 listed here (assuming the list doesn't change) will be one of the top 2 #1 seeds and so avoid playing any of the other 5 before the Final 4. That would be a major plus imo, since I, at least, would have a difficult time predicting who would win any given matchup among them. Geography also matters, of course, so as an Oregon fan I'd love to see them in Portland matched against anyone other than Baylor or Louisville or UCONN or Notre Dame or Mississippi State.
 
Creme's bracketology article today - All eyes on NCAA selection committee as Monday's top 16 reveal nears

"On one hand, having the Irish play in Chicago would be ideal for atmosphere and attendance. On the other hand, then pairing the Irish with the Lady Bears creates a competitive imbalance among the top two seed lines. The entirety of the bracket could still be reasonably balanced. But having the No. 1 and No. 6 teams potentially meeting in the regional final would be unfair to both teams, especially when the domino effect would likely have the No. 8 overall team -- be it Marquette or Maryland or NC State -- likely playing in the same region as a lower-rated No. 1 seed, probably Oregon in Portland."

To me, Baylor, Louisville, and Oregon are basically equal and I'd actually argue for Oregon as overall number 1 based on having the most group 1 wins, including 3 top-10 RPI wins and an absolute thrashing of Stanford on the road.

At the very least, I don't see a huge difference between Baylor and Oregon. Whereas Notre Dame might make a pretty big difference to the attendance in Chicago.
 
Orangutan said:
To me, Baylor, Louisville, and Oregon are basically equal and I'd actually argue for Oregon as overall number 1 based on having the most group 1 wins, including 3 top-10 RPI wins and an absolute thrashing of Stanford on the road.

At the very least, I don't see a huge difference between Baylor and Oregon. Whereas Notre Dame might make a pretty big difference to the attendance in Chicago.
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I agree but I would add that Louisville’s resume is also virtually indistinguishable from Baylor’s by the metrics. The edge could go to Baylor because their SOS is slightly higher or because more of their top 50 wins have been on the road. Or it could go to Louisville if the committee looks to Quadrant 2 wins as the tiebreaker.
 
Plebe said:
I think there's room enough for both of them. How bout this: 1st round WNIT, Tennessee @ Duke?
Expand ...

ut book 1.jpg
 
Plebe said:
I can't remember a time when so little separates so many teams in the top 16.

The margins in spots 1-3 are razor-thin. Here's how I have my top 3:
1. Oregon
2. Louisville
3. Baylor
I believe Oregon's road win at Stanford pushes them from #3 to #1, just ahead of Louisville and Baylor. Oregon is the only team with two wins over the "Big 7", and the only team with 11 top-50 wins.

There's very little separating spots 4-6 as well. Here's how I have them:
4. UConn
5. Miss State
6. Notre Dame
UConn edges just barely ahead of MSU because the road win at ND is significantly better than MSU's best win (at home vs. Marquette). ND has a whopping 10 top-50 wins (compared to 4 for both UConn and MSU), but the loss at Miami drops them just behind.

And then Stanford is a clear #7. Their win over Baylor gives them the edge over teeming masses behind them.
Expand ...

I might quibble about Louisville vs Baylor at #2, but pretty much agree with you completely.

The two regional final games that could happen between #3-#6 teams could be epic.
 
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