NCAA To Announce Preliminary Seedings Monday.

[Old Jim]

Personally, I think the selection committee could solve the balance problem by sending Notre Dame to Portland.

This is the move that should have been made. If you agree with the committee's top 16 order (which I don't i.e. NC State a #2), the committee followed the S-curve except for two switches ND and NC State, and Miami and So Car. However Miami and So Car had to be switched because Miss St can't play So Car until the Elite Eight. No reason ND isn't in Portland.

 

[UCBaller2012]

I haven’t looked into the numbers much, but does Louisville have a better case than Baylor as the overall number 1? There loss is “better” than Baylor’s.

 

[mbr33ct]

Question: Charlie Creme made a comment last night two of the four regionals revealed by the NCAA committee were unbalanced. My question, is Charlie basing this on the current AP and Coaches poll rankings? If so, I'm going to give it a shot to figure this out.

Based on the revealed regionals (attached image) and the AP Top 25 (for the most part except #4, #5, #15 and #16) without doubt the two unbalanced Regionals are Greensboro (get's shafted) and Portland (EZ-PASS)
#1 Baylor (overall #1)
#2 Louisville
#3 Oregon
#4 Miss St (AP currently #5)
-------------
#5 UConn (AP currently #4)
#6 ND
#7 Maryland
#8 Marquette
-------------
#9 Oregon St
#10 Stanford
#11 South Carolina
#12 NC State
-------------
#13 Gonzaga
#14 Iowa
#15 Miami (FL) ?
#16 Iowas ST ?

Two teams revealed that do not appear in top 16 in AP Top 25 are Miami (FL) and Iowa St. Flip side two teams in the AP Top 25 that were excluded are #15 Texas and #16 Syracuse. So, what gives how did Charlie make the case for this "unbalanced" two regionals?

I understand in achieving the "magical 34 total" for all four regions to "balance". Below are the perfect seedings for each regional to achieve the 34 totals.
#1, #8, #9, #16 = 34
#2, #7, #10, #15 = 34
#3, #6, #11, #14 = 34
#4, #5, #12, #13 = 34

If I'm guessing correctly, these are what the reveal indicates. (feed back appreciated)
Greensboro: #1, #6, #7, #11 = 25
Chicago: #2, #10, #8, #16 = 36
Portland: #3, #12, #14, #13 = 42
Albany: #4, #5, #9, #15 = 33

 

[DefenseBB]

The one that really has me shaking my head is NC State as a two seed (eighth overall). They're 12th in AP, 12th in RPI, and 15th in Massey. How does the NCAA have them 8th?

Do not fear, NC State will have a few more losses and will not be a 2 seed. Too many injuries and timing of when they actually played the toughest part of the ACC schedule.

The other consideration is this is the 1st of the “reveals” and it is doing exactly as the NCAA and ESPN intended “getting buzz and dialogue” about the tournament. More critical games are to be played with the conference tournaments coming up that will cause this to change.

 

[LoTrader]

I'm not dissing the Pac-12. If you ask me personally, Oregon State poses the biggest challenge to Oregon, and they have 2 chances to beat them. I'm a fan of the way they play, and Pivec is one of my 5 favorite players in this country after McCowan, Howard, Danberry, and someone else. But that....comes from somewhere.

But if Mississippi State were a #1 seed, if it was up to me.... I'd prefer getting Stanford as #2 in our regional as opposed to Baylor, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, or Oregon. Not to say Stanford isn't any threat whatsoever, but I think those other 5 are harder to play.

....

I took it to mean that Stanford would be an easier #2 than would Marquette and NC State....no matter how hard I try to believe that notion, it doesn't compute. Marquette, given their maturity, and how long these kids have played together, will be a tough out. But Marquette doesn't have the physical height and size, which to date, they have overcome with their quickness and teamwork. I just think it will catch up to them in the NCAA Tournament.

 

[Plebe]

Question: Charlie Creme made a comment last night two of the four regionals revealed by the NCAA committee were unbalanced. My question, is Charlie basing this on the current AP and Coaches poll rankings?

No. Based on the committee's seeding of teams 1-16. See post from page 2 of this thread.

 

[LETTERL]

Do not fear, NC State will have a few more losses and will not be a 2 seed. Too many injuries and timing of when they actually played the toughest part of the ACC schedule.

And another Wolfpack Woman is done for the season; junior forward Erika Cassell's season is over after a knee injury during the Florida State game last week. At this rate, NC State will be fortunate to even be able to field a team by the end of the year!

 

[jaydee602]

Does anyone know who comprises the selection committee or who is the head of the committee? Whenever there are curious seedings, we should wonder if there is a bias in the decision making.

 

[DefenseBB]

And another Wolfpack Woman is done for the season; junior forward Erika Cassell's season is over after a knee injury during the Florida State game last week. At this rate, NC State will be fortunate to even be able to field a team by the end of the year!

I am so sorry to hear that! I want you to know that I spent last night and today in Fort Mill, SC and then a few hours at the Charlotte Airport where the only merchandise was UNCheat. I ask the manager (not the clerk) what gives? Why no NC State or South Carolina garb? I immediately got a “Holly”... I don’t know reply.

Sad and disappointing. I had your back my fine Wolfpack colleague!

 

[IrishTiger]

I think Oregon has a cause for concern.

Stanford is, in my opinion, the easiest #2 seed to play, and playing them avoids having to face the Big 6 (UConn, Oregon, Mississippi State, Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame) for a final four spot. Since Oregon is in the same conference as Stanford, we know they won't get Stanford in their Portland regional. That leaves Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, and NcState as possible #2 seeds in Portland. This is all contingent upon Stanford being able to hold on as a #2.

I know people are gonna say "NcState is the easiest #2 seed, not Stanford." That's true, but they have Louisville and Notre Dame coming up. They could be awaiting a slaughterhouse and drop out of the #2 line. Or if they manage to win just one of those games, they may be able to earn a #2 seed. But that in turn will shake up the ACC, and those seeds will be rearranged once again. So odds of this reveal staying the way it is at the top is unlikely.

Just food for thought. We know that if Mississippi State, Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn, and Louisville gets a #1 seed, they may catch a break by getting Stanford as #2. But Oregon doesn't have that luxury, so they have one less of a side of the dice.


...

Y’all may wanna play Stanford. As a ND fan I would like to avoid Stanford. They have been a thorn in NDs side the last couple times they’ve played.

 

[SimpleDawg]

I took it to mean that Stanford would be an easier #2 than would Marquette and NC State....no matter how hard I try to believe that notion, it doesn't compute. Marquette, given their maturity, and how long these kids have played together, will be a tough out. But Marquette doesn't have the physical height and size, which to date, they have overcome with their quickness and teamwork. I just think it will catch up to them in the NCAA Tournament.

Agree to disagree. Marquette is smart enough to know they don't have the advantage in height, but they compensate by exploiting you with their strengths. They can play around your "advantages." And they can make you play Marquette ball. I haven't seen Mississippi State being forced to play anyone else's game this year but against them, so for reference........ the Mississippi State/Marquette game. Keep in mind this comes from a Mississippi State fan's perspective, so if you were to ask Bulldog Nation, I'm sure the majority of us would choose to play Stanford. Reason being the debacle against Marquette earlier in the year. And because the style of play of Stanford's to my eyes is not so tough for us, and I think we'll score 85 on them at will. I'd think Notre Dame may wanna avoid Stanford. Just like South Carolina better pray they don't get Albany because they shrivel up and prune against UConn. By that notion, the team I see as the absolute nightmare for Marquette is Louisville because of how physical they play, I doubt Marquette will get anything easy on them or get anything past them.

....

 

[VA Huskie]

And another Wolfpack Woman is done for the season; junior forward Erika Cassell's season is over after a knee injury during the Florida State game last week. At this rate, NC State will be fortunate to even be able to field a team by the end of the year!

They’ve done an amazing job of playing well through a bunch of season ending injuries. Very sad.

 

[Jmsdawg]

But does it work that way? Baylor is the #1 overall team who should be getting the #8 overall team NCState, but instead they get the #6 Notre Dame. Oregon is currently #3 overall team who should be getting the #6 overall Notre Dame, but instead gets #8 NCState. This is all based on the current reveal. I don't think being the #1 and #2 overall teams prevents you from having to face those elite 6 teams. You can safely assume Oregon won't be in UConn's bracket unless Oregon drops to #2 in Portland and UConn gets moved all the way over to Portland as a #1, but every other scenario is in the cards. But even that, if UConn is a #1, why would they get moved from Albany? So that scenario is out too.



Well, that's after those big 6 teams, like you said.... which probably are all at least one level more dangerous. And I think Marquette is more dangerous than Stanford. I'd rather not play them again given how well they run around and away from McCowan, disenabling her from having a defensive impact.


...

I have watched Marquette 4 times this year, MSST, DePaul, ND, and Georgetown. They were not hitting from 3 point land against ND or Georgetown and they did not looked like top ten team. They shot well against DePaul from outside and were unbelievable against MSST from outside. Marquette is dangerous but based on the game I saw Stanford play against Baylor (a team much like MSST) I think I would rather play Marquette.

 

[Plebe]

Does anyone know who comprises the selection committee or who is the head of the committee? Whenever there are curious seedings, we should wonder if there is a bias in the decision making.

Women's Basketball Selections 101 - Committee

 

[Jmsdawg]

Women's Basketball Selections 101 - Committee

Plebe is becoming my go to poster. So much knowledge about WBB, thanks for all you do you make the BY the place I go to for WBB info. Again, THANKS!

 

[Plebe]

Plebe is becoming my go to poster. So much knowledge about WBB, thanks for all you do you make the BY the place I go to for WBB info. Again, THANKS!

 

[IrishTiger]

Agree to disagree. Marquette is smart enough to know they don't have the advantage in height, but they compensate by exploiting you with their strengths. They can play around your "advantages." And they can make you play Marquette ball. I haven't seen Mississippi State being forced to play anyone else's game this year but against them, so for reference... the Mississippi State/Marquette game. Keep in mind this comes from a Mississippi State fan's perspective, so if you were to ask Bulldog Nation, I'm sure the majority of us would choose to play Stanford. Reason being the debacle against Marquette earlier in the year. And because the style of play of Stanford's to my eyes is not so tough for us, and I think we'll score 85 on them at will. I'd think Notre Dame may wanna avoid Stanford. Just like South Carolina better pray they don't get Albany because they shrivel up and prune against UConn. By that notion, the team I see as the absolute nightmare for Marquette is Louisville because of how physical they play, I doubt Marquette will get anything easy on them or get anything past them.

....

Marquette their style of play plays into NDs hands. For me I’m gonna see how ND looks in the next few weeks if they play well there will be very few teams that’ll put any fear in me if they play bad then I’ll be fearful of virtually every team.

 

[nwhoopfan]

In regards to shipping Notre Dame to Portland (where they would probably play Oregon), they got shipped to Spokane to play Oregon last year. Each year is supposed to be independent of any other year, but I think the committee remembers things like this and ND is probably less likely to be shipped out west again (although South Carolina gets shipped out of their area frequently I seem to recall their fans pointing out).

 

[Plebe]

In regards to shipping Notre Dame to Portland (where they would probably play Oregon), they got shipped to Spokane to play Oregon last year. Each year is supposed to be independent of any other year, but I think the committee remembers things like this and ND is probably less likely to be shipped out west again (although South Carolina gets shipped out of their area frequently I seem to recall their fans pointing out).

Oh boy, I cringe at the thought of reopening that can of worms among a certain fanbase, and so I hesitated to make this very point. But now that you did the deed, the following is one of the "additional considerations" in the committee's bracketing principles:

The committee shall attempt to avoid moving a team or a​

conference out of its natural region or geographic area​

an inordinate number of times and will examine the​

previous three tournament brackets to determine the​

number of times a team or conference has been assigned​

out of its natural region.​

​

Key word here is "attempt," since there are so many other principles that the committee has to take into account, some of which have to take precedence. But yeah, I suspect that the committee is loath to ship Notre Dame out to Portland just one year after they were sent to Spokane.

 

[FridaFriend]

Just some thoughts about Stanford and big games.

UCONN is 10-7 overall against Stanford, including some painful losses:

3/27/05: Stanford defeats UCONN in the first game of the NCAA regional.

4/6/08: Stanford defeats UCONN in the final four; the next game, in the fall, UCONN starts a 90 game win streak.

12/30/10: Stanford ends the 90 game win streak.

11/17/14: Stanford wins. Ends 47 game win streak; next UCONN game starts 111 game win streak. UCONN has not played Stanford since.

Beware of Stanford in big games. Tara is good.

 

[maccca3232]

I would point out that since re-alignment (last 5 tournaments) all top 4 seeds (and with it home court) have been either UConn or Power 5 teams.

The first reveal has 2 teams as top 4 seeds that could break that trend. Marquette (Big East) and Gonzaga (West Coast).

 

[IrishTiger]

Oh boy, I cringe at the thought of reopening that can of worms among a certain fanbase, and so I hesitated to make this very point. But now that you did the deed, the following is one of the "additional considerations" in the committee's bracketing principles:

The committee shall attempt to avoid moving a team or a​

conference out of its natural region or geographic area​

an inordinate number of times and will examine the​

previous three tournament brackets to determine the​

number of times a team or conference has been assigned​

out of its natural region.​

​

Key word here is "attempt," since there are so many other principles that the committee has to take into account, some of which have to take precedence. But yeah, I suspect that the committee is loath to ship Notre Dame out to Portland just one year after they were sent to Spokane.

I personally didn’t care that ND got shipped out West. It made it all the sweeter when ND beat Oregon basically in their backyard. It also made it really sweet because a lot of people thought Oregon was gonna Win.

 

[nwhoopfan]

when ND beat Oregon basically in their backyard

Nope. It's drivable distance, but Spokane is not all all in Oregon's backyard. Not even close. Crack open an atlas and see for yourself. Kinda western central Oregon to the northeast portion of Washington is quite a distance and not in the same footprint. Not a lot of UO fans wandering around in Spokane, they had to be imported for the game. Eugene to Spokane is 460 miles according to the internets. Storrs to Albany is 130. South Bend to Chicago is under 100. We're talking about an entirely different scale here, not to mention like I said there isn't a sizable portion of the local population predisposed to rooting for them. So, yeah, you're incorrect about that.

Now Oregon playing in Portland would be an entirely different story, I'll give you that as being in their back yard, with very much of a pro-UO crowd in town.

 

[triaddukefan]

I personally didn’t care that ND got shipped out West. It made it all the sweeter when ND beat Oregon basically in their backyard. It also made it really sweet because a lot of people thought Oregon was gonna Win.

Curious so I looked it up. Eugene to Spokane is 460 miles.... 7 hr 23 minute drive according to Google. Thats approximately the distance from Storrs to Richmond Va. Those backyards out west are huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge compared to the backyards of the east coast

 

[IrishTiger]

Nope. It's drivable distance, but Spokane is not all all in Oregon's backyard. Not even close. Crack open an atlas and see for yourself. Kinda western central Oregon to the northeast portion of Washington is quite a distance and not in the same footprint. Not a lot of UO fans wandering around in Spokane, they had to be imported for the game. Eugene to Spokane is 460 miles according to the internets. Storrs to Albany is 130. South Bend to Chicago is under 100. We're talking about an entirely different scale here, not to mention like I said there isn't a sizable portion of the local population predisposed to rooting for them. So, yeah, you're incorrect about that.

Now Oregon playing in Portland would be an entirely different story, I'll give you that as being in their back yard, with very much of a pro-UO crowd in town.

I didn’t mean literally but it’s heck of a lot closer then ND who had to take like a 5 Hr plane ride to get there.